SBGI · TickerCove

SBGISinclair, Inc.Communication Services · Broadcastingas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.03 · now $14.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SBGI has typically landed between $11.30 and $17.71 — a range of −19.5% to +26.2% from the issuance price $14.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$14.03 · 43% of range

$12.1 low$16.58 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.5%

typical move · IQR 15.8%

−19.5%worst (p90)+26.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SBGI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $14.03 (+0.0%)
typical $13.81 (-1.5%)
middle 50% $12.71–$14.92
90% range $11.3–$17.71

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-01-06	−63.1%	−63.1%	+1.7%
2009-01-07	−62.7%	−63.7%	+0.0%
2009-01-13	−62.2%	−62.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-15	+111.7%	+0.0%	+156.8%
2009-07-14	+104.0%	−2.7%	+149.8%
2009-08-17	+99.9%	+0.0%	+99.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+3.0%

n=20

Feb

45%

+1.3%

n=20

Mar

45%

−0.1%

n=20

Apr

50%

+4.6%

n=20

May

45%

+1.4%

n=20

Jun

40%

+0.2%

n=20

Jul

50%

−0.7%

n=20

Aug

45%

−0.4%

n=20

Sep

40%

+0.6%

n=20

Oct

45%

+1.6%

n=20

Nov

70%

+6.8%

n=20

Dec

60%

+1.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-10	Gibber David B	officer	Sale	28,828 @ $13.74	$396K	−13.5% of holding	−0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	184,244	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Gibber David B	officer	Sale	418 @ $13.82	$6K	−0.2% of holding	−0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	184,244	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-02	KEITH DANIEL C	director	Sale	17,000 @ $15.02	$255K	−40.4% of holding	−11.5%	not yet — horizon still open	25,122	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-04	Legg Benson E	director	Sale	31,500 @ $14.60	$460K	−44.3% of holding	−11.6%	not yet — horizon still open	39,665	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-02	KEITH DANIEL C	director	Sale	22,613 @ $13.10	$296K	−47.5% of holding	+3.8%	not yet — horizon still open	25,027	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01	KEITH DANIEL C	director	Sale	1,398 @ $13.10	$18K	−2.9% of holding	+8.3%	not yet — horizon still open	47,640	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31	KEITH DANIEL C	director	Sale	17,989 @ $13.10	$236K	−26.8% of holding	+11.8%	not yet — horizon still open	49,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-11	Weisbord Robert	officer	Sale	3,672 @ $13.97	$51K	−1.3% of holding	+2.0%	−12.0%	280,853	Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2026-03-02	Weisbord Robert	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $15.70	$157K	−3.4% of holding	−11.8%	−20.1%	284,525	Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade
2026-01-06	Friedman Howard E	director	Sale	14,713 @ $15.11	$222K	−15.9% of holding	−7.1%	−9.4%	77,685	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-19	Legg Benson E	director	Sale	6,548 @ $15.81	$104K	−8.4% of holding	−4.2%	−17.0%	71,165	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11	Gibber David B	officer	Sale	29,376 @ $16.67	$490K	−15.1% of holding	−12.8%	−28.4%	165,272	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-11	Gibber David B	officer	Sale	2,904 @ $16.67	$48K	ownership Δ n/a	−12.8%	−28.4%	397	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-09	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	63,073 @ $12.91	$814K	+4.3% of holding	+4.9%	−23.1%	1,526,029	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-08	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	122,072 @ $13.66	$1.7M	+9.1% of holding	−2.1%	−29.2%	1,462,956	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	7,719 @ $13.20	$102K	+0.6% of holding	+6.9%	−23.4%	1,340,884	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-04	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	125,197 @ $13.90	$1.7M	+10.4% of holding	+2.2%	−27.8%	1,333,165	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-03	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	125,197 @ $14.98	$1.9M	+11.6% of holding	−1.2%	−23.6%	1,207,968	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-24	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	17,902 @ $16.45	$294K	+1.7% of holding	−6.6%	−24.0%	1,082,771	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-21	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	92,664 @ $17.11	$1.6M	+9.5% of holding	−9.4%	−32.0%	1,064,869	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-19	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	4,638 @ $15.90	$74K	+0.5% of holding	−7.0%	−26.8%	967,589	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-18	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	61,591 @ $15.79	$973K	+6.8% of holding	−6.4%	−25.9%	962,951	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	42,595 @ $14.08	$600K	+5.0% of holding	−2.1%	−17.6%	901,360	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	39,896 @ $13.94	$556K	+4.9% of holding	−0.4%	−21.2%	858,765	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	67,131 @ $13.96	$937K	+8.9% of holding	+8.1%	−15.3%	818,869	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-06	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	22,752 @ $14.28	$325K	+3.1% of holding	+7.4%	−13.9%	751,738	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	30,296 @ $14.09	$427K	+4.3% of holding	+12.4%	−9.1%	728,986	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	53,126 @ $13.73	$729K	+8.2% of holding	+22.7%	−2.9%	698,690	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03	SMITH DAVID D	director	Purchase	38,410 @ $14.01	$538K	+6.3% of holding	+20.0%	−2.6%	645,564	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-10	Gibber David B	officer	Discretionary	5,799	184,244	Form 4
2026-06-24	BOCHENEK DAVID R	officer	Other acquisition	8,617	17,581	Form 4
2026-06-24	BOCHENEK DAVID R	officer	Other acquisition	8,617	17,581	Form 4
2026-06-04	Legg Benson E	director	Award / grant	17,095	56,760	Form 4
2026-06-04	SMITH ROBERT E	director	Award / grant	17,095	114,808	Form 4
2026-06-04	KEITH DANIEL C	director	Award / grant	17,095	42,122	Form 4
2026-06-04	Friedman Howard E	director	Award / grant	17,095	94,780	Form 4
2026-06-04	Legg Benson E	director	Award / grant	17,095	56,760	Form 4
2026-06-04	Beyer Laurie R	director	Award / grant	17,095	84,208	Form 4
2026-06-04	SMITH ROBERT E	director	Award / grant	17,095	114,808	Form 4
2026-06-04	CARSON BENJAMIN SR	director	Award / grant	17,095	77,660	Form 4
2026-06-04	CARSON BENJAMIN SR	director	Award / grant	17,095	77,660	Form 4
2026-06-04	Beyer Laurie R	director	Award / grant	17,095	84,208	Form 4
2026-06-04	Friedman Howard E	director	Award / grant	17,095	94,780	Form 4
2026-06-04	KEITH DANIEL C	director	Award / grant	17,095	42,122	Form 4
2026-03-30	SMITH DAVID D	director	Gift	1,000,000	2,911,072	Form 4
2026-03-30	SMITH DAVID D	director	Award / grant	1,000,000	1,000,000	Form 4
2026-03-30	SMITH DAVID D	director	Gift	1,000,000	5,911,072	Form 4
2026-03-30	SMITH DAVID D	director	Gift	1,000,000	3,911,072	Form 4
2026-03-30	SMITH DAVID D	director	Gift	1,000,000	4,911,072	Form 4
2026-03-27	SMITH DAVID D	director	Other acquisition	626,300	5,032,172	Form 4
2026-03-27	SMITH DAVID D	director	Other acquisition	626,300	6,911,072	Form 4
2026-03-27	SMITH DAVID D	director	Other acquisition	626,300	5,658,472	Form 4
2026-03-27	SMITH DAVID D	director	Other acquisition	626,300	6,284,772	Form 4
2026-03-27	SMITH DAVID D	director	Other acquisition	373,700	4,032,172	Form 4
2026-03-27	SMITH DAVID D	director	Other acquisition	373,700	3,284,772	Form 4
2026-03-27	SMITH DAVID D	director	Other acquisition	373,700	3,658,472	Form 4
2026-03-27	SMITH DAVID D	director	Other acquisition	373,700	4,405,872	Form 4
2026-03-09	SMITH J DUNCAN	director	Gift	629,700	5,293,086	Form 4
2026-03-09	SMITH J DUNCAN	director	Award / grant	629,700	629,700	Form 4
2026-03-08	Ripley Christopher	officer	Withheld for tax	36,853	824,032	Form 4
2026-03-08	Gibber David B	officer	Withheld for tax	11,056	213,072	Form 4
2026-03-08	Smith Jason Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	9,214	291,905	Form 4
2026-03-08	Bray Justin LeRoy	officer	Award / grant	2,652	51,314	Form 4
2026-03-06	SMITH J DUNCAN	director	Other acquisition	629,700	5,922,786	Form 4
2026-02-28	Ripley Christopher	officer	Withheld for tax	114,206	860,885	Form 4
2026-02-28	Smith Jason Ryan	officer	Withheld for tax	34,099	301,119	Form 4
2026-02-28	Gibber David B	officer	Withheld for tax	16,902	224,128	Form 4
2026-02-28	Bray Justin LeRoy	officer	Withheld for tax	4,809	56,653	Form 4
2026-02-27	Weisbord Robert	officer	Disposition	92,081	300,042	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i