SBACSBA Communications CorporationReal Estate · REIT - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $180.02 · now $180.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SBAC has typically landed between $157.28 and $200.38 — a range of −12.6% to +11.3% from the issuance price $180.02.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($180.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SBAC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $180.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$157.28worst · -12.6%$200.38best · +11.3%
  • now $180.02 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $178.25 (-1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $168.74–$187.76
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $157.28–$200.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-10−58.7%−58.7%+0.0%
2008-09-11−54.1%−57.5%+0.0%
2008-09-08−49.0%−49.0%+0.2%
3 best
2008-11-20+43.9%+0.0%+59.0%
2020-03-23+42.3%+0.0%+46.1%
2008-11-21+40.8%+0.0%+56.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$18.4B
market cap
$9.51
EPS (TTM)
18.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$2.8B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr37.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-21.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-3.16
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $180.02$146.10$637.95
  • DCF (intrinsic)$604.03
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$312.62
  • Analyst target · range $205.00–$245.00$225.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$180.02

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.9%
n=18
Feb
63%
+1.2%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.6%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.7%
n=19
May
42%
+0.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.4%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.8%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.2%
n=18
Nov
50%
+1.3%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$222$1642026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $55K — Krouse George R Jr2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $55K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Krouse George R Jr — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Krouse George R JrdirectorSale300 @ $182.67$55K−3.4% of holding+1.9%not yet — horizon still open8,512Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-01LANGER JACKdirectorSale3,500 @ $240.17$841K−22.5% of holding−9.7%−42.3%12,022Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-01LANGER JACKdirectorSale1,359 @ $241.50$328K−11.3% of holding−9.7%−42.3%10,663Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-01LANGER JACKdirectorSale141 @ $242.12$34K−1.3% of holding−9.7%−42.3%10,522Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

296 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-01DAY DONALDofficerWithheld for tax1719,992Form 4
2026-08-01DAY DONALDofficerOption exercise45710,163Form 4
2026-08-01DAY DONALDofficerOption exercise457457Form 4
2026-05-22Chan Mary SdirectorAward / grant1,1081,108Form 4
2026-05-22BEEBE KEVIN LdirectorAward / grant1,1081,108Form 4
2026-05-22BERNSTEIN STEVEN EdirectorAward / grant1,1081,108Form 4
2026-05-22BOWEN LAURIEdirectorAward / grant1,1081,108Form 4
2026-05-22Johnson Jay LeCoryelledirectorAward / grant1,1081,108Form 4
2026-05-22Krouse George R JrdirectorAward / grant1,1081,108Form 4
2026-05-22LANGER JACKdirectorAward / grant1,1081,108Form 4
2026-05-22STOOPS JEFFREYdirectorAward / grant1,1081,108Form 4
2026-05-22Wilson Amy EdirectorAward / grant1,1081,108Form 4
2026-05-13LANGER JACKdirectorWithheld for tax1,4968,704Form 4
2026-05-13BERNSTEIN STEVEN EdirectorWithheld for tax1,4967,140Form 4
2026-05-13BEEBE KEVIN LdirectorWithheld for tax1,49216,644Form 4
2026-05-13BERNSTEIN STEVEN EdirectorOption exercise1,5018,636Form 4
2026-05-13LANGER JACKdirectorOption exercise1,50110,200Form 4
2026-05-13BEEBE KEVIN LdirectorOption exercise1,50118,136Form 4
2026-05-13Krouse George R JrdirectorWithheld for tax5008,812Form 4
2026-05-13Krouse George R JrdirectorOption exercise5019,312Form 4
2026-05-13BEEBE KEVIN LdirectorOption exercise1,5010Form 4
2026-05-13Krouse George R JrdirectorOption exercise5010Form 4
2026-05-13LANGER JACKdirectorOption exercise1,5010Form 4
2026-05-13BERNSTEIN STEVEN EdirectorOption exercise1,5010Form 4
2026-05-01BOWEN LAURIEdirectorWithheld for tax3261,072Form 4
2026-05-01Chan Mary SdirectorWithheld for tax3266,422Form 4
2026-05-01Johnson Jay LeCoryelledirectorWithheld for tax3261,665Form 4
2026-05-01LANGER JACKdirectorWithheld for tax3268,699Form 4
2026-05-01Krouse George R JrdirectorWithheld for tax3268,811Form 4
2026-05-01Chan Mary SdirectorOption exercise331663Form 4
2026-05-01Wilson Amy EdirectorOption exercise2481,069Form 4
2026-05-01Wilson Amy EdirectorOption exercise3021,371Form 4
2026-05-01Wilson Amy EdirectorOption exercise3311,702Form 4
2026-05-01Wilson Amy EdirectorOption exercise302302Form 4
2026-05-01Wilson Amy EdirectorOption exercise331663Form 4
2026-05-01Wilson Amy EdirectorOption exercise2480Form 4
2026-05-01Krouse George R JrdirectorOption exercise3028,806Form 4
2026-05-01Krouse George R JrdirectorOption exercise3319,137Form 4
2026-05-01Krouse George R JrdirectorOption exercise2480Form 4
2026-05-01Krouse George R JrdirectorOption exercise302302Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-27$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-10-222025-09-25$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-10-222025-09-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.