Issued 2026-09-25 at $98.66 · now $98.66 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, RYTM has typically landed between $78.81 and $138.73 — a range of −20.1% to +40.6% from the issuance price $98.66.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,234 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-10-05 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($98.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RYTM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $98.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $98.66 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $100.1 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $89.01–$111.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $78.81–$138.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,234 windows spanning 2017-10-05 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-13 | −65.2% | −65.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-14 | −63.6% | −63.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-08 | −62.5% | −62.5% | +1.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-11 | +382.9% | +0.0% | +382.9% |
| 2022-07-08 | +332.1% | −4.1% | +332.1% |
| 2022-07-07 | +325.2% | −1.5% | +325.2% |
2,234 overlapping windows · 2017-10-05 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2026-10-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of Setmelanotide in Patients With Prader-Willi Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-03-13 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Trial of Setmelanotide in Patients With Congenital Hypothalamic Obesity (Sub-study of NCT05774756) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-11-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study of RM-718 in Healthy Subjects and Patients With MC4R Pathway Impairment (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-04-15 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Long-Term Study of Bivamelagon in Participants With Hypothalamic Obesity (HO) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−5.2%
n=9
Feb
33%
−4.9%
n=9
Mar
11%
−5.7%
n=9
Apr
56%
+1.4%
n=9
May
33%
−4.6%
n=9
Jun
56%
+7.0%
n=9
Jul
44%
+23.9%
n=9
Aug
78%
+22.1%
n=9
Sep
33%
−4.4%
n=9
Oct
38%
−1.5%
n=8
Nov
78%
+13.7%
n=9
Dec
56%
+4.1%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Meeker David P | director | Sale | 30,746 @ $102.35 | $3.1M | −10.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 252,073 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Meeker David P | director | Sale | 8,698 @ $103.43 | $900K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 243,375 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Meeker David P | director | Sale | 6,439 @ $101.75 | $655K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 282,819 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Meeker David P | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $105.19 | $242K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 239,258 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Meeker David P | director | Sale | 1,817 @ $104.55 | $190K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 241,558 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-31 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 28,188 @ $106.20 | $3.0M | −19.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 23,072 @ $104.59 | $2.4M | −13.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 153,726 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 11,514 @ $105.37 | $1.2M | −7.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 142,212 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Lee Jennifer Kayden | officer | Sale | 75,834 @ $117.38 | $8.9M | −100.0% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Shulman Joseph | officer | Sale | 5,079 @ $119.75 | $608K | −24.2% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,915 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Garfield Alastair | officer | Sale | 3,400 @ $118.28 | $402K | −52.3% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,095 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Garfield Alastair | officer | Sale | 2,007 @ $116.11 | $233K | −20.0% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,051 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Garfield Alastair | officer | Sale | 1,556 @ $117.08 | $182K | −19.3% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,495 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Garfield Alastair | officer | Sale | 800 @ $119.17 | $95K | −25.8% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,295 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Mazabraud Yann | officer | Sale | 18,208 @ $116.49 | $2.1M | −20.0% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Mazabraud Yann | officer | Sale | 17,319 @ $117.47 | $2.0M | −23.7% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,655 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Mazabraud Yann | officer | Sale | 14,568 @ $115.43 | $1.7M | −13.8% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,182 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Mazabraud Yann | officer | Sale | 3,605 @ $114.70 | $413K | −3.3% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Mazabraud Yann | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $111.80 | $257K | −2.0% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,355 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Mazabraud Yann | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $112.86 | $113K | −0.9% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,355 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Sale | 37,000 @ $100.32 | $3.7M | −84.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | German Christopher Paul | officer | Sale | 4,643 @ $92.21 | $428K | −100.0% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | German Christopher Paul | officer | Sale | 5,614 @ $89.56 | $503K | −97.2% of holding | −1.2% | +3.6% | 160 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 1,692 @ $100.92 | $171K | −1.5% of holding | −10.2% | −6.4% | 111,897 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 1,308 @ $100.27 | $131K | −1.1% of holding | −10.2% | −6.4% | 113,589 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 800 @ $102.10 | $82K | −0.7% of holding | −10.2% | −6.4% | 111,097 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 585 @ $103.28 | $60K | −0.5% of holding | −10.2% | −6.4% | 110,512 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $99.42 | $119K | −1.0% of holding | −13.1% | −0.6% | 117,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 1,069 @ $103.00 | $110K | −0.9% of holding | −13.1% | −0.6% | 115,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 900 @ $101.70 | $92K | −0.8% of holding | −13.1% | −0.6% | 116,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 200 @ $103.84 | $21K | −0.2% of holding | −13.1% | −0.6% | 114,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 200 @ $100.52 | $20K | −0.2% of holding | −13.1% | −0.6% | 117,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 800 @ $98.99 | $79K | −0.7% of holding | −4.0% | +5.7% | 118,566 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 400 @ $97.67 | $39K | −0.3% of holding | −4.0% | +5.7% | 119,366 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 292 @ $96.26 | $28K | −0.2% of holding | −4.0% | +5.7% | 119,766 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 100 @ $100.10 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −4.0% | +5.7% | 118,466 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 2,266 @ $98.37 | $223K | −1.8% of holding | −7.0% | +4.8% | 120,558 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 400 @ $99.44 | $40K | −0.3% of holding | −7.0% | +4.8% | 120,158 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 100 @ $100.85 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −7.0% | +4.8% | 120,058 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 1,913 @ $102.66 | $196K | −1.5% of holding | −7.6% | +2.1% | 123,624 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 700 @ $103.68 | $73K | −0.6% of holding | −7.6% | +2.1% | 122,924 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 100 @ $104.76 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | −7.6% | +2.1% | 122,824 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 3,381 @ $106.06 | $359K | −2.6% of holding | −10.6% | −3.4% | 125,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $104.74 | $157K | −1.1% of holding | −11.4% | −8.8% | 130,665 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $106.60 | $107K | −0.8% of holding | −11.4% | −8.8% | 129,665 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 747 @ $107.67 | $80K | −0.6% of holding | −11.4% | −8.8% | 128,918 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Cramer Pamela J. | officer | Sale | 3,350 @ $111.00 | $372K | −13.9% of holding | −9.3% | −33.9% | 20,814 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Cramer Pamela J. | officer | Sale | 3,350 @ $105.00 | $352K | −13.9% of holding | +6.9% | −26.4% | 20,814 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Cramer Pamela J. | officer | Sale | 3,515 @ $100.00 | $352K | −14.4% of holding | +6.4% | −13.6% | 20,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Cramer Pamela J. | officer | Sale | 19,351 @ $98.82 | $1.9M | −48.2% of holding | −1.4% | −19.6% | 20,814 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Shulman Joseph | officer | Sale | 9,748 @ $115.24 | $1.1M | −53.4% of holding | −6.1% | −29.7% | 8,509 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Shulman Joseph | officer | Sale | 2,815 @ $115.01 | $324K | −24.9% of holding | −4.2% | −33.5% | 8,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Shulman Joseph | officer | Sale | 8,332 @ $112.06 | $934K | −41.1% of holding | −12.3% | −29.0% | 11,921 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Shulman Joseph | officer | Sale | 3,412 @ $112.81 | $385K | −28.6% of holding | −12.3% | −29.0% | 8,509 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Shulman Joseph | officer | Sale | 2,693 @ $110.95 | $299K | −11.7% of holding | −12.3% | −29.0% | 20,253 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Shulman Joseph | officer | Sale | 16,781 @ $105.30 | $1.8M | −66.4% of holding | −8.7% | −20.3% | 8,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Shulman Joseph | officer | Sale | 4,188 @ $100.07 | $419K | −33.0% of holding | −7.9% | −13.2% | 8,509 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 3,477 @ $96.00 | $334K | −2.9% of holding | −3.6% | −8.1% | 116,915 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Sale | 24,611 @ $96.33 | $2.4M | −17.4% of holding | −0.8% | −6.2% | 116,915 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | German Christopher Paul | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $95.00 | $143K | −61.9% of holding | −0.8% | −6.2% | 922 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
225 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Meeker David P | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 289,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Meeker David P | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 15,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Option exercise | 57,187 | 176,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Smith Hunter C | officer | Option exercise | 57,187 | 3,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Joshi Manher | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Joshi Manher | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Lee Jennifer Kayden | officer | Option exercise | 35,000 | 54,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Lee Jennifer Kayden | officer | Option exercise | 21,601 | 75,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Shulman Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 2,024 | 20,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Lee Jennifer Kayden | officer | Option exercise | 35,000 | 36,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Lee Jennifer Kayden | officer | Option exercise | 21,601 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Shulman Joseph | officer | Option exercise | 2,024 | 5,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mazabraud Yann | officer | Option exercise | 46,625 | 112,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mazabraud Yann | officer | Option exercise | 46,625 | 35,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Garfield Alastair | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,150 | 10,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Garfield Alastair | officer | Option exercise | 4,445 | 8,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Garfield Alastair | officer | Option exercise | 4,445 | 12,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Garfield Alastair | officer | Option exercise | 4,445 | 12,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Arbuckle Stuart A | director | Award / grant | 3,691 | 3,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Arbuckle Stuart A | director | Award / grant | 2,324 | 2,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Award / grant | 2,324 | 2,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Award / grant | 3,691 | 3,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Award / grant | 3,691 | 3,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | MCGIRR DAVID W J | director | Award / grant | 3,691 | 3,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | MCGIRR DAVID W J | director | Award / grant | 2,324 | 2,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | JEAN CHRISTOPHE | director | Award / grant | 2,324 | 2,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Award / grant | 2,324 | 2,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | JEAN CHRISTOPHE | director | Award / grant | 3,691 | 3,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Arbuckle Stuart A | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | JEAN CHRISTOPHE | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | MCGIRR DAVID W J | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Arbuckle Stuart A | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 11,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | GOOD JENNIFER L | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 11,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | MCGIRR DAVID W J | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 11,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 11,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | JEAN CHRISTOPHE | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 11,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 11,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Arbuckle Stuart A | director | Option exercise | 4,712 | 11,712 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.