SAIASaia, Inc.Industrials · Truckingas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $343.53 · now $343.53 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SAIA has typically landed between $279.03 and $426.58 — a range of −18.8% to +24.2% from the issuance price $343.53.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($343.53) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SAIA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $343.53 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$279.03worst · -18.8%$426.58best · +24.2%
  • now $343.53 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $346.6 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $315.34–$377.87
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $279.03–$426.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−52.2%−52.2%+0.0%
2008-09-10−49.8%−49.8%+1.4%
2008-09-16−48.1%−51.3%+0.0%
3 best
2008-07-02+68.4%+0.0%+68.4%
2009-03-05+66.8%+0.0%+66.8%
2008-07-03+64.1%+0.0%+65.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+1.8%
n=20
Feb
80%
+5.9%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.5%
n=20
Apr
70%
+2.5%
n=20
May
60%
+2.9%
n=20
Jun
55%
+1.9%
n=20
Jul
70%
+6.0%
n=20
Aug
55%
−1.6%
n=20
Sep
35%
−2.2%
n=20
Oct
45%
+0.3%
n=20
Nov
60%
+3.4%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$487$2502026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $137K — Norwood Anthony R2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $195K — EISNOR DI-ANN2026-02-13: 7 insider sales, $5.6M — HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J III, RAMU RAYMOND R, SUGAR PATRICK D, Benton Kelly W …2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $417K — Batteh Matthew J2025-12-08: 1 insider sale, $100K — EISNOR DI-ANN2025-12-02: 1 insider sale, $314K — Benton Kelly W2025-11-26: 1 insider purchase, $117K — EPPS DONNA E2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $117K — EPPS DONNA E2025-11-18: 1 insider sale, $267K — RAMU RAYMOND R2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $117K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $384K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $414K2026-02: 9 open-market sales, $6.2M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $137K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Norwood Anthony R — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector EISNOR DI-ANN — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J III — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer RAMU RAYMOND R — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer SUGAR PATRICK D — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer RAMU RAYMOND R — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Benton Kelly W — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Batteh Matthew J — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Batteh Matthew J — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Batteh Matthew J — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 5 days after the tradedirector EISNOR DI-ANN — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Benton Kelly W — Sale on 2025-12-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector EPPS DONNA E — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector EPPS DONNA E — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer RAMU RAYMOND R — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20Norwood Anthony RofficerSale292 @ $468.77$137K−5.6% of holding−7.2%not yet — horizon still open4,894Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17EISNOR DI-ANNdirectorSale500 @ $389.88$195K−8.8% of holding−13.8%−18.0%5,212Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-13HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerSale4,775 @ $388.80$1.9M−17.4% of holding−12.9%−13.9%22,743Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13RAMU RAYMOND RofficerSale3,709 @ $387.73$1.4M−41.9% of holding−12.9%−13.9%5,148Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13SUGAR PATRICK DofficerSale2,706 @ $386.74$1.0M−22.9% of holding−12.9%−13.9%9,121Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13RAMU RAYMOND RofficerSale1,517 @ $388.48$589K−29.5% of holding−12.9%−13.9%3,631Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Benton Kelly WofficerSale800 @ $389.00$311K−20.2% of holding−12.9%−13.9%3,157Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Batteh Matthew JofficerSale766 @ $388.94$298K−14.3% of holding−12.9%−13.9%4,594Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Batteh Matthew JofficerSale150 @ $389.50$58K−3.3% of holding−12.9%−13.9%4,444Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-12Batteh Matthew JofficerSale1,110 @ $375.71$417K−17.2% of holding−11.8%−13.2%5,360Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-08EISNOR DI-ANNdirectorSale297 @ $336.73$100K−4.9% of holding+9.4%+33.1%5,712Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-02Benton Kelly WofficerSale1,000 @ $314.43$314K−24.4% of holding+6.7%+38.2%3,091Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-26EPPS DONNA EdirectorPurchase422 @ $277.60$117K+29.5% of holding+17.1%+60.3%1,852Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26EPPS DONNA EdirectorSale422 @ $277.43$117K−22.8% of holding+17.1%+60.3%1,430Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-18RAMU RAYMOND RofficerSale1,000 @ $266.57$267K−16.9% of holding+23.4%+62.1%4,902Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24RAMU RAYMOND RofficerSale1,280 @ $415.80$532K−17.8% of holding−6.6%−34.8%5,902Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24RAMU RAYMOND RofficerSale700 @ $415.80$291K−8.9% of holding−6.6%−34.8%7,182Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Batteh Matthew JofficerSale700 @ $500.09$350K−17.4% of holding−23.3%−44.3%3,326Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Benton Kelly WofficerSale460 @ $500.00$230K−9.7% of holding−23.3%−44.3%4,287Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-11EPPS DONNA EdirectorSale350 @ $496.24$174K−18.6% of holding−19.6%−43.6%1,534Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-10HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerSale3,380 @ $488.34$1.7M−14.2% of holding−17.8%−46.2%20,346Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerSale2,154 @ $488.34$1.1M−8.3% of holding−17.8%−46.2%23,726Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerSale2,000 @ $484.57$969K−10.2% of holding−17.8%−46.2%17,645Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10SUGAR PATRICK DofficerSale427 @ $493.76$211K−4.7% of holding−17.8%−46.2%8,629Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10SUGAR PATRICK DofficerSale372 @ $493.72$184K−4.1% of holding−17.8%−46.2%8,629Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

124 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-13HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerOther acquisition10,00010,000Form 4
2026-05-13HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerOther acquisition10,0000Form 4
2026-05-11HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerGift10,00010,000Form 4
2026-05-11HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerGift10,00012,743Form 4
2026-05-04WARD JEFFREY CdirectorAward / grant64257,976Form 4
2026-05-04EISNOR DI-ANNdirectorAward / grant6605,872Form 4
2026-05-04EPPS DONNA EdirectorAward / grant395943Form 4
2026-05-04Ward Susan FdirectorAward / grant3951,393Form 4
2026-05-04James Donald RdirectorAward / grant3952,083Form 4
2026-05-04GAINOR JOHN P JRdirectorAward / grant39518,806Form 4
2026-05-04ODELL RICHARD DdirectorAward / grant3953,303Form 4
2026-05-04HENRY KEVIN AdirectorAward / grant6233,725Form 4
2026-05-04Melville Randolph WdirectorAward / grant39523,298Form 4
2026-03-09SUGAR PATRICK DofficerWithheld for tax2048,917Form 4
2026-02-13HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerDiscretionary1057,240Form 4
2026-02-12Batteh Matthew JofficerOption exercise1,1106,470Form 4
2026-02-12SUGAR PATRICK DofficerAward / grant2,08511,827Form 4
2026-02-12HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerAward / grant6,59427,518Form 4
2026-02-12RAMU RAYMOND RofficerAward / grant2,2998,857Form 4
2026-02-12Patel TarakofficerAward / grant4251,830Form 4
2026-02-12Batteh Matthew JofficerAward / grant1,6585,360Form 4
2026-02-12Batteh Matthew JofficerOption exercise1,1100Form 4
2026-02-12Benton Kelly WofficerAward / grant4983,957Form 4
2026-02-12Norwood Anthony RofficerAward / grant1,0155,186Form 4
2026-02-09HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerWithheld for tax3,83620,924Form 4
2026-02-09RAMU RAYMOND RofficerWithheld for tax1,4896,752Form 4
2026-02-09SUGAR PATRICK DofficerWithheld for tax1,2339,742Form 4
2026-02-09HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerWithheld for tax69824,760Form 4
2026-02-09Norwood Anthony RofficerWithheld for tax2564,171Form 4
2026-02-09Batteh Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax2243,743Form 4
2026-02-09Benton Kelly WofficerWithheld for tax2043,459Form 4
2026-02-09RAMU RAYMOND RofficerWithheld for tax1946,558Form 4
2026-02-09SUGAR PATRICK DofficerWithheld for tax16710,975Form 4
2026-02-09Norwood Anthony RofficerWithheld for tax494,427Form 4
2026-02-09Benton Kelly WofficerWithheld for tax443,663Form 4
2026-02-09Batteh Matthew JofficerWithheld for tax413,702Form 4
2026-02-09RAMU RAYMOND RofficerAward / grant3,6028,241Form 4
2026-02-09SUGAR PATRICK DofficerAward / grant3,10111,142Form 4
2026-02-09Benton Kelly WofficerAward / grant6893,707Form 4
2026-02-09HOLZGREFE FREDERICK J IIIofficerAward / grant8,61125,458Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.