Issued 2026-09-16 at $80.69 · now $80.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SCI has typically landed between $72.96 and $89.75 — a range of −9.6% to +11.2% from the issuance price $80.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($80.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SCI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $80.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $80.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $81.12 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $77.75–$84.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $72.96–$89.75
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-06 | −40.2% | −43.2% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-05 | −38.8% | −38.8% | +7.8% |
| 2009-02-04 | −36.7% | −37.6% | +6.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-08 | +58.8% | +0.0% | +58.8% |
| 2009-03-12 | +46.1% | +0.0% | +46.1% |
| 2009-04-07 | +42.6% | −1.2% | +42.6% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Sale | 54,800 @ $86.04 | $4.7M | −29.8% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 129,379 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Sale | 235,893 @ $85.19 | $20.1M | −19.0% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,006,212 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Faulk John H | officer | Sale | 24,600 @ $85.65 | $2.1M | −30.0% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,410 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Sale | 17,498 @ $86.06 | $1.5M | −1.7% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,006,212 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | COELHO TONY | director | Sale | 7,700 @ $79.87 | $615K | −21.3% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,388 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Moore Tammy R | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $80.48 | $402K | −18.8% of holding | +1.7% | −10.1% | 21,654 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Nash Elisabeth G. | officer | Sale | 42,400 @ $76.32 | $3.2M | −27.8% of holding | +3.6% | −14.0% | 110,006 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Sale | 80,742 @ $81.53 | $6.6M | −39.2% of holding | −8.1% | −13.4% | 125,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Sale | 58 @ $81.38 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −8.1% | −13.4% | 125,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | WARING SUMNER J III | officer | Sale | 29,800 @ $83.13 | $2.5M | −9.2% of holding | −6.6% | −10.7% | 295,192 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | WARING SUMNER J III | officer | Sale | 500 @ $84.20 | $42K | −0.2% of holding | −6.6% | −10.7% | 295,192 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Ochoa Ellen | director | Sale | 9 @ $78.25 | $704 | −100.0% of holding | +3.7% | +0.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Ochoa Ellen | director | Sale | 2,514 @ $79.41 | $200K | −100.0% of holding | −0.3% | −1.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Sale | 17,520 @ $81.91 | $1.4M | −1.8% of holding | −2.8% | −7.4% | 982,333 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Sale | 18,089 @ $81.82 | $1.5M | −1.8% of holding | −4.2% | −9.4% | 982,333 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Faulk John H | officer | Sale | 14,550 @ $81.57 | $1.2M | −21.0% of holding | −5.1% | −10.0% | 54,681 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | COELHO TONY | director | Sale | 7,506 @ $80.61 | $605K | −17.1% of holding | −5.3% | −4.8% | 36,432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | COELHO TONY | director | Sale | 344 @ $80.52 | $28K | −0.9% of holding | −5.3% | −4.8% | 36,088 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Sale | 149,823 @ $80.49 | $12.1M | −13.2% of holding | −3.4% | −4.2% | 982,333 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Faulk John H | officer | Sale | 11,615 @ $80.27 | $932K | −17.5% of holding | −3.4% | −4.2% | 54,681 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Faulk John H | officer | Sale | 2,935 @ $80.60 | $237K | −5.1% of holding | −3.4% | −4.2% | 54,681 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Sale | 177 @ $80.84 | $14K | −0.0% of holding | −3.4% | −4.2% | 982,333 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | WARING SUMNER J III | officer | Sale | 36,100 @ $76.59 | $2.8M | −10.9% of holding | −2.7% | −8.1% | 295,192 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | WARING SUMNER J III | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $76.52 | $1.5M | −6.3% of holding | −2.7% | −8.1% | 295,192 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | COELHO TONY | director | Sale | 5,400 @ $75.94 | $410K | −10.9% of holding | −0.4% | −12.2% | 43,938 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $84.56 | $4.2M | −4.8% of holding | −1.0% | −21.5% | 982,333 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | COELHO TONY | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $79.29 | $515K | −12.2% of holding | +10.9% | −11.9% | 46,824 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | WALTRIP W BLAIR | director | Sale | 1,667 @ $86.20 | $144K | −3.6% of holding | −9.3% | −8.1% | 45,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | WALTRIP W BLAIR | director | Sale | 1,667 @ $86.20 | $144K | −3.7% of holding | −9.3% | −8.1% | 43,333 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
111 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | LUND VICTOR L | director | Discretionary | 193,900 | 15,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Option exercise | 54,800 | 184,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Option exercise | 54,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Option exercise | 235,893 | 1,242,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Faulk John H | officer | Option exercise | 24,600 | 82,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Option exercise | 17,498 | 1,023,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Option exercise | 235,893 | 17,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Option exercise | 17,498 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Faulk John H | officer | Option exercise | 24,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | COELHO TONY | director | Award / grant | 2,448 | 30,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Hill Thad | director | Award / grant | 2,448 | 4,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Ochoa Ellen | director | Award / grant | 2,448 | 48,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | LUND VICTOR L | director | Award / grant | 2,448 | 4,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SHAPER C PARK | director | Award / grant | 2,448 | 12,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | WATTS MARCUS A | director | Award / grant | 2,448 | 60,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Tucker Sara Martinez | director | Award / grant | 2,448 | 30,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Haussler Jakki L. | director | Award / grant | 2,448 | 9,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | WARING SUMNER J III | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,300 | 301,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Withheld for tax | 2,277 | 129,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Faulk John H | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,361 | 57,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Spilde Lori | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,353 | 18,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Moore Tammy R | officer | Withheld for tax | 653 | 22,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Nash Elisabeth G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 594 | 98,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Nash Elisabeth G. | officer | Gift | 6,250 | 98,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Nash Elisabeth G. | officer | Gift | 6,250 | 105,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Nash Elisabeth G. | officer | Award / grant | 1,365 | 111,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Faulk John H | officer | Award / grant | 4,090 | 58,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Faulk John H | officer | Award / grant | 17,507 | 17,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Moore Tammy R | officer | Award / grant | 1,525 | 23,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Moore Tammy R | officer | Award / grant | 6,525 | 6,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Award / grant | 4,648 | 131,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Award / grant | 4,648 | 17,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | TANZBERGER ERIC D | director | Award / grant | 39,788 | 39,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Spilde Lori | officer | Award / grant | 4,462 | 19,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Spilde Lori | officer | Award / grant | 19,098 | 19,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Award / grant | 33,879 | 1,016,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | RYAN THOMAS L | director | Award / grant | 145,004 | 145,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | WARING SUMNER J III | officer | Award / grant | 9,296 | 304,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | WARING SUMNER J III | officer | Award / grant | 39,788 | 39,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Nash Elisabeth G. | officer | Award / grant | 3,184 | 86,718 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-08 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-18 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-07 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-06-05 | 2026-05-14 | $1–15K |
| April Mcclain Delaney | House | sale | 2026-05-06 | 2026-04-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-07-16 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2023-05-11 | 2023-04-03 | $1–15K |
| Diana Harshbarger | House | sale | 2023-03-02 | 2023-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2022-12-29 | 2022-11-30 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | purchase | 2022-11-10 | 2022-10-06 | $1–15K |
| Diana Harshbarger | House | sale | 2022-10-28 | 2022-09-27 | $1–15K |
| Alan S. Lowenthal | House | purchase | 2022-10-14 | 2022-09-27 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.