Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.13 · now $23.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SARO has typically landed between $19.49 and $26.70 — a range of −15.7% to +15.4% from the issuance price $23.13.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
469 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-10-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SARO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.13 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.86 (-1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.32–$24.39
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.49–$26.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 469 windows spanning 2024-10-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-04 | −21.5% | −21.5% | +1.1% |
| 2026-08-05 | −20.5% | −22.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-26 | −20.2% | −20.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-08 | +25.3% | +0.0% | +25.5% |
| 2026-06-03 | +24.1% | −0.6% | +24.1% |
| 2025-04-11 | +21.8% | −1.1% | +21.8% |
469 overlapping windows · 2024-10-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+8.1%
n=2
Feb
50%
+2.4%
n=2
Mar
0%
−10.9%
n=2
Apr
50%
−1.2%
n=2
May
100%
+11.9%
n=2
Jun
100%
+6.2%
n=2
Jul
0%
−5.9%
n=2
Aug
0%
−11.8%
n=2
Sep
50%
−1.3%
n=2
Oct
100%
+5.9%
n=1
Nov
0%
−5.1%
n=2
Dec
50%
−1.9%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 41 @ $30.00 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 295,532 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 20,413 @ $30.56 | $624K | −6.5% of holding | −15.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 295,573 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $31.42 | $1.3M | −11.2% of holding | −17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 315,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.89 | $1.2M | −10.1% of holding | −21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 355,986 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.24 | $1.2M | −9.2% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 395,986 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 10,969 @ $30.04 | $330K | −2.5% of holding | −19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 435,986 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.12 | $1.2M | −8.2% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 446,955 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.44 | $1.2M | −7.6% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 486,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.24 | $1.2M | −7.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 526,955 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.23 | $1.2M | −6.6% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 566,955 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 10,638 @ $27.36 | $291K | −42.6% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Ernzen Kimberly | officer | Sale | 2,516 @ $27.36 | $69K | −27.5% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,632 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Satterfield Daniel | officer | Sale | 2,306 @ $27.36 | $63K | −27.0% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,232 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Prebble Lewis | officer | Sale | 1,141 @ $27.36 | $31K | −27.5% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,006 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Brancato Anthony | officer | Sale | 1,107 @ $27.36 | $30K | −27.0% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,991 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Drobny Marc | officer | Sale | 1,094 @ $27.36 | $30K | −7.1% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Chambliss Malisa | officer | Sale | 764 @ $27.36 | $21K | −27.0% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Trapp Alex | officer | Sale | 475 @ $27.36 | $13K | −27.1% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Krekeler Gregory Clemens | officer | Sale | 390 @ $27.36 | $11K | −34.5% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | McElhinney Paul | director | Purchase | 37,243 @ $26.41 | $984K | +15.2% of holding | +0.7% | −24.9% | 281,531 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.09 | $1.2M | −6.2% of holding | −8.8% | −32.4% | 606,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.33 | $1.2M | −5.8% of holding | −11.0% | −32.7% | 646,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Carlyle Group Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 19,840,268 @ $31.46 | $624.2M | −19.0% of holding | −12.4% | −33.8% | 84,587,035 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.12 | $1.2M | −5.5% of holding | −4.8% | −19.9% | 686,955 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.12 | $1.2M | −5.2% of holding | −1.4% | −12.3% | 726,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.86 | $1.2M | −5.0% of holding | −2.8% | −10.7% | 766,955 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.47 | $1.2M | −4.7% of holding | −1.1% | −12.3% | 806,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Carlyle Group Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 48,246,588 @ $31.00 | $1.5B | −31.6% of holding | −0.3% | −14.2% | 104,427,303 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,253,412 @ $30.54 | $282.6M | −26.8% of holding | −0.3% | −14.2% | 25,210,221 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,637,465 @ $30.54 | $50.0M | −6.5% of holding | −0.3% | −14.2% | 23,572,756 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.76 | $1.2M | −4.5% of holding | +0.3% | −19.3% | 846,955 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.24 | $1.2M | −4.3% of holding | +0.5% | −18.1% | 886,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.46 | $1.2M | −4.1% of holding | −0.8% | −16.9% | 926,955 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $30.18 | $1.2M | −4.0% of holding | −1.3% | −16.3% | 966,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Drobny Marc | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $30.12 | $452K | −57.0% of holding | −1.3% | −16.3% | 11,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Trapp Alex | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $29.21 | $292K | −100.0% of holding | −10.7% | −12.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Trapp Alex | officer | Sale | 4,035 @ $28.00 | $113K | −28.7% of holding | +3.2% | −0.6% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Trapp Alex | officer | Sale | 2,873 @ $28.00 | $80K | −17.0% of holding | −1.2% | −4.5% | 14,035 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Trapp Alex | officer | Sale | 73,718 @ $28.06 | $2.1M | −81.3% of holding | −3.0% | −7.2% | 16,908 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Drobny Marc | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $26.80 | $536K | −43.2% of holding | −3.8% | −4.1% | 26,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | Carlyle Group Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,671,271 @ $27.30 | $100.2M | −2.3% of holding | +4.0% | −27.5% | 152,673,891 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 828,729 @ $27.30 | $22.6M | −2.3% of holding | +4.0% | −27.5% | 34,463,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Carlyle Group Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,475,138 @ $27.30 | $668.2M | −13.5% of holding | +2.0% | −26.6% | 156,345,162 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,524,862 @ $27.30 | $150.8M | −13.5% of holding | +2.0% | −26.6% | 35,292,362 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | Carlyle Group Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,370,166 @ $27.16 | $797.7M | −14.0% of holding | −1.6% | −22.0% | 180,820,300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,629,834 @ $27.16 | $180.1M | −14.0% of holding | −1.6% | −22.0% | 40,817,224 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Newman Andrea Fischer | director | Award / grant | 6,608 | 6,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | McElhinney Paul | director | Award / grant | 6,608 | 6,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Masiello Wendy Motlong | director | Award / grant | 6,608 | 6,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Weingartner Stefan | director | Award / grant | 6,608 | 6,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | KERR DEREK J | director | Award / grant | 6,608 | 6,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | CLARE PETER J | director | Award / grant | 6,608 | 6,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Newman Andrea Fischer | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | KERR DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Weingartner Stefan | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | McElhinney Paul | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Masiello Wendy Motlong | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | CLARE PETER J | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | CLARE PETER J | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 13,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Masiello Wendy Motlong | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 35,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Newman Andrea Fischer | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 73,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Weingartner Stefan | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 26,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | McElhinney Paul | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 287,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | CLARE PETER J | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 13,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Weingartner Stefan | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 26,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | KERR DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 7,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Masiello Wendy Motlong | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 35,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | McElhinney Paul | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 287,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Newman Andrea Fischer | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 73,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | KERR DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,011 | 7,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | McElhinney Paul | director | Award / grant | 548,245 | 548,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | McElhinney Paul | director | Award / grant | 182,748 | 182,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Ernzen Kimberly | officer | Option exercise | 9,148 | 18,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Satterfield Daniel | officer | Option exercise | 8,538 | 17,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Drobny Marc | officer | Option exercise | 4,049 | 8,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Prebble Lewis | officer | Award / grant | 12,803 | 12,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Prebble Lewis | officer | Award / grant | 27,247 | 27,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kaplan Michael L. | officer | Award / grant | 10,899 | 10,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kaplan Michael L. | officer | Award / grant | 23,194 | 23,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Option exercise | 24,980 | 49,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Award / grant | 74,890 | 74,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Ford Russell Wayne | director | Award / grant | 239,063 | 239,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Satterfield Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 26,616 | 26,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Satterfield Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 56,641 | 56,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Drobny Marc | officer | Award / grant | 12,253 | 12,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Drobny Marc | officer | Award / grant | 26,075 | 26,075 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.