SBRASabra Health Care REIT, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilitiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.09 · now $20.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SBRA has typically landed between $17.95 and $22.39 — a range of −10.7% to +11.4% from the issuance price $20.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SBRA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$17.95worst · -10.7%$22.39best · +11.4%
  • now $20.09 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.41 (+1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.57–$21.24
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.95–$22.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−73.2%−73.2%+1.0%
2020-02-14−66.8%−66.8%+0.3%
2020-02-13−65.2%−65.2%+4.3%
3 best
2020-03-18+121.9%+0.0%+125.6%
2020-03-17+70.7%−20.0%+80.4%
2020-03-16+70.6%−20.5%+79.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+4.2%
n=20
Feb
60%
−0.4%
n=20
Mar
60%
−0.4%
n=20
Apr
60%
+0.2%
n=20
May
60%
+2.4%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Jul
70%
+3.4%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.1%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.4%
n=20
Oct
50%
+2.1%
n=20
Nov
40%
+0.3%
n=20
Dec
50%
+1.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$22$162026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $4.2M — MATROS RICHARD K2026-03-25: 1 insider sale, $302K — FLORES JESSICA2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $302K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $4.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector MATROS RICHARD K — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer FLORES JESSICA — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08MATROS RICHARD KdirectorSale200,000 @ $20.83$4.2M−10.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,657,686Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-25FLORES JESSICAofficerSale15,231 @ $19.86$302K−17.5% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open71,709Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-20FOSTER MICHAEL JdirectorSale11,000 @ $18.22$200K−14.5% of holding+0.5%−4.4%64,725Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24Cusack CatherinedirectorPurchase1,500 @ $15.92$24K+2.5% of holding+11.4%+17.1%60,583Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-21Cusack CatherinedirectorPurchase1,000 @ $16.43$16K+1.7% of holding+13.2%+19.0%59,083Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

127 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Barbarosh Craig A.directorAward / grant79154,580Form 4
2026-08-31KATZMANN LYNNE SdirectorAward / grant79186,912Form 4
2026-08-31FOSTER MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant79182,834Form 4
2026-08-31FLORES JESSICAofficerAward / grant38272,476Form 4
2026-08-31Cusack CatherinedirectorAward / grant79182,847Form 4
2026-08-31Costa Michael LourencoofficerAward / grant4,158469,879Form 4
2026-08-31Kono AnndirectorAward / grant79168,977Form 4
2026-08-31MATROS RICHARD KdirectorAward / grant13,867956,268Form 4
2026-08-31Smith DarrinofficerAward / grant495116,919Form 4
2026-08-31Malehorn Jeffrey A.directorAward / grant791117,137Form 4
2026-06-17Kono AnndirectorAward / grant8,31068,186Form 4
2026-06-17KATZMANN LYNNE SdirectorAward / grant8,31086,121Form 4
2026-06-17Cusack CatherinedirectorAward / grant8,31082,056Form 4
2026-06-17Malehorn Jeffrey A.directorAward / grant8,310116,346Form 4
2026-06-17FOSTER MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant8,31082,043Form 4
2026-06-17Barbarosh Craig A.directorAward / grant8,31063,326Form 4
2026-05-29MATROS RICHARD KdirectorAward / grant14,003942,401Form 4
2026-05-29Costa Michael LourencoofficerAward / grant4,200465,721Form 4
2026-05-29Cusack CatherinedirectorAward / grant81773,746Form 4
2026-05-29FLORES JESSICAofficerAward / grant38572,094Form 4
2026-05-29FOSTER MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant81774,233Form 4
2026-05-29FOSTER MICHAEL JdirectorGift50073,733Form 4
2026-05-29KATZMANN LYNNE SdirectorAward / grant81777,811Form 4
2026-05-29Kono AnndirectorAward / grant81759,876Form 4
2026-05-29Barbarosh Craig A.directorAward / grant81755,016Form 4
2026-05-29Malehorn Jeffrey A.directorAward / grant817108,036Form 4
2026-05-29Smith DarrinofficerAward / grant501116,424Form 4
2026-05-27FOSTER MICHAEL JdirectorGift49073,416Form 4
2026-05-22FOSTER MICHAEL JdirectorGift81373,906Form 4
2026-02-27FLORES JESSICAofficerAward / grant36886,940Form 4
2026-02-27Costa Michael LourencoofficerAward / grant4,005461,521Form 4
2026-02-27Cusack CatherinedirectorAward / grant78172,929Form 4
2026-02-27Kono AnndirectorAward / grant78159,059Form 4
2026-02-27FOSTER MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant78174,719Form 4
2026-02-27Malehorn Jeffrey A.directorAward / grant781107,219Form 4
2026-02-27KATZMANN LYNNE SdirectorAward / grant78176,994Form 4
2026-02-27MATROS RICHARD KdirectorAward / grant13,358928,398Form 4
2026-02-27Barbarosh Craig A.directorAward / grant78154,199Form 4
2026-02-27Smith DarrinofficerAward / grant478115,923Form 4
2026-02-10Smith DarrinofficerWithheld for tax6,390115,445Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.