Issued 2026-09-25 at $3.29 · now $3.29 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, SABS has typically landed between $2.12 and $4.78 — a range of −35.5% to +45.4% from the issuance price $3.29.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,392 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-02-09 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($3.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where SABS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $3.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.29 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.11 (-5.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.66–$3.56
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.12–$4.78
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-10 | −67.7% | −67.7% | +1.3% |
| 2022-02-11 | −67.6% | −68.1% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-15 | −65.9% | −67.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-04-12 | +143.7% | +0.0% | +186.8% |
| 2023-04-10 | +130.7% | −7.5% | +165.2% |
| 2023-04-11 | +130.2% | −7.5% | +165.2% |
1,392 overlapping windows · 2021-02-09 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: SAFety and Efficacy of Human Anti-thymocyte ImmunoGlobUlin SAB-142 ARresting Progression of Type 1 Diabetes (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
92 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 473 | 41,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 473 | 41,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 473 | 41,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 988 | 42,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 988 | 42,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 988 | 43,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 988 | 43,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Bausch Christoph Lawrence | officer | Award / grant | 1,800,000 | 1,800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Reich Samuel J | director | Award / grant | 4,800,000 | 4,800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | To Lucy | officer | Award / grant | 2,400,000 | 2,400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Award / grant | 2,400,000 | 2,400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Sullivan Eddie Joe | director | Award / grant | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Jain Rita | director | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | ZACCARDELLI DAVID | director | Award / grant | 240,000 | 240,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Polvino William James | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | SKYLER JAY S | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Ellias Helen K. | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Giberson Scott | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Link David | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-16 | Lucera Erick | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 988 | 44,284 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 988 | 44,284 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Moin Andrew | director | Option exercise | 1,740,000 | 2,198,457 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Sessa Capital (Master), L.P. | director | Option exercise | 1,740,000 | 2,198,457 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Sessa Capital (Master), L.P. | director | Option exercise | 17,400 | 211,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Sessa Capital (Master), L.P. | director | Option exercise | 17,400 | 211,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Sessa Capital (Master), L.P. | director | Option exercise | 17,400 | 211,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Moin Andrew | director | Option exercise | 17,400 | 211,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Sessa Capital (Master), L.P. | director | Option exercise | 17,400 | 211,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Moin Andrew | director | Option exercise | 17,400 | 211,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Sessa Capital (Master), L.P. | director | Option exercise | 17,400 | 211,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Sessa Capital (Master), L.P. | director | Option exercise | 17,400 | 211,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 1,977 | 45,272 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Withheld for tax | 1,977 | 45,272 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Reich Samuel J | director | Award / grant | 4,800,000 | 4,800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Bausch Christoph Lawrence | officer | Award / grant | 600,000 | 600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Sullivan Eddie Joe | director | Award / grant | 3,000,000 | 3,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | To Lucy | officer | Award / grant | 1,200,000 | 1,200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Kropotova Alexandra | director | Award / grant | 2,400,000 | 2,400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-22 | Sessa Capital (Master), L.P. | director | Award / grant | 228,500 | 228,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.