SBUXStarbucks CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $97.34 · now $97.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SBUX has typically landed between $85.75 and $109.03 — a range of −11.9% to +12.0% from the issuance price $97.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($97.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SBUX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $97.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$85.75worst · -11.9%$109.03best · +12.0%
  • now $97.34 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $97.33 (-0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $92.87–$101.79
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $85.75–$109.03
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-16−37.0%−37.0%+0.5%
2020-02-18−36.9%−36.9%+1.0%
2008-10-30−36.8%−43.0%+4.3%
3 best
2009-07-10+42.7%+0.0%+42.7%
2009-07-07+42.4%+0.0%+44.1%
2009-07-08+40.3%+0.0%+43.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$117.7B
market cap
$1.32
EPS (TTM)
78.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$37.2B
'20'25
Net income$1.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr5.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-22.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-3.29
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $97.34$24.36$127.08
  • DCF (intrinsic)$44.28
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$31.44
  • Analyst target · range $90.00–$120.00$112.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$97.34

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.5%
n=18
Feb
63%
+1.3%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.6%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.6%
n=19
May
47%
+0.5%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Jul
79%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
53%
+2.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.4%
n=18
Nov
89%
+5.8%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$108$772026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $235K — BREWER BRADY2026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $236K — BREWER BRADY2026-07-06: 1 insider sale, $232K — BREWER BRADY2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $59K — BREWER BRADY2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $155K — BREWER BRADY2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $234K — BREWER BRADY2026-04-29: 1 insider sale, $210K — KELLY SARA2026-04-17: 1 insider sale, $59K — BREWER BRADY2026-04-06: 1 insider sale, $148K — BREWER BRADY2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $59K — BREWER BRADY2026-03-05: 2 insider sales, $402K — KELLY SARA, BREWER BRADY2025-11-10: 1 insider purchase, $995K — KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIG2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $995K2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $461K2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $416K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $234K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $214K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $232K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $236K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $235K↑ buys↓ salesdirector BREWER BRADY — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 5 days after the tradedirector BREWER BRADY — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BREWER BRADY — Sale on 2026-07-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BREWER BRADY — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BREWER BRADY — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BREWER BRADY — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer KELLY SARA — Sale on 2026-04-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BREWER BRADY — Sale on 2026-04-17, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BREWER BRADY — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BREWER BRADY — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer KELLY SARA — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BREWER BRADY — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIG — Purchase on 2025-11-10, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04BREWER BRADYdirectorSale2,229 @ $105.60$235K−3.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open73,149Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-08-05BREWER BRADYdirectorSale2,229 @ $105.99$236K−2.9% of holding−0.6%not yet — horizon still open75,135Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-06BREWER BRADYdirectorSale2,229 @ $104.00$232K−2.8% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open77,364Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-11BREWER BRADYdirectorSale588 @ $100.00$59K−0.7% of holding+1.6%not yet — horizon still open79,593Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05BREWER BRADYdirectorSale1,641 @ $94.33$155K−2.0% of holding+7.7%not yet — horizon still open80,181Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05BREWER BRADYdirectorSale2,229 @ $104.81$234K−2.7% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open81,559Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-29KELLY SARAofficerSale2,000 @ $105.00$210K−3.4% of holding−11.8%not yet — horizon still open57,653Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-17BREWER BRADYdirectorSale588 @ $100.00$59K−0.7% of holding+3.2%not yet — horizon still open83,788Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-06BREWER BRADYdirectorSale1,641 @ $90.00$148K−1.9% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open84,376Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09BREWER BRADYdirectorSale588 @ $100.00$59K−0.7% of holding−2.5%−10.7%86,017Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-05KELLY SARAofficerSale2,500 @ $97.12$243K−4.0% of holding−0.9%−6.2%59,609Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05BREWER BRADYdirectorSale1,641 @ $97.12$159K−1.9% of holding−0.9%−6.2%86,605Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-10KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIGdirectorPurchase11,700 @ $85.00$995K+28.3% of holding−1.1%+17.4%53,096Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

52 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Niccol Brian RdirectorWithheld for tax56,267428,697Form 4
2026-06-15KELLY SARAofficerWithheld for tax31657,567Form 4
2026-03-25SIEVERT G MICHAELdirectorAward / grant3,66710,878Form 4
2026-03-25Mohan NealdirectorAward / grant3,66711,187Form 4
2026-03-25Moyo Dambisa FdirectorAward / grant2,2653,615Form 4
2026-03-25Zhang WeidirectorAward / grant3,66712,376Form 4
2026-03-25MAYER MARISSA AdirectorAward / grant3,6676,041Form 4
2026-03-25SERVITJE DANIELdirectorAward / grant3,66711,187Form 4
2026-03-25KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIGdirectorAward / grant4,74657,752Form 4
2026-03-25ALLISON RICHARD E JRdirectorAward / grant3,99139,699Form 4
2026-03-25FORD BETHdirectorAward / grant3,93714,638Form 4
2026-03-25Campion AndrewdirectorAward / grant4,09930,133Form 4
2026-03-24Smith Cathy RdirectorWithheld for tax2,23163,752Form 4
2026-03-23KNUDSTORP JORGEN VIGdirectorWithheld for tax35553,006Form 4
2026-03-17GRAMS MICHAEL DAVIDofficerWithheld for tax98928,149Form 4
2025-11-19Niccol Brian RdirectorWithheld for tax11,822474,470Form 4
2025-11-19Smith Cathy RdirectorWithheld for tax1,90465,123Form 4
2025-11-19BREWER BRADYdirectorWithheld for tax1,42887,655Form 4
2025-11-19KELLY SARAofficerWithheld for tax1,02061,557Form 4
2025-11-18BREWER BRADYdirectorWithheld for tax4,41389,083Form 4
2025-11-18KELLY SARAofficerWithheld for tax2,04262,578Form 4
2025-11-14BREWER BRADYdirectorWithheld for tax1,20693,497Form 4
2025-11-14Lerman Bradley EdirectorWithheld for tax86442,676Form 4
2025-11-14KELLY SARAofficerWithheld for tax60364,620Form 4
2025-11-11KELLY SARAofficerAward / grant13,88665,223Form 4
2025-11-11Niccol Brian RdirectorAward / grant106,457486,292Form 4
2025-11-11RAMOS PILARofficerAward / grant16,20016,200Form 4
2025-11-11GRAMS MICHAEL DAVIDofficerAward / grant18,51428,750Form 4
2025-11-11Smith Cathy RdirectorAward / grant20,82967,027Form 4
2025-11-11KELLY SARAofficerAward / grant4,97051,337Form 4
2025-11-11BREWER BRADYdirectorAward / grant7,95178,502Form 4
2025-11-11BREWER BRADYdirectorAward / grant16,20094,702Form 4
2025-11-11Lerman Bradley EdirectorAward / grant5,42043,540Form 4
2025-11-10BREWER BRADYdirectorWithheld for tax82570,551Form 4
2025-11-10KELLY SARAofficerWithheld for tax6046,367Form 4
2025-09-15KELLY SARAofficerWithheld for tax14646,380Form 4
2025-09-09Niccol Brian RdirectorWithheld for tax56,320379,835Form 4
2025-07-01MAYER MARISSA AdirectorAward / grant2,3262,326Form 4
2025-07-01Moyo Dambisa FdirectorAward / grant1,3501,350Form 4
2025-06-16KELLY SARAofficerWithheld for tax30846,278Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
James E. BanksSenatesale2026-04-202026-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.