SBH · TickerCove

SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.01 · now $16.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SBH has typically landed between $13.28 and $19.53 — a range of −17.1% to +22.0% from the issuance price $16.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,965 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-11-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$16.01 · 81% of range

$11.82 low$17 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.4%

typical move · IQR 17.4%

−17.1%worst (p90)+22.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SBH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $16.01 (+0.0%)
typical $15.78 (-1.4%)
middle 50% $14.39–$17.17
90% range $13.28–$19.53

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,965 windows spanning 2006-11-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-25	−51.8%	−51.8%	+0.0%
2008-10-21	−51.1%	−51.1%	+0.0%
2008-09-26	−50.2%	−51.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20	+103.0%	+0.0%	+107.4%
2008-11-19	+86.0%	−10.3%	+86.0%
2008-11-21	+65.9%	+0.0%	+76.7%

4,965 overlapping windows · 2006-11-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−0.5%

n=20

Feb

65%

+0.0%

n=20

Mar

55%

+1.1%

n=20

Apr

50%

+0.9%

n=20

May

40%

+0.8%

n=20

Jun

50%

−2.2%

n=20

Jul

60%

+1.7%

n=20

Aug

45%

+1.3%

n=20

Sep

40%

+0.2%

n=20

Oct

47%

−2.2%

n=19

Nov

79%

+8.2%

n=19

Dec

55%

+2.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-08	Platz Marlo Michelle Cormier	director	Sale	42,771 @ $12.70	$543K	−23.6% of holding	+13.9%	not yet — horizon still open	138,145	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11	McIntosh Kim	officer	Sale	5,900 @ $15.71	$93K	−21.7% of holding	+0.8%	−22.6%	21,295	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01	Sherman Scott C	officer	Sale	15,000 @ $16.27	$244K	−20.7% of holding	−12.7%	−37.1%	57,585	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-04	Rangel Max R.	director	Purchase	3,500 @ $14.07	$49K	ownership Δ n/a	+14.1%	+0.5%	3,500	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13	Perelman Debra Golding	director	Purchase	2,300 @ $13.48	$31K	ownership Δ n/a	+8.8%	+6.2%	2,300	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-08	Paulonis Denise	director	Purchase	4,500 @ $11.74	$53K	+1.2% of holding	+23.3%	+36.0%	366,865	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-07	FERGUSON DIANA SUE	director	Purchase	2,500 @ $12.02	$30K	+46.2% of holding	+22.4%	+27.8%	7,912	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-08	Platz Marlo Michelle Cormier	director	Option exercise	31,024	169,169	Form 4
2026-06-08	Platz Marlo Michelle Cormier	director	Option exercise	11,747	180,916	Form 4
2026-06-08	Platz Marlo Michelle Cormier	director	Option exercise	31,024	0	Form 4
2026-06-08	Platz Marlo Michelle Cormier	director	Option exercise	11,747	0	Form 4
2026-05-13	Lee Adrianne	director	Award / grant	98,280	98,280	Form 4
2026-04-21	Cox Erin Nealy	director	Option exercise	14,532	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	Cox Erin Nealy	director	Option exercise	15,470	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	Cox Erin Nealy	director	Option exercise	12,458	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	Cox Erin Nealy	director	Option exercise	8,045	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	Cox Erin Nealy	director	Option exercise	50,505	55,969	Form 4
2026-01-22	BOYER JEFFREY N	director	Option exercise	14,532	42,460	Form 4
2026-01-22	Perelman Debra Golding	director	Award / grant	9,975	9,975	Form 4
2026-01-22	Flur Dorlisa K	director	Award / grant	9,975	9,975	Form 4
2026-01-22	Flur Dorlisa K	director	Option exercise	14,532	57,138	Form 4
2026-01-22	Flur Dorlisa K	director	Option exercise	14,532	0	Form 4
2026-01-22	FERGUSON DIANA SUE	director	Award / grant	9,975	9,975	Form 4
2026-01-22	Rangel Max R.	director	Award / grant	9,975	9,975	Form 4
2026-01-22	Molloy Lawrence	director	Option exercise	14,532	0	Form 4
2026-01-22	Molloy Lawrence	director	Award / grant	9,975	9,975	Form 4
2026-01-22	Molloy Lawrence	director	Option exercise	14,532	30,002	Form 4
2026-01-22	Cox Erin Nealy	director	Award / grant	9,975	9,975	Form 4
2026-01-22	Bishop Rachel Rothe	director	Option exercise	14,532	0	Form 4
2026-01-22	Bishop Rachel Rothe	director	Award / grant	9,975	9,975	Form 4
2026-01-22	Bishop Rachel Rothe	director	Option exercise	14,532	36,231	Form 4
2026-01-22	Head James M	director	Award / grant	9,975	9,975	Form 4
2026-01-22	BOYER JEFFREY N	director	Option exercise	14,532	0	Form 4
2026-01-22	BOYER JEFFREY N	director	Award / grant	9,975	9,975	Form 4
2025-11-15	Paulonis Denise	director	Withheld for tax	153,547	607,103	Form 4
2025-11-15	Platz Marlo Michelle Cormier	director	Withheld for tax	29,087	138,145	Form 4
2025-11-15	Spinks Mark Gregory	officer	Withheld for tax	24,657	128,976	Form 4
2025-11-15	Goss John Howard JR	officer	Withheld for tax	24,657	115,484	Form 4
2025-11-15	Sherman Scott C	officer	Withheld for tax	17,984	72,585	Form 4
2025-11-15	McIntosh Kim	officer	Withheld for tax	6,272	27,195	Form 4
2025-11-15	Sherman Scott C	officer	Option exercise	3,299	0	Form 4
2025-11-15	Sherman Scott C	officer	Option exercise	2,950	0	Form 4
2025-11-15	Sherman Scott C	officer	Option exercise	3,885	0	Form 4
2025-11-15	Spinks Mark Gregory	officer	Option exercise	12,607	25,214	Form 4
2025-11-15	Spinks Mark Gregory	officer	Option exercise	17,667	17,669	Form 4
2025-11-15	Spinks Mark Gregory	officer	Option exercise	12,132	0	Form 4
2025-11-15	Spinks Mark Gregory	officer	Option exercise	4,304	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i