Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.95 · now $4.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SATL has typically landed between $3.22 and $8.15 — a range of −35.0% to +64.6% from the issuance price $4.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,354 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SATL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.84 (-2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.13–$5.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.22–$8.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,354 windows spanning 2021-03-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-15 | −63.5% | −63.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-08 | −60.1% | −60.1% | +2.5% |
| 2025-10-09 | −59.1% | −60.0% | +2.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-07 | +388.0% | +0.0% | +388.0% |
| 2024-11-06 | +312.6% | +0.0% | +312.6% |
| 2024-11-08 | +307.0% | +0.0% | +384.8% |
1,354 overlapping windows · 2021-03-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+21.4%
n=5
Feb
40%
−7.8%
n=5
Mar
80%
+23.4%
n=5
Apr
50%
+2.1%
n=6
May
33%
−1.9%
n=6
Jun
17%
−12.1%
n=6
Jul
17%
−8.2%
n=6
Aug
50%
+4.8%
n=6
Sep
67%
−3.7%
n=6
Oct
40%
−13.5%
n=5
Nov
60%
+26.7%
n=5
Dec
60%
+11.4%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Liberty 77 Capital L.P. | director | Sale | 10,000,000 @ $9.77 | $97.7M | −50.0% of holding | −55.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Kharsansky Alan | officer | Sale | 87,091 @ $8.35 | $727K | −64.6% of holding | −23.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,785 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Dunn Rick | officer | Purchase | 19,050 @ $5.17 | $98K | +9.1% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 228,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Tirman Matthew | officer | Sale | 9,499 @ $5.18 | $49K | −5.8% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 154,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Dunn Rick | officer | Purchase | 16,695 @ $5.91 | $99K | +8.7% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,978 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 500,000 @ $5.01 | $2.5M | −3.9% of holding | +37.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,356,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 5,575 @ $5.55 | $31K | −0.0% of holding | −30.5% | −24.0% | 12,856,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-29 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 388,827 @ $5.63 | $2.2M | −2.9% of holding | −38.4% | −39.9% | 12,862,075 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 129,971 @ $5.56 | $722K | −1.0% of holding | −42.8% | −42.2% | 13,250,902 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $1.88 | $19K | +0.1% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,390,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $1.87 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,380,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $1.87 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,385,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 1,761 @ $1.87 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,383,581 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 600 @ $1.87 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,387,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 500 @ $1.87 | $935 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,385,342 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 400 @ $1.88 | $750 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,390,473 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 300 @ $1.88 | $563 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,390,173 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 300 @ $1.88 | $563 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,389,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 300 @ $1.87 | $561 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,383,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 200 @ $1.88 | $375 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,389,473 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 200 @ $1.87 | $374 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,383,081 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 200 @ $1.87 | $374 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,388,593 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.88 | $188 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,390,073 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.88 | $188 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,389,373 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.88 | $188 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,389,673 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.88 | $188 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,389,273 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.88 | $188 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,389,173 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.88 | $188 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,389,073 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.88 | $188 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,388,973 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.88 | $188 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,388,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.87 | $187 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,388,442 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 100 @ $1.87 | $187 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,387,742 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 80 @ $1.88 | $150 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,388,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 51 @ $1.87 | $95 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,388,542 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 8 @ $1.87 | $15 | −0.0% of holding | +57.3% | +289.3% | 13,383,073 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 283,121 @ $4.08 | $1.2M | −17.6% of holding | −64.6% | +60.0% | 1,323,482 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 11,040 @ $4.00 | $44K | −0.7% of holding | −61.5% | +85.8% | 1,606,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 1,836 @ $4.03 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | −57.2% | +108.4% | 1,617,643 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-09 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 314,767 @ $4.09 | $1.3M | −16.3% of holding | −59.0% | +84.5% | 1,619,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 85,700 @ $4.03 | $345K | −4.2% of holding | −59.7% | +79.9% | 1,934,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 533,333 | — | −100.0% of holding | −55.4% | +81.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 533,333 | — | −100.0% of holding | −55.4% | +81.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 13,380,873 | — | −100.0% of holding | −55.4% | +81.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | LUTNICK HOWARD W | director | Sale | 13,380,873 | — | −100.0% of holding | −55.4% | +81.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-24 | Dunn Rick | officer | Sale | 22,692 @ $3.80 | $86K | −14.4% of holding | −41.8% | +74.9% | 134,451 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 130 @ $4.00 | $520 | −0.0% of holding | −43.5% | +66.7% | 2,019,946 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 17,380 @ $3.75 | $65K | −0.9% of holding | +8.7% | −22.3% | 2,000,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-15 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 209,413 @ $3.85 | $806K | −9.4% of holding | +4.3% | −21.1% | 2,017,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 435,956 @ $3.94 | $1.7M | −16.4% of holding | −12.9% | −26.1% | 2,226,793 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 60,416 @ $3.77 | $228K | −2.2% of holding | −8.9% | −21.9% | 2,662,749 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-10 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 80,951 @ $3.77 | $305K | −2.9% of holding | +10.6% | −18.0% | 2,723,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 1,149 @ $3.75 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +4.8% | −21.0% | 2,804,116 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 76,685 @ $3.76 | $288K | −2.7% of holding | −6.2% | −17.1% | 2,805,265 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-29 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 29,770 @ $3.75 | $112K | −1.0% of holding | −15.6% | −22.4% | 2,881,950 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 15,191 @ $3.75 | $57K | −0.5% of holding | −10.8% | −24.7% | 2,911,720 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Sale | 73,089 @ $3.75 | $274K | −2.4% of holding | −12.7% | −22.4% | 2,926,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Tirman Matthew | officer | Sale | 29,073 @ $3.45 | $100K | −22.7% of holding | −2.7% | −17.6% | 99,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | Dunn Rick | officer | Sale | 30,009 @ $3.50 | $105K | −18.5% of holding | −5.1% | −55.9% | 132,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Sale | 58,311 @ $4.13 | $241K | −30.1% of holding | −12.7% | −78.3% | 135,538 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-20 | Tirman Matthew | officer | Sale | 3,518 @ $3.97 | $14K | −3.4% of holding | −12.7% | −78.3% | 101,241 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
94 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Option exercise | 12,528 | 187,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Kharsansky Alan | officer | Option exercise | 3,418 | 65,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Kharsansky Alan | officer | Option exercise | 5,271 | 79,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Option exercise | 9,491 | 1,393,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 9,237 | 36,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 23,349 | 163,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 10,594 | 127,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Option exercise | 20,064 | 1,383,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Option exercise | 26,484 | 317,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Kharsansky Alan | officer | Option exercise | 4,875 | 52,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Kharsansky Alan | officer | Option exercise | 9,467 | 62,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Kharsansky Alan | officer | Option exercise | 14,565 | 174,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Kharsansky Alan | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 52,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 6,610 | 234,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 16,708 | 251,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 7,581 | 258,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Killalea Peter Thomas | director | Award / grant | 27,914 | 27,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Award / grant | 200,443 | 200,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kargieman Emiliano | director | Award / grant | 164,875 | 164,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Gutierrez Miguel | director | Award / grant | 20,787 | 20,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kennedy Kelly J. | director | Award / grant | 20,787 | 20,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Kharsansky Alan | officer | Award / grant | 84,335 | 84,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Wang Theodore Glass | director | Award / grant | 32,665 | 32,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kennedy Kelly J. | director | Option exercise | 49,435 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Gutierrez Miguel | director | Option exercise | 49,435 | 49,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Gutierrez Miguel | director | Option exercise | 49,435 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kennedy Kelly J. | director | Option exercise | 49,435 | 180,685 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kharsansky Alan | officer | Option exercise | 87,091 | 134,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kharsansky Alan | officer | Option exercise | 87,091 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 5,958 | 170,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 15,062 | 185,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 6,832 | 192,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 4,692 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 9,237 | 46,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 23,350 | 186,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dunn Rick | officer | Option exercise | 10,593 | 137,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tirman Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 16,361 | 156,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tirman Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 7,437 | 163,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tirman Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 23,303 | 186,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tirman Matthew | officer | Option exercise | 10,593 | 137,713 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.