Issued 2026-09-10 at $86.44 · now $86.44 (2026-08-31, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-10 close, SATS has typically landed between $69.25 and $111.70 — a range of −19.9% to +29.2% from the issuance price $86.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,651 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-06-29 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 54.0% (90% CI 51.8–56.2%, ≈1,443 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-10 issuance close ($86.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-09, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SATS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-10 close of $86.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $86.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $85.98 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $77.78–$94.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $69.25–$111.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,651 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-31. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2011-07-22 | −37.5% | −38.3% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-25 | −37.2% | −37.6% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-21 | −37.1% | −37.1% | +2.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-08 | +208.6% | +0.0% | +208.6% |
| 2025-08-07 | +194.8% | −1.0% | +194.8% |
| 2025-08-11 | +190.7% | +0.0% | +204.1% |
4,651 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-31 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.8%
n=18
Feb
79%
+7.7%
n=19
Mar
37%
−3.5%
n=19
Apr
47%
−0.1%
n=19
May
63%
+1.9%
n=19
Jun
32%
−1.3%
n=19
Jul
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Aug
32%
+3.7%
n=19
Sep
39%
+1.3%
n=18
Oct
44%
−0.1%
n=18
Nov
56%
−0.4%
n=18
Dec
44%
+4.8%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Manson Dean | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $130.39 | $782K | −54.3% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,058 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Manson Dean | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $130.39 | $522K | −44.2% of holding | −17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,058 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 45,073 @ $121.00 | $5.5M | −4.9% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 865,633 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 7,513 @ $121.00 | $909K | −0.8% of holding | −18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 878,537 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Manson Dean | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $119.50 | $1.2M | −66.4% of holding | −20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,058 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 71,005 @ $107.52 | $7.6M | −7.9% of holding | +19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 823,293 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Manson Dean | officer | Sale | 11,400 @ $114.60 | $1.3M | −69.5% of holding | +17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,998 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Manson Dean | officer | Sale | 7,631 @ $114.51 | $874K | −76.1% of holding | +17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,398 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Swieringa John | officer | Sale | 35,088 @ $113.39 | $4.0M | −12.2% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,535 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Swieringa John | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $114.04 | $1.7M | −5.6% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,535 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 29,608 @ $104.10 | $3.1M | −4.8% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 583,029 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 29,607 @ $104.10 | $3.1M | −5.5% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 508,030 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 28,500 @ $104.09 | $3.0M | −6.2% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 434,137 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 26,621 @ $104.61 | $2.8M | −6.1% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 407,516 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 23,172 @ $104.67 | $2.4M | −4.6% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 484,858 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 23,040 @ $104.66 | $2.4M | −4.0% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 559,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 20,129 @ $104.10 | $2.1M | −3.0% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 642,508 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 14,940 @ $104.65 | $1.6M | −2.3% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 627,568 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 11,880 @ $108.18 | $1.3M | −3.0% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 383,372 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 7,833 @ $108.01 | $846K | −1.7% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 466,892 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 7,831 @ $108.01 | $846K | −1.4% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 541,893 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 6,567 @ $108.92 | $715K | −1.7% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 376,805 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 6,169 @ $105.96 | $654K | −1.5% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 401,347 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 6,095 @ $106.77 | $651K | −1.5% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 395,252 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 5,595 @ $105.93 | $593K | −1.0% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 554,394 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 5,465 @ $105.95 | $579K | −1.1% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 479,393 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 5,123 @ $108.02 | $553K | −0.8% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 615,548 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 4,670 @ $106.84 | $499K | −0.8% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 549,724 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 4,668 @ $106.84 | $499K | −1.0% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 474,725 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 4,256 @ $108.76 | $463K | −0.8% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 537,637 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 4,255 @ $108.76 | $463K | −0.9% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 462,637 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 3,657 @ $106.72 | $390K | −0.6% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 620,671 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 3,240 @ $105.88 | $343K | −0.5% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 624,328 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 2,911 @ $108.78 | $317K | −0.5% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 612,637 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Ortolf Tom A | director | Sale | 1,754 @ $104.06 | $183K | −32.2% of holding | +17.6% | +2.8% | 3,698 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Swieringa John | officer | Sale | 22,000 @ $67.34 | $1.5M | −7.2% of holding | +50.9% | +63.9% | 283,509 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Brokaw George R | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $68.07 | $68K | +57.0% of holding | +44.6% | +71.0% | 2,754 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 170,824 @ $74.93 | $12.8M | −28.0% of holding | −1.2% | +50.3% | 439,899 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Sale | 63,094 @ $76.50 | $4.8M | −14.3% of holding | −1.2% | +50.3% | 376,805 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Gaske Paul | officer | Sale | 5,075 @ $75.91 | $385K | −97.1% of holding | −1.2% | +50.3% | 149 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Gaske Paul | officer | Sale | 2,964 @ $75.91 | $225K | −95.2% of holding | −1.2% | +50.3% | 149 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Gaske Paul | officer | Sale | 1,444 @ $75.63 | $109K | −90.6% of holding | −1.2% | +50.3% | 149 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Gaske Paul | officer | Sale | 750 @ $78.32 | $59K | −100.0% of holding | −1.2% | +50.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Swieringa John | officer | Sale | 63,840 @ $81.20 | $5.2M | −99.3% of holding | −12.5% | +29.6% | 432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Manson Dean | officer | Sale | 60,000 @ $81.24 | $4.9M | −96.3% of holding | −12.5% | +29.6% | 2,322 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Swieringa John | officer | Sale | 35,087 @ $81.20 | $2.8M | −98.8% of holding | −12.5% | +29.6% | 432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Swieringa John | officer | Sale | 27,276 @ $81.24 | $2.2M | −98.4% of holding | −12.5% | +29.6% | 432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Swieringa John | officer | Sale | 16,936 @ $81.18 | $1.4M | −97.5% of holding | −12.5% | +29.6% | 432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Swieringa John | officer | Sale | 11,696 @ $81.18 | $949K | −96.4% of holding | −12.5% | +29.6% | 432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Abernathy Kathleen Q | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $82.36 | $824K | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | +29.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Abernathy Kathleen Q | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $82.33 | $412K | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | +29.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Abernathy Kathleen Q | director | Sale | 1,754 @ $82.37 | $144K | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | +29.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | ORBAN PAUL W | officer | Sale | 744 @ $82.37 | $61K | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | +29.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Gaske Paul | officer | Sale | 45,000 @ $80.25 | $3.6M | −96.6% of holding | −10.2% | +29.6% | 1,593 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | ORBAN PAUL W | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $61.26 | $1.2M | −97.7% of holding | +20.0% | +83.1% | 470 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | ORBAN PAUL W | officer | Sale | 16,518 @ $61.26 | $1.0M | −97.2% of holding | +20.0% | +83.1% | 470 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | ORBAN PAUL W | officer | Sale | 13,544 @ $61.24 | $829K | −96.6% of holding | +20.0% | +83.1% | 470 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | ORBAN PAUL W | officer | Sale | 26,702 @ $55.65 | $1.5M | −98.3% of holding | +22.4% | +89.9% | 470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | ORBAN PAUL W | officer | Sale | 2,358 @ $55.65 | $131K | −83.4% of holding | +22.4% | +89.9% | 470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | ORBAN PAUL W | officer | Sale | 2,089 @ $54.20 | $113K | −42.5% of holding | +41.5% | +105.6% | 2,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
152 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | ERGEN CHARLES W | director | Gift | 4,300,000 | 71,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | ERGEN CHARLES W | director | Gift | 4,300,000 | 4,300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Manson Dean | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 11,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Manson Dean | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 9,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Manson Dean | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Manson Dean | officer | Option exercise | 6,000 | 33,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Option exercise | 122,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Option exercise | 122,500 | 910,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Option exercise | 20,417 | 40,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Option exercise | 20,417 | 886,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Manson Dean | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 15,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Manson Dean | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wade William David | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wade William David | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | ERGEN CHARLES W | director | Gift | 1,902,790 | 23,097,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | ERGEN CHARLES W | director | Gift | 1,902,790 | 4,371,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | ERGEN CHARLES W | director | Gift | 3,306,885 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Telluray Holdings, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,925,750 | 60,517,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Ergen Two-Year May 2025 SATS GRAT | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 1,902,790 | 23,097,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | ERGEN CHARLES W | director | Other acquisition | 2,925,750 | 60,517,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | ERGEN CHARLES W | director | Gift | 381,135 | 2,469,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ortolf Tom A | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Abernathy Kathleen Q | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dodge R Stanton | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brokaw George R | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | ERGEN CANTEY | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | BYE STEPHEN J | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Wade William David | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hershman Lisa W. | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Option exercise | 233,918 | 894,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Option exercise | 20,417 | 660,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Option exercise | 233,918 | 233,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Akhavan Hamid | director | Option exercise | 20,417 | 61,251 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Manson Dean | officer | Option exercise | 14,000 | 16,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Manson Dean | officer | Option exercise | 7,631 | 10,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Manson Dean | officer | Option exercise | 14,000 | 42,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Manson Dean | officer | Option exercise | 7,631 | 39,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Swieringa John | officer | Option exercise | 35,088 | 288,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Swieringa John | officer | Option exercise | 35,088 | 105,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Swieringa John | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,964 | 275,553 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-10 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2020-05-06 | 2020-03-31 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2020-01-29 | 2019-12-12 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2020-01-29 | 2019-12-12 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2019-06-27 | 2019-05-21 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2019-04-30 | 2019-03-01 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2019-04-30 | 2019-03-04 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2019-04-30 | 2019-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2019-04-30 | 2019-03-07 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2019-04-30 | 2019-03-07 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2019-04-30 | 2019-03-11 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2019-04-30 | 2019-03-12 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.