Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.60 · now $11.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SBSW has typically landed between $9.11 and $14.95 — a range of −21.5% to +28.9% from the issuance price $11.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,399 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-02-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SBSW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.57 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.19–$12.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.11–$14.95
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −70.9% | −70.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −69.4% | −70.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −67.0% | −67.0% | +10.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-01-13 | +80.7% | +0.0% | +80.7% |
| 2020-03-19 | +79.5% | −9.1% | +87.7% |
| 2016-01-12 | +76.4% | +0.0% | +76.4% |
3,399 overlapping windows · 2013-02-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Menell Richard Peter | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $2.19 | $33K | +148.1% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,125 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Keyter Charl | director | Purchase | 200,000 @ $2.24 | $448K | +10.0% of holding | −7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,200,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Nkosi Themba George | officer | Purchase | 11,865 @ $2.91 | $35K | +5.2% of holding | −12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,248 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Carter Charles Edward | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $11.40 | $114K | +5.9% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 180,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | Menell Richard Peter | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $11.43 | $29K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Keyter Charl | director | Purchase | 35,000 @ $2.70 | $95K | +1.8% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Keyter Charl | director | Purchase | 148,819 @ $11.63 | $1.7M | +8.2% of holding | +4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,965,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Maphai Thabane Vincent | director | Purchase | 12,000 @ $13.34 | $160K | +9.4% of holding | −3.8% | −23.1% | 140,178 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.