Issued 2026-09-25 at $22.38 · now $22.38 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, S has typically landed between $17.04 and $27.49 — a range of −23.9% to +22.8% from the issuance price $22.38.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,283 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($22.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where S has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $22.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $22.38 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.11 (-1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.09–$24.14
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.04–$27.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,283 windows spanning 2021-06-30 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-19 | −43.1% | −48.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-11 | −42.3% | −42.3% | +12.6% |
| 2022-04-14 | −39.6% | −47.1% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-10 | +62.0% | +0.0% | +62.0% |
| 2023-11-13 | +61.4% | +0.0% | +61.4% |
| 2023-11-09 | +60.3% | +0.0% | +60.3% |
1,283 overlapping windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−1.8%
n=5
Feb
40%
−3.2%
n=5
Mar
20%
−7.1%
n=5
Apr
40%
−2.7%
n=5
May
40%
−0.7%
n=5
Jun
60%
+0.0%
n=5
Jul
100%
+8.2%
n=6
Aug
83%
+11.1%
n=6
Sep
50%
−4.2%
n=6
Oct
60%
+3.0%
n=5
Nov
40%
−6.8%
n=5
Dec
40%
+2.0%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 114,890 @ $19.89 | $2.3M | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,744,878 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 13,311 @ $19.95 | $266K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 405,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 38,759 @ $19.79 | $767K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,801,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 21,664 @ $19.44 | $421K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 942,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 14,205 @ $19.79 | $281K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 418,423 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Sale | 8,312 @ $19.79 | $164K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 948,046 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 7,235 @ $19.44 | $141K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 432,628 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 53,811 @ $20.08 | $1.1M | −2.8% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,840,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Sale | 26,374 @ $20.08 | $530K | −2.7% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 956,358 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 9,778 @ $20.09 | $196K | −1.0% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 977,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Pinczuk Ana G. | director | Sale | 6,230 @ $20.09 | $125K | −0.8% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 737,716 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 5,467 @ $20.08 | $110K | −1.2% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 439,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 57,941 @ $18.75 | $1.1M | −3.0% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,894,397 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 12,987 @ $18.25 | $237K | −1.3% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 964,281 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-06 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Sale | 33,823 @ $17.89 | $605K | −3.3% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 977,268 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-06 | Pinczuk Ana G. | director | Sale | 16,042 @ $17.89 | $287K | −2.1% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 743,946 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-06 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 15,460 @ $17.89 | $277K | −1.5% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 987,208 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 57,941 @ $17.71 | $1.0M | −3.0% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,894,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 57,941 @ $15.21 | $881K | −3.0% of holding | +29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,894,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 57,296 @ $14.60 | $836K | −2.9% of holding | +32.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,894,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 39,118 @ $15.73 | $615K | −2.0% of holding | +17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,951,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 11,905 @ $15.70 | $187K | −2.6% of holding | +17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 445,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Sale | 8,401 @ $15.70 | $132K | −0.8% of holding | +17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 982,732 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 21,960 @ $15.65 | $344K | −1.1% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,990,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Sale | 4,550 @ $15.65 | $71K | −0.5% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 991,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 2,459 @ $15.65 | $38K | −0.5% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,235 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 231,664 @ $15.32 | $3.5M | −10.3% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,012,771 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 100 @ $15.00 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,012,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Pinczuk Ana G. | director | Sale | 16,042 @ $13.41 | $215K | −2.7% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 587,608 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 15,460 @ $13.41 | $207K | −2.4% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 628,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 72,523 @ $13.37 | $970K | −6.3% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,076,575 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | Pinczuk Ana G. | director | Sale | 32,396 @ $13.37 | $433K | −5.1% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 603,650 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 32,221 @ $13.37 | $431K | −4.8% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 643,650 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Sale | 5,578 @ $13.37 | $75K | −1.0% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 574,395 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 1,496 @ $13.37 | $20K | −0.4% of holding | −2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 403,523 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 38,864 @ $14.47 | $562K | −3.7% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,007,277 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 36,932 @ $13.81 | $510K | −3.4% of holding | −4.0% | +55.0% | 1,046,141 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 10,163 @ $13.81 | $140K | −2.5% of holding | −4.0% | +55.0% | 400,871 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Sale | 5,178 @ $13.81 | $72K | −0.9% of holding | −4.0% | +55.0% | 557,184 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 39,472 @ $13.48 | $532K | −3.5% of holding | +10.9% | +50.8% | 1,083,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 23,063 @ $13.15 | $303K | −2.0% of holding | +8.9% | +43.6% | 1,122,545 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Sale | 4,237 @ $13.15 | $56K | −0.7% of holding | +8.9% | +43.6% | 562,362 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 2,975 @ $13.15 | $39K | −0.7% of holding | +8.9% | +43.6% | 411,034 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 51,595 @ $15.12 | $780K | −4.3% of holding | −12.8% | +15.0% | 1,145,608 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Pinczuk Ana G. | director | Sale | 11,900 @ $14.82 | $176K | −2.1% of holding | −12.8% | +15.0% | 560,589 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Larson Barbara A | director | Sale | 11,173 @ $14.82 | $166K | −2.0% of holding | −12.8% | +15.0% | 539,372 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 6,346 @ $15.04 | $95K | −0.6% of holding | −11.2% | +14.0% | 1,145,608 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | PEEK MARK S | director | Purchase | 40,000 @ $14.89 | $596K | +50.0% of holding | −8.3% | −9.4% | 120,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 125,429 @ $15.09 | $1.9M | −10.3% of holding | −3.3% | −8.8% | 1,093,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 38,684 @ $14.58 | $564K | −3.1% of holding | +1.9% | −7.3% | 1,213,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 8,509 @ $14.58 | $124K | −2.9% of holding | +1.9% | −7.3% | 285,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Sale | 8,311 @ $14.58 | $121K | −1.4% of holding | +1.9% | −7.3% | 565,225 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 57,941 @ $16.41 | $951K | −4.3% of holding | −11.0% | −11.1% | 1,283,939 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 32,159 @ $16.56 | $533K | −2.5% of holding | −11.0% | −11.1% | 1,251,780 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Sale | 5,871 @ $16.56 | $97K | −1.0% of holding | −11.0% | −11.1% | 573,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Sale | 3,476 @ $16.56 | $58K | −1.2% of holding | −11.0% | −11.1% | 294,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 57,941 @ $18.02 | $1.0M | −4.3% of holding | −6.3% | −25.9% | 1,283,939 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Larson Barbara A | director | Sale | 54,583 @ $18.13 | $990K | −9.0% of holding | −6.3% | −25.9% | 549,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Sale | 162,794 @ $18.38 | $3.0M | −11.1% of holding | −6.1% | −22.6% | 1,298,982 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Smith Ric | officer | Sale | 23,520 @ $18.07 | $425K | −2.5% of holding | −3.7% | −25.8% | 928,021 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
179 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 57,941 | 3,421,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 57,941 | 1,859,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 57,941 | 3,479,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 57,941 | 1,952,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 57,941 | 1,952,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 57,941 | 3,537,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Wardi Teddie Benjamin | director | Award / grant | 3,638 | 3,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Wardi Teddie Benjamin | director | Award / grant | 14,238 | 17,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Barrenechea Mark J | director | Award / grant | 3,543 | 30,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Barrenechea Mark J | director | Award / grant | 14,238 | 44,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hughes Aaron | director | Award / grant | 4,176 | 67,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hughes Aaron | director | Award / grant | 14,238 | 81,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | PEEK MARK S | director | Award / grant | 4,746 | 48,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | PEEK MARK S | director | Award / grant | 14,238 | 62,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Scheinman Daniel | director | Award / grant | 14,238 | 76,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | BEGLEY CHARLENE T | director | Award / grant | 14,238 | 93,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | BEGLEY CHARLENE T | director | Award / grant | 4,429 | 79,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 57,941 | 1,952,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 57,941 | 3,594,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 231,664 | 2,244,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 231,664 | 3,652,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 100 | 2,012,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 100 | 3,884,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Pinczuk Ana G. | director | Award / grant | 187,239 | 774,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Parekh Sonalee Elizabeth | director | Award / grant | 1,011,091 | 1,011,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Award / grant | 936,196 | 2,012,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Award / grant | 56,171 | 459,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Award / grant | 374,478 | 1,002,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Award / grant | 421,288 | 995,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Award / grant | 92,662 | 675,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Pinczuk Ana G. | director | Award / grant | 75,457 | 636,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | TOMASELLO ROBIN | officer | Award / grant | 4,148 | 405,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Award / grant | 39,405 | 1,046,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Award / grant | 102,416 | 1,149,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Award / grant | 9,074 | 566,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Conder Keenan Michael | officer | Award / grant | 13,715 | 579,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 51,595 | 1,197,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 51,595 | 3,884,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 6,346 | 1,151,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Weingarten Tomer | director | Conversion | 6,346 | 3,936,276 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas R. Carper | Senate | sale | 2024-02-02 | 2024-01-02 | $1–15K |
| Gary Palmer | House | purchase | 2018-09-29 | 2017-04-04 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.