Issued 2026-09-16 at $56.72 · now $56.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SCSC has typically landed between $49.53 and $66.13 — a range of −12.7% to +16.6% from the issuance price $56.72.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($56.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SCSC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $56.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $56.72 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $57.04 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $53.56–$60.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $49.53–$66.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −54.4% | −54.4% | +0.1% |
| 2020-02-18 | −53.5% | −54.2% | +0.3% |
| 2020-02-19 | −52.3% | −54.2% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +53.5% | +0.0% | +58.0% |
| 2020-03-16 | +50.5% | +0.0% | +60.5% |
| 2020-03-19 | +48.3% | +0.0% | +54.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
30%
−1.6%
n=20
Feb
50%
−0.8%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.9%
n=20
Apr
45%
+0.1%
n=20
May
55%
+2.7%
n=20
Jun
55%
+0.2%
n=20
Jul
55%
+2.8%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.7%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.7%
n=20
Oct
55%
+1.7%
n=20
Nov
50%
+1.2%
n=20
Dec
60%
+2.5%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 48,816 @ $58.14 | $2.8M | −19.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 200,698 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 6,692 @ $57.71 | $386K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 249,514 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Mathis Charles Alexander | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $58.00 | $174K | −10.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,027 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 1,851 @ $56.50 | $105K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 256,206 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 18,080 @ $55.39 | $1.0M | −8.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 202,598 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $57.03 | $108K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 200,698 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Ford Brandy | officer | Sale | 5,259 @ $57.43 | $302K | −34.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,941 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | Ford Brandy | officer | Sale | 34 @ $58.04 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,907 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Jones Stephen | officer | Sale | 8,703 @ $56.69 | $493K | −8.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 88,718 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Jones Stephen | officer | Sale | 1,297 @ $57.21 | $74K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 87,421 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 3,827 @ $35.89 | $137K | −2.4% of holding | +2.8% | +48.8% | 157,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 21,104 @ $35.76 | $755K | −11.6% of holding | +2.6% | +48.0% | 161,408 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 69 @ $36.40 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +2.6% | +48.0% | 161,339 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Mathis Charles Alexander | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $35.32 | $177K | +26.6% of holding | +7.7% | +37.9% | 23,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Mathis Charles Alexander | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $34.63 | $35K | +4.2% of holding | +7.7% | +37.9% | 24,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 7,281 @ $41.53 | $302K | −3.8% of holding | −3.2% | +8.0% | 182,512 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-16 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 2,178 @ $41.06 | $89K | −1.1% of holding | −3.2% | +8.0% | 189,793 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 9,459 @ $40.81 | $386K | −4.7% of holding | +1.4% | +10.2% | 192,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 100 @ $42.05 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | +1.4% | +10.2% | 191,971 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 982 @ $42.09 | $41K | −0.5% of holding | −3.1% | +6.9% | 201,530 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Jones Stephen | officer | Sale | 5,020 @ $42.30 | $212K | −5.7% of holding | −4.0% | +5.3% | 83,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 47,969 @ $44.34 | $2.1M | −19.2% of holding | −6.8% | −20.6% | 202,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 102,031 @ $44.96 | $4.6M | −31.0% of holding | −5.8% | −21.0% | 227,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Hayden Rachel | officer | Sale | 752 @ $43.57 | $33K | −4.8% of holding | −5.0% | −21.1% | 14,918 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-29 | Hayden Rachel | officer | Sale | 833 @ $44.36 | $37K | −7.1% of holding | −2.8% | −21.1% | 10,855 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-28 | Hayden Rachel | officer | Sale | 1,080 @ $44.69 | $48K | −8.5% of holding | −2.5% | −22.9% | 11,688 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Hayden Rachel | officer | Sale | 1,012 @ $43.27 | $44K | −7.1% of holding | −3.7% | −24.4% | 13,149 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-20 | Hayden Rachel | officer | Sale | 6,738 @ $41.27 | $278K | −33.8% of holding | −5.1% | −11.4% | 13,174 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-21 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $39.82 | $398K | −7.0% of holding | +1.4% | −17.0% | 132,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Jones Stephen | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $36.14 | $72K | −2.8% of holding | −4.4% | +5.7% | 69,816 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 1,994 @ $38.00 | $76K | −1.4% of holding | −0.4% | +5.1% | 142,760 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-07 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 15,930 @ $38.17 | $608K | −9.8% of holding | +2.3% | +2.8% | 146,830 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-07 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 2,076 @ $39.12 | $81K | −1.4% of holding | +2.3% | +2.8% | 144,754 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $38.91 | $584K | −8.4% of holding | +1.0% | +0.8% | 162,760 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | Ford Brandy | officer | Sale | 1,845 @ $49.38 | $91K | −16.3% of holding | −1.0% | −20.3% | 9,506 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
75 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Option exercise | 57,359 | 258,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Option exercise | 57,359 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Option exercise | 19,980 | 220,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Option exercise | 19,980 | 57,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Withheld for tax | 8,023 | 200,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jones Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,044 | 97,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Shana C | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,070 | 37,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ford Brandy | officer | Withheld for tax | 481 | 15,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Smith Shana C | officer | Award / grant | 7,636 | 38,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Award / grant | 53,899 | 208,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Webb Michael Reed | officer | Award / grant | 5,614 | 5,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Temple Elizabeth Orazem | director | Award / grant | 3,234 | 39,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Emory Frank Edward Jr. | director | Award / grant | 3,234 | 30,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ford Brandy | officer | Award / grant | 3,594 | 15,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Jones Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 16,619 | 99,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Mathis Charles Alexander | director | Award / grant | 3,234 | 28,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | NAGEL VERNON J | director | Award / grant | 3,234 | 14,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | RODEK JEFFREY R | director | Award / grant | 3,234 | 33,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ramoneda Dorothy F | director | Award / grant | 3,234 | 33,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Withheld for tax | 5,687 | 154,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | Jones Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,591 | 82,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | Smith Shana C | officer | Withheld for tax | 910 | 30,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | Ford Brandy | officer | Withheld for tax | 239 | 12,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Withheld for tax | 6,571 | 160,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Jones Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,426 | 84,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Ford Brandy | officer | Withheld for tax | 329 | 12,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Withheld for tax | 21,094 | 167,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Jones Stephen | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,569 | 86,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Smith Shana C | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,644 | 31,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Ford Brandy | officer | Withheld for tax | 331 | 12,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Award / grant | 30,662 | 188,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Smith Shana C | officer | Award / grant | 3,434 | 33,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Jones Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 10,106 | 93,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Smith Shana C | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,025 | 29,836 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Option exercise | 22,969 | 250,481 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-18 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Option exercise | 22,969 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-17 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Option exercise | 102,031 | 329,543 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-17 | BAUR MICHAEL L | director | Option exercise | 102,031 | 22,969 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-01 | Ford Brandy | officer | Withheld for tax | 119 | 8,370 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-01 | RODEK JEFFREY R | director | Award / grant | 3,693 | 29,993 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.