Issued 2026-09-04 at $1.04 · now $0.84 (2026-09-16, −19.6% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-04 close, SDEV has typically landed between $0.69 and $1.50 — a range of −33.9% to +44.4% from the issuance price $1.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
105 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-03-09 – 2026-08-06 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-04 issuance close ($1.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-05, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SDEV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-04 close of $1.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $0.836 (-19.6%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.02 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.8747–$1.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.6875–$1.5
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-13 | −43.3% | −43.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-12 | −37.4% | −40.2% | +2.3% |
| 2026-05-08 | −36.2% | −36.2% | +9.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-09 | +40.3% | −6.5% | +57.3% |
| 2026-03-13 | +37.2% | −4.1% | +61.2% |
| 2026-06-05 | +33.9% | −9.8% | +33.9% |
112 overlapping windows · 2026-03-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | R01 Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,720 @ $1.09 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,668,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,720 @ $1.09 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,668,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Kazley Michael John | director | Sale | 24,720 @ $1.09 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,668,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | R01 Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 53,679,974 @ $0.85 | $45.6M | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,679,974 | Form 4 · filed 123 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Kazley Michael John | director | Purchase | 53,679,974 @ $0.85 | $45.6M | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,679,974 | Form 4 · filed 123 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,109,253 @ $0.85 | $42.6M | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,109,253 | Form 4 · filed 123 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
12 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | R01 Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 11,332,020 | 22,693,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 11,332,020 | 22,693,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kazley Michael John | director | Exercise | 11,332,020 | 22,693,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Framework Ventures IV L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 11,332,020 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kazley Michael John | director | Exercise | 11,332,020 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | R01 Fund LP | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 11,332,020 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Sit Swan | director | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Zheng Yenyou | director | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kazley Michael John | director | Award / grant | 4,118,828 | 4,118,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kazley Michael John | director | Award / grant | 7,722,802 | 7,722,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Freiman Paul E. | director | Award / grant | 140,000 | 140,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Law Tommy | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.