SAFT · TickerCove

SAFTSafety Insurance Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $103.55 · now $103.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SAFT has typically landed between $94.78 and $114.90 — a range of −8.5% to +11.0% from the issuance price $103.55.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($103.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$103.55 · 99% of range

$64.9 low$103.79 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 7.7%

−8.5%worst (p90)+11.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where SAFT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $103.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $103.55 (+0.0%)
typical $103.9 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $99.9–$107.9
90% range $94.78–$114.9

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-10	−27.4%	−27.4%	+2.1%
2020-02-11	−26.5%	−26.5%	+0.3%
2020-02-20	−26.2%	−26.2%	+0.9%
3 best
2026-07-22	+42.8%	+0.0%	+42.9%
2026-06-25	+42.1%	+0.0%	+42.4%
2026-07-23	+42.0%	+0.0%	+42.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.8%

n=20

Feb

35%

−1.2%

n=20

Mar

50%

+0.3%

n=20

Apr

40%

+0.3%

n=20

May

50%

+0.9%

n=20

Jun

45%

−0.4%

n=20

Jul

65%

+3.3%

n=20

Aug

70%

+2.2%

n=20

Sep

45%

−0.9%

n=20

Oct

75%

+3.1%

n=20

Nov

70%

+2.7%

n=20

Dec

60%

+0.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-27	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	774,177 @ $103.05	$79.8M	−62.1% of holding	−3.0%	not yet — horizon still open	473,387	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	466,175 @ $103.09	$48.1M	−27.2% of holding	−3.0%	not yet — horizon still open	1,247,564	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-24	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	38,835 @ $103.08	$4.0M	−2.2% of holding	−2.8%	not yet — horizon still open	1,713,739	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-17	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	5,159 @ $76.03	$392K	−0.3% of holding	+35.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,752,574	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-13	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	34,272 @ $76.04	$2.6M	−1.9% of holding	+33.3%	not yet — horizon still open	1,757,733	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-09	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,650 @ $76.51	$203K	−0.1% of holding	+33.4%	not yet — horizon still open	1,792,005	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-20	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	14,151 @ $71.12	$1.0M	−0.8% of holding	−2.2%	not yet — horizon still open	1,794,655	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-17	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	1,199 @ $73.06	$88K	−0.1% of holding	−0.9%	+31.1%	1,808,806	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	11,270 @ $76.49	$862K	−0.6% of holding	−0.8%	+24.0%	1,810,005	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	235 @ $77.82	$18K	−0.0% of holding	+4.2%	+24.2%	1,821,275	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	6,207 @ $77.89	$483K	−0.3% of holding	+2.4%	+24.4%	1,821,510	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	5,280 @ $78.91	$417K	−0.3% of holding	+2.4%	+24.4%	1,827,537	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,147 @ $78.29	$168K	−0.1% of holding	+1.2%	+24.4%	1,832,817	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	3,231 @ $77.14	$249K	−0.2% of holding	−0.6%	+25.3%	1,834,964	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23	SRB CORP	tenPercentOwner	Sale	4,089 @ $77.48	$317K	−0.2% of holding	−0.2%	+24.7%	1,838,195	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-18	Hiltpold Glenn	officer	Purchase	55 @ $71.73	$4K	+0.4% of holding	−4.9%	+2.1%	13,108	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-05	Langwell Dennis J.	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $72.39	$145K	+33.3% of holding	−7.7%	−2.9%	8,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-11	Langwell Dennis J.	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $71.49	$143K	+50.0% of holding	−0.5%	+2.3%	6,000	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

153 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-02	Murphy George	director	Withheld for tax	712	117,410	Form 4
2026-03-02	Varga Stephen Albert	officer	Withheld for tax	428	31,503	Form 4
2026-03-02	Whitford Christopher Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	289	23,158	Form 4
2026-03-02	Drago John Patrick	officer	Withheld for tax	283	32,165	Form 4
2026-03-02	Narciso Paul J	officer	Withheld for tax	243	40,349	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hiltpold Glenn	officer	Withheld for tax	185	14,963	Form 4
2026-03-02	McConnell Mary Frances	officer	Withheld for tax	183	9,471	Form 4
2026-03-02	Lam Brian Siu-Gae	officer	Withheld for tax	176	9,101	Form 4
2026-03-02	Murphy George	director	Withheld for tax	68	118,122	Form 4
2026-03-02	Varga Stephen Albert	officer	Withheld for tax	41	31,931	Form 4
2026-03-02	Whitford Christopher Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	27	23,447	Form 4
2026-03-02	Narciso Paul J	officer	Withheld for tax	23	40,592	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hiltpold Glenn	officer	Withheld for tax	18	15,148	Form 4
2026-03-02	Lam Brian Siu-Gae	officer	Withheld for tax	17	9,277	Form 4
2026-03-02	McConnell Mary Frances	officer	Withheld for tax	14	9,654	Form 4
2026-03-02	Drago John Patrick	officer	Withheld for tax	1	32,448	Form 4
2026-02-27	Murphy George	director	Withheld for tax	839	118,190	Form 4
2026-02-27	Varga Stephen Albert	officer	Withheld for tax	475	31,972	Form 4
2026-02-27	Drago John Patrick	officer	Withheld for tax	286	32,449	Form 4
2026-02-27	Whitford Christopher Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	243	23,474	Form 4
2026-02-27	McConnell Mary Frances	officer	Withheld for tax	191	9,668	Form 4
2026-02-27	Narciso Paul J	officer	Withheld for tax	178	40,615	Form 4
2026-02-27	Hiltpold Glenn	officer	Withheld for tax	146	15,166	Form 4
2026-02-27	Lam Brian Siu-Gae	officer	Withheld for tax	142	9,294	Form 4
2026-02-27	Whitford Christopher Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	117	23,717	Form 4
2026-02-27	Narciso Paul J	officer	Withheld for tax	89	40,793	Form 4
2026-02-27	Hiltpold Glenn	officer	Withheld for tax	72	15,312	Form 4
2026-02-27	Lam Brian Siu-Gae	officer	Withheld for tax	70	9,436	Form 4
2026-02-25	Lam Brian Siu-Gae	officer	Award / grant	1,982	9,552	Form 4
2026-02-25	Gray Deborah E	director	Award / grant	1,083	5,083	Form 4
2026-02-25	Murphy George	director	Award / grant	7,268	119,960	Form 4
2026-02-25	Murphy George	director	Other acquisition	6,051	106,383	Form 4
2026-02-25	Murphy George	director	Award / grant	6,309	112,692	Form 4
2026-02-25	Varga Stephen Albert	officer	Other acquisition	2,420	27,472	Form 4
2026-02-25	Varga Stephen Albert	officer	Award / grant	2,581	30,053	Form 4
2026-02-25	Varga Stephen Albert	officer	Award / grant	2,973	33,026	Form 4
2026-02-25	Brophy Charles Joseph III	director	Award / grant	1,083	12,083	Form 4
2026-02-25	Hiltpold Glenn	officer	Other acquisition	1,513	11,595	Form 4
2026-02-25	Hiltpold Glenn	officer	Award / grant	1,864	13,459	Form 4
2026-02-25	Hiltpold Glenn	officer	Award / grant	2,147	15,606	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i