Issued 2026-08-13 at $22.30 · now $23.84 (2026-08-13, +6.9% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, S has typically landed between $16.91 and $27.31 — a range of −24.1% to +22.5% from the issuance price $22.30.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,253 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-06-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($22.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where S has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $22.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.84 (+6.9%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.97 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.96–$23.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.91–$27.31
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-19 | −43.1% | −48.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-11 | −42.3% | −42.3% | +12.6% |
| 2022-04-14 | −39.6% | −47.1% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-10 | +62.0% | +0.0% | +62.0% |
| 2023-11-13 | +61.4% | +0.0% | +61.4% |
| 2023-11-09 | +60.3% | +0.0% | +60.3% |
1,253 overlapping windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
No Form 4 filings for this company are in our record yet.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas R. Carper | Senate | sale | 2024-02-02 | 2024-01-02 | $1–15K |
| Gary Palmer | House | purchase | 2018-09-29 | 2017-04-04 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.