Issued 2026-08-13 at $1.03 · now $0.94 (2026-08-13, −9.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, SAVA has typically landed between $0.69 and $1.54 — a range of −33.5% to +49.2% from the issuance price $1.03.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,972 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($1.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SAVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $1.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $0.937 (-9.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $0.9855 (-4.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $0.8582–$1.11
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.6853–$1.54
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2018-05-30 | −79.4% | −79.4% | +2.8% |
| 2018-05-31 | −79.0% | −79.3% | +3.5% |
| 2018-06-15 | −78.6% | −79.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-12-31 | +1189.1% | +0.0% | +1189.1% |
| 2021-01-04 | +797.0% | +0.0% | +1143.6% |
| 2021-01-06 | +641.0% | +0.0% | +973.5% |
4,972 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | Anderson Robert Eugene Jr | director | Purchase | 8,600 @ $2.90 | $25K | ownership Δ n/a | −26.6% | −60.0% | 8,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Barry Richard | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $2.76 | $414K | +19.0% of holding | −14.8% | −62.1% | 938,060 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Barry Richard | director | Purchase | 73,385 @ $2.75 | $202K | +10.3% of holding | −24.1% | −65.5% | 788,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Cook Robert Christopher | officer | Purchase | 13,725 @ $2.91 | $40K | ownership Δ n/a | +14.3% | −39.8% | 13,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Barry Richard | director | Purchase | 7,172 @ $2.28 | $16K | +1.0% of holding | +70.9% | −18.8% | 714,675 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Barry Richard | director | Purchase | 46,908 @ $2.29 | $107K | +7.1% of holding | +92.3% | −16.9% | 707,503 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Barry Richard | director | Purchase | 400 @ $2.25 | $900 | +0.1% of holding | +92.3% | −16.9% | 660,595 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Barry Richard | director | Purchase | 185,233 @ $2.24 | $415K | +39.0% of holding | +87.2% | −20.6% | 660,195 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Barry Richard | director | Purchase | 5,400 @ $2.13 | $12K | +1.2% of holding | +87.2% | −20.6% | 474,962 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
11 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | Bir Dawn Carter | director | Award / grant | 53,000 | 53,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | SCANNON PATRICK J MD PHD | director | Award / grant | 26,500 | 26,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Anderson Robert Eugene Jr | director | Award / grant | 26,500 | 26,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | GUSSIN ROBERT Z | director | Award / grant | 26,500 | 26,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Gravier Pierre | director | Award / grant | 26,500 | 26,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Nicaise Claude | director | Award / grant | 26,500 | 26,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | O DONNELL MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 26,500 | 26,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-17 | Barry Richard | director | Award / grant | 350,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-17 | Nassif Freda | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-17 | Schoen Eric | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-17 | Cook Robert Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.