SCLStepan CoBasic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $61.76 · now $61.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SCL has typically landed between $53.22 and $69.69 — a range of −13.8% to +12.8% from the issuance price $61.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($61.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SCL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $61.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$53.22worst · -13.8%$69.69best · +12.8%
  • now $61.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $61.33 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $57.78–$64.89
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $53.22–$69.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−46.3%−46.3%+2.8%
2008-09-29−41.1%−44.8%+5.6%
2008-09-25−39.7%−39.7%+3.0%
3 best
2009-03-10+49.5%+0.0%+49.5%
2010-03-26+45.7%+0.0%+45.7%
2009-03-31+45.0%+0.0%+45.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
30%
−1.9%
n=20
Feb
45%
−2.3%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.1%
n=20
Apr
65%
+4.7%
n=20
May
65%
+1.1%
n=20
Jun
65%
+1.8%
n=20
Jul
60%
+3.1%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.4%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.0%
n=20
Oct
50%
+1.8%
n=20
Nov
65%
+4.1%
n=20
Dec
65%
+1.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$66$412025-08: 2 open-market sales, $502K↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-08-05STEPAN F QUINN JRdirectorSale3,700 @ $50.49$187K−2.3% of holding−5.0%+17.5%159,423Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04STEPAN F QUINN JRdirectorSale6,300 @ $49.96$315K−3.7% of holding−4.2%+11.2%166,123Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25Lewis SusandirectorPurchase500 @ $63.53$32K+35.8% of holding−4.9%−28.1%1,896Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

260 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26Lisle Shawn GofficerOption exercise1,1541,180Form 4
2026-08-26Lisle Shawn GofficerWithheld for tax339841Form 4
2026-08-26Lisle Shawn GofficerOption exercise1,1542,308Form 4
2026-08-10Velasquez Ruben DarioofficerOption exercise1,3581,394Form 4
2026-08-10Velasquez Ruben DarioofficerWithheld for tax398996Form 4
2026-08-10Velasquez Ruben DarioofficerOption exercise1,3582,716Form 4
2026-05-11Weitkamp Robin JosephofficerOption exercise9090Form 4
2026-05-11Weitkamp Robin JosephofficerWithheld for tax5040Form 4
2026-05-11Weitkamp Robin JosephofficerOption exercise90190Form 4
2026-05-08Painter Corning F.directorAward / grant2,5664,999Form 4
2026-05-08Delgado JoaquindirectorAward / grant2,56618,637Form 4
2026-05-08REED JAN STERNdirectorAward / grant2,56616,477Form 4
2026-05-08Dearth Randall S.directorAward / grant2,56616,672Form 4
2026-05-08Burgess LorindadirectorAward / grant2,5665,900Form 4
2026-05-08Lewis SusandirectorAward / grant2,5666,962Form 4
2026-05-08STEPAN F QUINN JRdirectorAward / grant2,566143,007Form 4
2026-05-01Haire Robert JosephofficerOption exercise5504,510Form 4
2026-05-01Haire Robert JosephofficerWithheld for tax1623,960Form 4
2026-05-01Haire Robert JosephofficerOption exercise5500Form 4
2026-04-13Galimberti Afonso Adriano JoseofficerAward / grant1,3101,310Form 4
2026-04-13Galimberti Afonso Adriano JoseofficerAward / grant2,6212,621Form 4
2026-04-13Galimberti Afonso Adriano JoseofficerAward / grant3,6943,694Form 4
2026-04-13Weitkamp Robin JosephofficerAward / grant2,8592,859Form 4
2026-04-13Weitkamp Robin JosephofficerAward / grant4,0304,030Form 4
2026-04-13Weitkamp Robin JosephofficerAward / grant1,4291,429Form 4
2026-03-04Rojo LuisdirectorOption exercise85719,704Form 4
2026-03-04Haire Robert JosephofficerOption exercise5714,290Form 4
2026-03-04Moriarty Sean ThomasofficerOption exercise57115,876Form 4
2026-03-04Stepan Richard FinnofficerOption exercise429242,644Form 4
2026-03-04Rojo LuisdirectorWithheld for tax25219,452Form 4
2026-03-04Haire Robert JosephofficerWithheld for tax1684,122Form 4
2026-03-04Moriarty Sean ThomasofficerWithheld for tax16615,710Form 4
2026-03-04Stepan Richard FinnofficerWithheld for tax149242,495Form 4
2026-03-04Haire Robert JosephofficerOption exercise571572Form 4
2026-03-04Moriarty Sean ThomasofficerOption exercise571572Form 4
2026-03-04Rojo LuisdirectorOption exercise857858Form 4
2026-03-04Stepan Richard FinnofficerOption exercise429429Form 4
2026-03-03Rojo LuisdirectorOption exercise4,45520,153Form 4
2026-03-03Haire Robert JosephofficerOption exercise1,6704,209Form 4
2026-03-03Moriarty Sean ThomasofficerOption exercise1,67015,875Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.