Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.36 · now $20.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SAIL has typically landed between $15.37 and $26.90 — a range of −24.5% to +32.1% from the issuance price $20.36.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
378 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-02-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SAIL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.36 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.09 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.79–$22.38
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.37–$26.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 378 windows spanning 2025-02-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-03-11 | −33.6% | −33.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-06 | −30.6% | −30.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-03-13 | −28.0% | −32.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +68.6% | +0.0% | +68.6% |
| 2026-05-01 | +64.4% | −3.8% | +64.4% |
| 2026-04-29 | +62.7% | −1.3% | +62.7% |
378 overlapping windows · 2025-02-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−22.4%
n=1
Feb
0%
−10.1%
n=1
Mar
0%
−14.0%
n=2
Apr
0%
−11.1%
n=2
May
100%
+33.8%
n=2
Jun
50%
+3.7%
n=2
Jul
50%
+6.1%
n=2
Aug
50%
+7.5%
n=2
Sep
50%
+3.0%
n=2
Oct
0%
−1.8%
n=1
Nov
0%
−15.0%
n=1
Dec
100%
+9.8%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Sale | 1,214 @ $20.00 | $24K | −0.7% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | McClain Mark D. | director | Sale | 93,260 @ $15.42 | $1.4M | −1.1% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,093,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | CAROLAN BRIAN | officer | Sale | 46,002 @ $15.42 | $709K | −2.6% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,707,742 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Mills Matt | officer | Sale | 34,312 @ $15.42 | $529K | −1.4% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,373,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Gnanasambandam Chandrasekar | officer | Sale | 19,540 @ $15.42 | $301K | −2.0% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 934,508 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Schmitt Christopher | officer | Sale | 18,890 @ $15.42 | $291K | −1.4% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,312,721 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Payne Abby | officer | Sale | 16,999 @ $15.42 | $262K | −1.9% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 891,965 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Sale | 3,881 @ $15.42 | $60K | −2.1% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | McClain Mark D. | director | Sale | 76,865 @ $16.05 | $1.2M | −0.9% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,228,459 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | McClain Mark D. | director | Sale | 41,329 @ $16.73 | $691K | −0.5% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,187,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Mills Matt | officer | Sale | 28,280 @ $16.05 | $454K | −1.2% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,423,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | CAROLAN BRIAN | officer | Sale | 21,115 @ $16.05 | $339K | −1.2% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,765,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Mills Matt | officer | Sale | 15,205 @ $16.73 | $254K | −0.6% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,407,849 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Schmitt Christopher | officer | Sale | 15,569 @ $16.05 | $250K | −1.1% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,339,982 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Payne Abby | officer | Sale | 14,009 @ $16.05 | $225K | −1.5% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 916,497 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | CAROLAN BRIAN | officer | Sale | 11,353 @ $16.73 | $190K | −0.6% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,753,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Gnanasambandam Chandrasekar | officer | Sale | 9,676 @ $16.05 | $155K | −1.0% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 959,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Schmitt Christopher | officer | Sale | 8,371 @ $16.73 | $140K | −0.6% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,331,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Payne Abby | officer | Sale | 7,533 @ $16.73 | $126K | −0.8% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 908,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Gnanasambandam Chandrasekar | officer | Sale | 5,202 @ $16.73 | $87K | −0.5% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 954,048 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Sale | 1,921 @ $16.05 | $31K | −1.0% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 187,555 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Sale | 1,033 @ $16.73 | $17K | −0.6% of holding | +7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Sale | 7,487 @ $20.00 | $150K | −3.8% of holding | −19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 189,476 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | McClain Mark D. | director | Sale | 88,532 @ $11.42 | $1.0M | −1.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,309,666 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | CAROLAN BRIAN | officer | Sale | 45,226 @ $11.42 | $517K | −2.5% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,788,430 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Mills Matt | officer | Sale | 32,573 @ $11.42 | $372K | −1.3% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,452,932 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Gnanasambandam Chandrasekar | officer | Sale | 19,143 @ $11.42 | $219K | −1.9% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 969,865 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Schmitt Christopher | officer | Sale | 17,933 @ $11.42 | $205K | −1.3% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,356,431 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Payne Abby | officer | Sale | 16,138 @ $11.42 | $184K | −1.7% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 931,298 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | McClain Mark D. | director | Sale | 4,342 @ $12.21 | $53K | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,305,324 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Sale | 3,310 @ $11.42 | $38K | −1.7% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,125 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | CAROLAN BRIAN | officer | Sale | 2,218 @ $12.21 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,786,212 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Mills Matt | officer | Sale | 1,598 @ $12.21 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,451,334 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Gnanasambandam Chandrasekar | officer | Sale | 939 @ $12.21 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 968,926 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Schmitt Christopher | officer | Sale | 880 @ $12.21 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,355,551 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | Payne Abby | officer | Sale | 792 @ $12.21 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 930,506 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-09 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Sale | 162 @ $12.21 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 196,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | McClain Mark D. | director | Sale | 67,262 @ $12.80 | $861K | −0.8% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,398,198 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Mills Matt | officer | Sale | 24,746 @ $12.80 | $317K | −1.0% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,485,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | CAROLAN BRIAN | officer | Sale | 18,477 @ $12.80 | $237K | −1.0% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,833,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Schmitt Christopher | officer | Sale | 13,624 @ $12.80 | $174K | −1.0% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,374,364 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Payne Abby | officer | Sale | 12,259 @ $12.80 | $157K | −1.3% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 947,436 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Gnanasambandam Chandrasekar | officer | Sale | 8,467 @ $12.80 | $108K | −0.8% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 989,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Sale | 1,681 @ $12.80 | $22K | −0.8% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 200,435 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | McClain Mark D. | director | Sale | 67,328 @ $12.72 | $857K | −0.8% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,465,460 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Mills Matt | officer | Sale | 24,771 @ $12.72 | $315K | −1.0% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,510,251 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | CAROLAN BRIAN | officer | Sale | 18,495 @ $12.72 | $235K | −1.0% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,852,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Schmitt Christopher | officer | Sale | 13,637 @ $12.72 | $173K | −1.0% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,387,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Payne Abby | officer | Sale | 12,271 @ $12.72 | $156K | −1.3% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 959,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Gnanasambandam Chandrasekar | officer | Sale | 8,475 @ $12.72 | $108K | −0.8% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 997,475 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Sale | 1,683 @ $12.72 | $21K | −0.8% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 202,116 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | McClain Mark D. | director | Sale | 52,799 @ $19.57 | $1.0M | −0.7% of holding | −23.0% | −37.5% | 7,034,417 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-08 | CAROLAN BRIAN | officer | Sale | 30,638 @ $19.57 | $600K | −2.3% of holding | −23.0% | −37.5% | 1,277,795 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-08 | Mills Matt | officer | Sale | 13,771 @ $19.57 | $270K | −0.7% of holding | −23.0% | −37.5% | 1,850,983 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-08 | Schmitt Christopher | officer | Sale | 4,507 @ $19.57 | $88K | −0.4% of holding | −23.0% | −37.5% | 1,043,319 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-08 | Gnanasambandam Chandrasekar | officer | Sale | 4,245 @ $19.57 | $83K | −0.8% of holding | −23.0% | −37.5% | 517,351 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-08 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Sale | 3,782 @ $19.57 | $74K | −3.1% of holding | −23.0% | −37.5% | 119,109 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-08 | Payne Abby | officer | Sale | 3,582 @ $19.57 | $70K | −0.5% of holding | −23.0% | −37.5% | 678,807 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-07 | McClain Mark D. | director | Sale | 51,986 @ $19.90 | $1.0M | −0.7% of holding | −27.1% | −42.0% | 7,087,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Mills Matt | officer | Sale | 18,159 @ $19.90 | $361K | −1.0% of holding | −27.1% | −42.0% | 1,864,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
24 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Newell Tracey | director | Award / grant | 14,224 | 50,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Green Ronald J | director | Award / grant | 14,224 | 49,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | BOCK WILLIAM G | director | Award / grant | 14,224 | 126,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | HAGAN JAMES MALCOLM | director | Award / grant | 14,224 | 98,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mills Matt | officer | Award / grant | 684,039 | 2,535,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | CAROLAN BRIAN | officer | Award / grant | 592,833 | 1,870,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Award / grant | 84,690 | 203,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | McClain Mark D. | director | Award / grant | 1,498,371 | 8,532,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Schmitt Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 358,306 | 1,401,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Payne Abby | officer | Award / grant | 293,159 | 971,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Gnanasambandam Chandrasekar | officer | Award / grant | 488,599 | 1,005,950 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-27 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Award / grant | 41,696 | 131,203 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | BOCK WILLIAM G | director | Award / grant | 23,188 | 112,403 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Newell Tracey | director | Award / grant | 23,188 | 36,160 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | HAGAN JAMES MALCOLM | director | Award / grant | 23,188 | 84,106 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Weston Kristin | director | Award / grant | 23,188 | 126,897 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Green Ronald J | director | Award / grant | 23,188 | 43,661 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Gnanasambandam Chandrasekar | officer | Award / grant | 583,819 | 583,819 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | CAROLAN BRIAN | officer | Award / grant | 834,393 | 1,494,391 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | McClain Mark D. | director | Award / grant | 3,346,744 | 7,668,794 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Mills Matt | officer | Award / grant | 1,169,068 | 2,067,908 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Payne Abby | officer | Award / grant | 600,580 | 786,755 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | REZVAN MITRA | officer | Award / grant | 89,507 | 89,507 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Schmitt Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 652,175 | 1,161,158 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.