SAM · TickerCove

SAMThe Boston Beer Company, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Alcoholicas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $170.25 · now $170.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SAM has typically landed between $143.01 and $196.85 — a range of −16.0% to +15.6% from the issuance price $170.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($170.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$170.25 · 9% of range

$161.08 low$260.05 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.2%

typical move · IQR 11.9%

−16.0%worst (p90)+15.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SAM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $170.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $170.25 (+0.0%)
typical $168.14 (-1.2%)
middle 50% $158.04–$178.25
90% range $143.01–$196.85

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2007-10-26	−41.0%	−41.7%	+0.0%
2007-10-25	−40.5%	−40.8%	+1.5%
2007-10-23	−39.9%	−39.9%	+1.8%
3 best
2020-06-24	+56.2%	+0.0%	+56.2%
2020-06-25	+52.7%	+0.0%	+55.3%
2020-07-06	+49.1%	+0.0%	+49.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

30%

−3.5%

n=20

Feb

55%

+0.0%

n=20

Mar

55%

+3.4%

n=20

Apr

55%

+2.5%

n=20

May

50%

+0.5%

n=20

Jun

55%

+1.3%

n=20

Jul

70%

+5.1%

n=20

Aug

40%

+1.6%

n=20

Sep

50%

−1.3%

n=20

Oct

65%

+3.7%

n=20

Nov

60%

−0.1%

n=20

Dec

50%

+2.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-04	Spillane Michael	director	Sale	1,968 @ $206.15	$406K	−15.3% of holding	−6.6%	−9.9%	10,877	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-04	Spillane Michael	director	Sale	1,152 @ $205.15	$236K	−8.2% of holding	−6.6%	−9.9%	12,845	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-08	Fritsch Annette N	officer	Sale	464 @ $219.04	$102K	−4.5% of holding	+0.5%	+3.9%	9,851	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-08	Fritsch Annette N	officer	Sale	136 @ $219.94	$30K	−1.4% of holding	+0.5%	+3.9%	9,715	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-13	VALETTE JEAN MICHEL	director	Sale	2,600 @ $228.18	$593K	−18.0% of holding	+11.2%	−24.3%	11,805	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13	VALETTE JEAN MICHEL	director	Sale	900 @ $229.23	$206K	−7.6% of holding	+11.2%	−24.3%	10,905	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-02	O'Boyle Carolyn L.	officer	Sale	62 @ $301.76	$19K	−0.9% of holding	−22.1%	−40.9%	6,655	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-27	Swanson Cynthia	director	Award / grant	691	691	Form 4
2026-05-27	Fisher Cynthia A	director	Award / grant	358	4,399	Form 4
2026-05-27	Fisher Cynthia A	director	Award / grant	691	691	Form 4
2026-05-27	Nemeth Julio N	director	Award / grant	358	1,076	Form 4
2026-05-27	Nemeth Julio N	director	Award / grant	691	691	Form 4
2026-05-27	Stone Christopher Isaac	director	Award / grant	358	1,411	Form 4
2026-05-27	Stone Christopher Isaac	director	Award / grant	691	691	Form 4
2026-05-27	Joyce Meghan V.	director	Award / grant	358	1,076	Form 4
2026-05-27	Joyce Meghan V.	director	Award / grant	691	691	Form 4
2026-05-27	JORDAN JOSEPH HUGH	director	Award / grant	358	1,411	Form 4
2026-05-27	JORDAN JOSEPH HUGH	director	Award / grant	691	691	Form 4
2026-05-27	Swanson Cynthia	director	Award / grant	358	1,294	Form 4
2026-04-02	Fisher Cynthia A	director	Option exercise	1,560	4,041	Form 4
2026-04-02	Fisher Cynthia A	director	Option exercise	1,560	0	Form 4
2026-03-20	Murphy Matthew Donal	officer	Award / grant	129	7,235	Form 4
2026-03-01	Hodges Philip A.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,587	45,301	Form 4
2026-03-01	Reynoso Diego	director	Withheld for tax	622	20,642	Form 4
2026-03-01	Lysyj Lesya	officer	Withheld for tax	383	16,505	Form 4
2026-03-01	Crowley Michael R.	officer	Withheld for tax	341	10,606	Form 4
2026-03-01	HEATH TARA L.	officer	Withheld for tax	297	11,793	Form 4
2026-03-01	Fritsch Annette N	officer	Withheld for tax	270	9,445	Form 4
2026-03-01	Murphy Matthew Donal	officer	Withheld for tax	193	5,222	Form 4
2026-03-01	Savastano Philip E.	officer	Withheld for tax	134	2,003	Form 4
2026-03-01	Boynton Laura J.	officer	Withheld for tax	88	1,198	Form 4
2026-03-01	Reynoso Diego	director	Award / grant	2,429	7,287	Form 4
2026-03-01	Savastano Philip E.	officer	Award / grant	1,544	3,547	Form 4
2026-03-01	Murphy Matthew Donal	officer	Award / grant	257	514	Form 4
2026-03-01	Fritsch Annette N	officer	Award / grant	309	617	Form 4
2026-03-01	Murphy Matthew Donal	officer	Award / grant	1,764	6,986	Form 4
2026-03-01	HEATH TARA L.	officer	Award / grant	2,206	13,999	Form 4
2026-03-01	HEATH TARA L.	officer	Award / grant	360	720	Form 4
2026-03-01	Lysyj Lesya	officer	Award / grant	566	1,131	Form 4
2026-03-01	Boynton Laura J.	officer	Award / grant	1,324	2,522	Form 4
2026-03-01	Crowley Michael R.	officer	Award / grant	2,206	12,812	Form 4
2026-03-01	Murphy Matthew Donal	officer	Award / grant	986	2,958	Form 4
2026-03-01	Reynoso Diego	director	Award / grant	5,734	26,376	Form 4
2025-11-04	Spillane Michael	director	Option exercise	3,120	0	Form 4
2025-10-28	Hodges Philip A.	officer	Award / grant	88,268	88,268	Form 4
2025-10-28	Hodges Philip A.	officer	Award / grant	13,186	46,888	Form 4
2025-08-11	Reynoso Diego	director	Award / grant	5,518	21,264	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i