SABRSabre CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Travel Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.32 · now $2.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, SABR has typically landed between $1.66 and $3.05 — a range of −28.5% to +31.3% from the issuance price $2.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,101 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-04-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where SABR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.66worst · -28.5%$3.05best · +31.3%
  • now $2.32 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.29 (-1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2–$2.59
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.66–$3.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,101 windows spanning 2014-04-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−84.7%−84.7%+0.0%
2020-02-21−82.9%−84.5%+0.0%
2020-02-19−82.4%−82.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-10-28+87.2%+0.0%+87.2%
2026-02-24+84.7%+0.0%+143.4%
2020-10-27+78.7%−3.4%+78.7%

3,101 overlapping windows · 2014-04-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
42%
−1.6%
n=12
Feb
50%
−1.5%
n=12
Mar
42%
−6.4%
n=12
Apr
58%
+3.7%
n=12
May
38%
−1.5%
n=13
Jun
54%
+1.2%
n=13
Jul
54%
+4.5%
n=13
Aug
46%
−1.8%
n=13
Sep
54%
−1.3%
n=13
Oct
50%
−1.6%
n=12
Nov
67%
+5.1%
n=12
Dec
58%
+1.3%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$2$12026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $12.3M — CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE INC2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $12.3M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE INC — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-27CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE INCtenPercentOwnerPurchase10,634,702 @ $1.16$12.3M+26.9% of holding+26.3%+73.7%50,157,523Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-25Paul ElainedirectorSale24,325 @ $4.24$103K−45.0% of holding−18.8%−69.0%29,729Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

108 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-15Ekert Kurt JosephdirectorWithheld for tax124,1332,480,594Form 4
2026-05-15Ekert Kurt JosephdirectorWithheld for tax104,9342,375,660Form 4
2026-05-15Ekert Kurt JosephdirectorWithheld for tax103,6522,272,008Form 4
2026-05-15Ekert Kurt JosephdirectorWithheld for tax93,2872,415,790Form 4
2026-05-15BOAS ROCHELLEofficerWithheld for tax42,134536,503Form 4
2026-05-15Randolfi Michael OofficerWithheld for tax37,6921,056,995Form 4
2026-05-15Randolfi Michael OofficerWithheld for tax37,4771,019,518Form 4
2026-05-15Randolfi Michael OofficerWithheld for tax36,8411,094,687Form 4
2026-05-15CATTO JENNIFERofficerWithheld for tax35,307731,122Form 4
2026-05-15Randolfi Michael OofficerWithheld for tax33,9231,071,802Form 4
2026-05-15Williams Shawn GofficerWithheld for tax31,033932,280Form 4
2026-05-15Williams Shawn GofficerWithheld for tax30,531979,335Form 4
2026-05-15Wiseman Garry RofficerWithheld for tax29,981706,347Form 4
2026-05-15Williams Shawn GofficerWithheld for tax29,981949,354Form 4
2026-05-15DIFONZO JOEofficerWithheld for tax28,314741,960Form 4
2026-05-15Wiseman Garry RofficerWithheld for tax28,269678,078Form 4
2026-05-15Wiseman Garry RofficerWithheld for tax25,442717,291Form 4
2026-05-15Williams Shawn GofficerWithheld for tax24,758963,313Form 4
2026-05-15Wiseman Garry RofficerWithheld for tax24,580736,328Form 4
2026-05-15DIFONZO JOEofficerWithheld for tax19,204770,274Form 4
2026-05-15DIFONZO JOEofficerWithheld for tax18,846723,114Form 4
2026-05-15DIFONZO JOEofficerWithheld for tax16,962749,256Form 4
2026-05-15FINKELSTEIN ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax13,746180,266Form 4
2026-05-15FINKELSTEIN ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax12,450167,816Form 4
2026-05-15Kindle JamiofficerWithheld for tax8,127311,345Form 4
2026-05-15Kindle JamiofficerWithheld for tax7,404303,941Form 4
2026-05-15Kindle JamiofficerWithheld for tax7,361296,580Form 4
2026-05-15Kindle JamiofficerWithheld for tax6,663309,314Form 4
2026-05-15FINKELSTEIN ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax6,261161,555Form 4
2026-05-15FINKELSTEIN ANDREWofficerWithheld for tax5,635171,007Form 4
2026-05-15FINKELSTEIN ANDREWofficerAward / grant242,424413,431Form 4
2026-05-15Wiseman Garry RofficerAward / grant484,8481,202,139Form 4
2026-05-15Wiseman Garry RofficerAward / grant64,655742,733Form 4
2026-05-15Williams Shawn GofficerAward / grant404,0401,353,394Form 4
2026-05-15BOAS ROCHELLEofficerAward / grant323,232859,735Form 4
2026-05-15Randolfi Michael OofficerAward / grant404,0401,475,842Form 4
2026-05-15Randolfi Michael OofficerAward / grant86,2071,105,725Form 4
2026-05-15FINKELSTEIN ANDREWofficerAward / grant15,087176,642Form 4
2026-05-15Ekert Kurt JosephdirectorAward / grant237,0692,509,077Form 4
2026-05-15Ekert Kurt JosephdirectorAward / grant1,818,1824,233,972Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.