SCVLShoe Carnival, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-08-20
Horizon

Issued 2026-08-20 at $16.04 · now $16.04 (2026-08-10, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-20 close, SCVL has typically landed between $13.09 and $19.00 — a range of −18.4% to +18.5% from the issuance price $16.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,979 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-22 – 2026-07-10 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,375 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-20 issuance close ($16.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-18, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SCVL has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-20 close of $16.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$13.09worst · -18.4%$19best · +18.5%
  • now $16.04 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.97 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.6–$17.34
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.09–$19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,979 windows spanning 2006-09-22 to 2026-08-10. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−61.1%−61.1%+2.5%
2020-02-14−56.6%−56.6%+2.8%
2020-02-20−54.6%−62.1%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+86.6%+0.0%+86.6%
2009-03-06+82.1%−0.6%+82.1%
2009-03-09+68.9%+0.0%+83.2%

4,979 overlapping windows · 2006-09-22 – 2026-08-10 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
−3.3%
n=20
Feb
50%
−1.1%
n=20
Mar
55%
+5.8%
n=20
Apr
55%
+1.0%
n=20
May
45%
−1.1%
n=20
Jun
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Jul
60%
+1.3%
n=20
Aug
60%
+5.4%
n=20
Sep
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Nov
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Dec
65%
+6.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-082025-07$25$142026-04-02: 1 insider purchase, $500K — JACKSON W KERRY2025-10-15: 1 insider sale, $50K — Guthrie Andrea R.2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $50K2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $500K↑ buys↓ salesofficer JACKSON W KERRY — Purchase on 2026-04-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Guthrie Andrea R. — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-02JACKSON W KERRYofficerPurchase31,000 @ $16.13$500K+16.8% of holding−1.3%not yet — horizon still open215,529Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-15Guthrie Andrea R.directorSale2,477 @ $20.20$50K−9.2% of holding−14.7%−12.5%24,405Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-06WEAVER DELORES BtenPercentOwnerPurchase285,500 @ $33.91$9.7M+7.3% of holding−6.9%−39.8%4,173,529Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-06WEAVER WAYNE JdirectorPurchase285,500 @ $33.91$9.7M+7.3% of holding−6.9%−39.8%4,173,529Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-10WEAVER WAYNE JdirectorWithheld for tax1,6004,181,889Form 4
2026-06-10WEAVER DELORES BtenPercentOwnerWithheld for tax1,6004,181,889Form 4
2026-06-10Randolph DianedirectorAward / grant6,00720,995Form 4
2026-06-10Tomm Charles B.directorAward / grant6,00743,779Form 4
2026-06-10WEAVER WAYNE JdirectorAward / grant6,0074,183,489Form 4
2026-06-10WEAVER DELORES BtenPercentOwnerAward / grant6,0074,183,489Form 4
2026-06-10Guthrie Andrea R.directorAward / grant6,00730,412Form 4
2026-06-10ASCHLEMAN JAMES AdirectorAward / grant6,00726,295Form 4
2026-04-10WEAVER WAYNE JdirectorGift166,6664,333,180Form 4
2026-04-10WEAVER DELORES BtenPercentOwnerGift166,6664,333,180Form 4
2026-03-31Chilton Marc A.officerWithheld for tax4,35593,652Form 4
2026-03-31Gordon Tanya E.officerWithheld for tax1,98146,533Form 4
2026-03-03Gordon Tanya E.officerAward / grant13,44039,591Form 4
2026-03-03Gordon Tanya E.officerAward / grant8,92348,514Form 4
2026-03-03SIFFORD CLIFTON EdirectorAward / grant112,220412,019Form 4
2026-03-03Chilton Marc A.officerAward / grant18,03284,824Form 4
2026-03-03Chilton Marc A.officerAward / grant13,18398,007Form 4
2026-03-03JACKSON W KERRYofficerAward / grant14,040184,529Form 4
2026-01-02SIFFORD CLIFTON EdirectorWithheld for tax3,313299,657Form 4
2025-12-12WEAVER DELORES BtenPercentOwnerGift166,6664,499,846Form 4
2025-12-12WEAVER WAYNE JdirectorGift166,6664,499,846Form 4
2025-09-29JACKSON W KERRYofficerAward / grant20,000170,489Form 4
2025-09-16WEAVER WAYNE JdirectorGift166,6664,666,512Form 4
2025-09-16WEAVER DELORES BtenPercentOwnerGift166,6664,666,512Form 4
2025-06-25WEAVER DELORES BtenPercentOwnerWithheld for tax1,3534,177,482Form 4
2025-06-25WEAVER WAYNE JdirectorWithheld for tax1,3534,177,482Form 4
2025-06-25WEAVER WAYNE JdirectorAward / grant5,3064,178,835Form 4
2025-06-25ASCHLEMAN JAMES AdirectorAward / grant5,30620,288Form 4
2025-06-25Tomm Charles B.directorAward / grant5,30637,772Form 4
2025-06-25WEAVER DELORES BtenPercentOwnerAward / grant5,3064,178,835Form 4
2025-06-25Randolph DianedirectorAward / grant5,30614,988Form 4
2025-06-25Guthrie Andrea R.directorAward / grant5,30626,882Form 4
2025-06-25SIFFORD CLIFTON EdirectorAward / grant7,958302,560Form 4
2025-06-12WEAVER DELORES BtenPercentOwnerGift166,6664,833,178Form 4
2025-06-12WEAVER WAYNE JdirectorGift166,6664,833,178Form 4
2025-03-31Worden Mark J.directorWithheld for tax28,412283,261Form 4
2025-03-31Scibetta Carl N.officerWithheld for tax7,589115,324Form 4
2025-03-31Chilton Marc A.officerWithheld for tax7,34866,792Form 4
2025-03-31Edwards Patrick C.officerWithheld for tax2,72735,099Form 4
2025-03-12Edwards Patrick C.officerAward / grant7,63329,436Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.