SAFESafehold Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.82 · now $13.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SAFE has typically landed between $11.27 and $15.94 — a range of −18.4% to +15.3% from the issuance price $13.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SAFE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.27worst · -18.4%$15.94best · +15.3%
  • now $13.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.57 (-1.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.54–$14.6
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.27–$15.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-10−82.3%−82.3%+0.0%
2008-09-11−80.1%−81.3%+0.6%
2008-09-09−76.4%−76.4%+0.0%
3 best
2009-02-20+285.9%+0.0%+285.9%
2008-11-19+244.2%+0.0%+244.2%
2009-03-05+202.5%+0.0%+202.5%

5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−1.1%
n=20
Feb
70%
+5.7%
n=20
Mar
50%
+4.8%
n=20
Apr
70%
+5.4%
n=20
May
40%
−1.7%
n=20
Jun
40%
−6.9%
n=20
Jul
50%
−0.9%
n=20
Aug
45%
−3.5%
n=20
Sep
40%
−4.1%
n=20
Oct
60%
−0.1%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.4%
n=20
Dec
50%
+6.0%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$17$122026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $138K — JOSEPHS ROBIN2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $138K↑ buys↓ salesdirector JOSEPHS ROBIN — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorSale9,500 @ $14.56$138K−9.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open89,068Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

37 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorAward / grant33598,568Form 4
2026-07-15RIDINGS BARRY WdirectorAward / grant3061,725Form 4
2026-05-29Uhlick Christopher MichaelofficerAward / grant4,50012,483Form 4
2026-05-14RIDINGS BARRY WdirectorAward / grant8,77861,695Form 4
2026-05-14JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorAward / grant8,77898,233Form 4
2026-05-14NYDICK JAY SdirectorAward / grant8,77847,336Form 4
2026-05-14SELIG STEFAN MdirectorAward / grant13,655105,169Form 4
2026-04-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorAward / grant35989,455Form 4
2026-04-15RIDINGS BARRY WdirectorAward / grant3352,917Form 4
2026-03-31SUGARMAN JAYdirectorWithheld for tax23,6621,830,283Form 4
2026-03-31Asnas BrettofficerWithheld for tax8,118205,849Form 4
2026-02-27Asnas BrettofficerAward / grant66,171213,966Form 4
2026-02-27SUGARMAN JAYdirectorAward / grant90,1491,853,946Form 4
2026-02-27Asnas BrettofficerWithheld for tax27,295213,966Form 4
2026-02-27SUGARMAN JAYdirectorWithheld for tax40,8251,853,946Form 4
2026-01-15RIDINGS BARRY WdirectorAward / grant3352,884Form 4
2026-01-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorAward / grant36289,096Form 4
2025-12-01Trachtenberg Michael LaneofficerAward / grant93,07693,076Form 4
2025-10-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorAward / grant34688,734Form 4
2025-10-15RIDINGS BARRY WdirectorAward / grant3252,851Form 4
2025-07-15RIDINGS BARRY WdirectorAward / grant3352,819Form 4
2025-07-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorAward / grant35688,388Form 4
2025-07-07Uhlick Christopher MichaelofficerAward / grant7,9837,983Form 4
2025-05-15RIDINGS BARRY WdirectorAward / grant8,76152,786Form 4
2025-05-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorAward / grant8,76188,032Form 4
2025-05-15SELIG STEFAN MdirectorAward / grant13,62891,514Form 4
2025-05-15NYDICK JAY SdirectorAward / grant8,76138,558Form 4
2025-04-15RIDINGS BARRY WdirectorAward / grant3244,025Form 4
2025-04-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorAward / grant34839,704Form 4
2025-03-31Asnas BrettofficerWithheld for tax8,310175,090Form 4
2025-03-31SUGARMAN JAYdirectorWithheld for tax23,9261,804,622Form 4
2025-02-28Asnas BrettofficerAward / grant38,853183,400Form 4
2025-02-28Asnas BrettofficerWithheld for tax19,148183,400Form 4
2025-02-28SUGARMAN JAYdirectorAward / grant104,5021,828,548Form 4
2025-02-28SUGARMAN JAYdirectorWithheld for tax50,0101,828,548Form 4
2025-01-15RIDINGS BARRY WdirectorAward / grant2843,993Form 4
2025-01-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorAward / grant30939,356Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.