RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.29 · now $40.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RYAN has typically landed between $34.77 and $45.70 — a range of −13.7% to +13.4% from the issuance price $40.29.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,261 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RYAN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$34.77worst · -13.7%$45.7best · +13.4%
  • now $40.29 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.64 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.27–$43
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.77–$45.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,261 windows spanning 2021-07-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-01-26−24.2%−24.2%+0.0%
2026-02-06−23.0%−23.0%+0.0%
2026-01-14−22.9%−22.9%+4.0%
3 best
2026-06-03+33.5%+0.0%+36.2%
2026-06-04+30.7%−0.5%+32.1%
2026-06-02+30.2%−4.4%+30.2%

1,261 overlapping windows · 2021-07-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
−1.3%
n=5
Feb
60%
+2.7%
n=5
Mar
40%
−1.9%
n=5
Apr
40%
−4.5%
n=5
May
60%
+3.1%
n=5
Jun
80%
+6.4%
n=5
Jul
60%
+1.5%
n=5
Aug
67%
+4.5%
n=6
Sep
33%
−0.7%
n=6
Oct
40%
+1.5%
n=5
Nov
80%
+3.6%
n=5
Dec
40%
−4.7%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$60$292026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — MULSHINE BRENDAN MARTIN2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $86K — Conklin Michael2026-06-12: 1 insider purchase, $18K — Kuczinski Anthony J2026-06-11: 1 insider purchase, $87K — Kuczinski Anthony J2026-06-10: 1 insider purchase, $264K — ROGERS JOHN W JR2026-06-05: 1 insider purchase, $3.9M — RYAN PATRICK G2026-06-03: 2 insider purchases, $300K — Hamilton Janice M, KATZ MARK STEPHEN2026-02-23: 2 insider purchases, $1.0M — RYAN PATRICK G JR …2026-02-20: 1 insider purchase, $15K — RYAN PATRICK G JR2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $6.9M — TURNER TIMOTHY WILLIAM2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $225.9M — ONEX CORP2025-09-12: 1 insider purchase, $14.3M — RYAN PATRICK G2025-09-02: 1 insider purchase, $6K — RYAN PATRICK G JR2025-09: 2 open-market purchases, $14.3M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $232.9M2026-02: 3 open-market purchases, $1.0M2026-06: 6 open-market purchases, $4.6M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $86K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesofficer MULSHINE BRENDAN MARTIN — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Conklin Michael — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kuczinski Anthony J — Purchase on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Kuczinski Anthony J — Purchase on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ROGERS JOHN W JR — Purchase on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RYAN PATRICK G — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Hamilton Janice M — Purchase on 2026-06-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer KATZ MARK STEPHEN — Purchase on 2026-06-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RYAN PATRICK G JR — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RYAN PATRICK G JR — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RYAN PATRICK G JR — Purchase on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TURNER TIMOTHY WILLIAM — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector ONEX CORP — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed same daydirector RYAN PATRICK G — Purchase on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector RYAN PATRICK G JR — Purchase on 2025-09-02, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08MULSHINE BRENDAN MARTINofficerSale40,000 @ $40.51$1.6M−34.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open75,366Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13Conklin MichaelofficerSale2,043 @ $42.26$86K−20.0% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open8,153Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorPurchase500 @ $35.77$18K+4.0% of holding+12.1%not yet — horizon still open13,072Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-11Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $34.83$87K+24.8% of holding+17.2%not yet — horizon still open12,572Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-10ROGERS JOHN W JRdirectorPurchase7,500 @ $35.16$264K+6.8% of holding+16.9%not yet — horizon still open117,933Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-05RYAN PATRICK GdirectorPurchase120,000 @ $32.50$3.9M+0.9% of holding+25.5%not yet — horizon still open13,817,859Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-03Hamilton Janice MofficerPurchase6,300 @ $31.79$200K+76.1% of holding+33.7%not yet — horizon still open14,574Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03KATZ MARK STEPHENofficerPurchase3,215 @ $31.07$100K+287.8% of holding+33.7%not yet — horizon still open4,332Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23RYAN PATRICK G JRdirectorPurchase24,000 @ $39.94$959K+6.0% of holding−9.8%−11.8%426,795Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23RYAN PATRICK G JRdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $40.20$60K+0.4% of holding−9.8%−11.8%428,295Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20RYAN PATRICK G JRdirectorPurchase365 @ $41.41$15K+0.1% of holding−11.3%−14.9%256,559Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12TURNER TIMOTHY WILLIAMdirectorSale129,570 @ $53.61$6.9M−91.2% of holding−9.0%−44.8%12,553Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-05ONEX CORPdirectorSale4,145,621 @ $54.50$225.9M−100.0% of holding−9.6%−47.2%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-12RYAN PATRICK GdirectorPurchase276,634 @ $51.84$14.3M+2.1% of holding+4.3%−31.9%13,699,959Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-02RYAN PATRICK G JRdirectorPurchase100 @ $55.54$6K+0.0% of holding−6.4%−36.0%256,194Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-13KATZ MARK STEPHENofficerSale14,377 @ $65.84$947K−92.8% of holding−3.6%−32.1%1,117Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-03BOLGER DAVID PdirectorSale5,000 @ $70.80$354K−6.5% of holding−11.3%−35.3%71,467Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16BICKHAM JEREMIAH RAWLINSofficerSale50,000 @ $70.09$3.5M−95.9% of holding−7.4%−33.6%2,159Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-12Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorPurchase300 @ $70.37$21K+17.7% of holding−8.6%−34.4%1,992Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01Conklin MichaelofficerPurchase7,637—ownership Δ n/a−11.7%−45.8%7,637Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01Conklin MichaelofficerPurchase7,637—ownership Δ n/a−11.7%−45.8%7,637Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-14MULSHINE BRENDAN MARTINofficerSale16,180 @ $69.05$1.1M−53.9% of holding+10.1%−43.8%13,820Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-14MULSHINE BRENDAN MARTINofficerSale13,820 @ $69.59$962K−100.0% of holding+10.1%−43.8%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-10RYAN PATRICK G JRdirectorPurchase75 @ $69.50$5K+0.0% of holding+8.9%−39.7%253,733Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-30CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale8,549 @ $66.33$567K−100.0% of holding+7.8%−16.2%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale30,060 @ $65.67$2.0M−77.8% of holding+7.5%−12.5%8,589Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-29CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale1,309 @ $65.01$85K−100.0% of holding+7.5%−12.5%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-29CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale40 @ $66.04$3K−0.5% of holding+7.5%−12.5%8,549Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale30,100 @ $65.08$2.0M−43.8% of holding+10.2%−13.4%38,649Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-28CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $65.03$319K−78.9% of holding+10.2%−13.4%1,309Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-27CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale30,100 @ $65.29$2.0M−30.5% of holding+6.4%−14.6%68,749Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-27CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $65.02$319K−44.1% of holding+6.4%−14.6%6,209Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-23CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale5,585 @ $65.11$364K−5.3% of holding+7.0%−1.6%98,849Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-23CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $65.13$319K−30.6% of holding+7.0%−1.6%11,109Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-22CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale21,315 @ $66.01$1.4M−15.8% of holding+0.6%−6.8%113,219Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-22CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale8,785 @ $66.45$584K−7.8% of holding+0.6%−6.8%104,434Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-22CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $65.84$323K−23.4% of holding+0.6%−6.8%16,009Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-21CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale21,865 @ $66.02$1.4M−13.3% of holding+1.6%−9.1%142,769Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-21CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale8,235 @ $66.88$551K−5.8% of holding+1.6%−9.1%134,534Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-21CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $66.93$328K−19.0% of holding+1.6%−9.1%20,909Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-17CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale30,100 @ $67.17$2.0M−15.5% of holding+1.6%−7.0%164,634Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-17CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $67.01$328K−16.0% of holding+1.6%−7.0%25,809Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-16CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale23,472 @ $66.80$1.6M−10.4% of holding+0.7%−9.0%201,362Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-16CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale6,628 @ $67.10$445K−3.3% of holding+0.7%−9.0%194,734Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-16CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $66.44$326K−13.8% of holding+0.7%−9.0%30,709Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-15CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale30,100 @ $65.94$2.0M−11.8% of holding+0.8%−6.6%224,834Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-15CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $66.26$325K−12.1% of holding+0.8%−6.6%35,609Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-14CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale30,100 @ $65.43$2.0M−10.6% of holding−1.3%−6.9%254,934Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $65.15$319K−10.8% of holding−1.3%−6.9%40,509Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-13CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale24,566 @ $65.06$1.6M−7.9% of holding−0.5%−5.2%285,034Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-13CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $65.05$319K−9.7% of holding−0.5%−5.2%45,409Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-20CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale91 @ $65.00$6K−0.2% of holding−4.1%+1.3%50,309Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-18CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale30,100 @ $65.17$2.0M−8.9% of holding−0.7%+4.4%309,600Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2024-12-18CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $65.18$319K−8.9% of holding−0.7%+4.4%50,400Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2024-12-17CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale30,100 @ $65.50$2.0M−8.1% of holding+1.8%+5.0%339,700Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-17CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,900 @ $65.62$322K−8.1% of holding+1.8%+5.0%55,300Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-16CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale29,752 @ $66.68$2.0M−7.4% of holding+1.4%+2.7%370,148Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16KATZ MARK STEPHENofficerSale15,000 @ $66.57$999K−100.0% of holding+1.4%+2.7%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale4,548 @ $66.78$304K−7.0% of holding+1.4%+2.7%60,552Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorSale352 @ $67.45$24K−0.6% of holding+1.4%+2.7%60,200Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04MULSHINE BRENDAN MARTINofficerConversion40,000604,235Form 4
2026-09-04MULSHINE BRENDAN MARTINofficerConversion40,000115,366Form 4
2026-08-14CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorOther acquisition313,116313,116Form 4
2026-08-14CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorOther acquisition1,841,0191,841,020Form 4
2026-08-10Bienen Henry SdirectorGift3,00024,795Form 4
2026-08-04RYAN PATRICK GdirectorDisposition287,646287,646Form 4
2026-08-04Keogh Stephen PatrickofficerAward / grant22,92022,920Form 4
2026-08-04Conklin MichaelofficerAward / grant22,92022,920Form 4
2026-07-22Hamilton Janice MofficerWithheld for tax1,70618,689Form 4
2026-07-22Hamilton Janice MofficerOption exercise5,82140,747Form 4
2026-07-22Hamilton Janice MofficerOption exercise5,82120,395Form 4
2026-07-22Hamilton Janice MofficerOption exercise5,82120,395Form 4
2026-05-29Bienen Henry SdirectorGift2,70027,795Form 4
2026-05-28Bienen Henry SdirectorGift5,7570Form 4
2026-05-28Bienen Henry SdirectorGift5,75730,495Form 4
2026-05-05MULSHINE BRENDAN MARTINofficerAward / grant33,71533,715Form 4
2026-05-05RYAN PATRICK GdirectorDisposition1,787,4461,787,446Form 4
2026-05-05KATZ MARK STEPHENofficerAward / grant33,71533,715Form 4
2026-05-05TURNER TIMOTHY WILLIAMdirectorAward / grant168,577168,577Form 4
2026-05-05Hamilton Janice MofficerAward / grant33,71533,715Form 4
2026-05-05Wuller Benjamin MIlesofficerAward / grant33,71533,715Form 4
2026-04-28BOLGER DAVID PdirectorAward / grant5,75720,580Form 4
2026-04-28BUNGERT MICHAEL GdirectorAward / grant4,6154,615Form 4
2026-04-28COLLINS MICHELLE LdirectorAward / grant5,75719,219Form 4
2026-04-28OHALLERAN MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant5,757238,963Form 4
2026-04-28Kuczinski Anthony JdirectorAward / grant5,75710,072Form 4
2026-04-28ROGERS JOHN W JRdirectorAward / grant5,757110,433Form 4
2026-04-28RYAN PATRICK G JRdirectorAward / grant5,757262,316Form 4
2026-04-28Bienen Henry SdirectorAward / grant5,7575,757Form 4
2026-04-28Cornelli FrancescadirectorAward / grant5,75710,377Form 4
2026-04-28CORTEZI NICHOLAS DOMINICdirectorAward / grant5,75710,777Form 4
2026-04-01Conklin MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2,17610,196Form 4
2026-04-01Conklin MichaelofficerOption exercise7,63722,908Form 4
2026-04-01Conklin MichaelofficerOption exercise7,63712,372Form 4
2026-04-01Conklin MichaelofficerOption exercise7,63712,372Form 4
2026-03-03Conklin MichaelofficerAward / grant24,86924,869Form 4
2026-03-03Keogh Stephen PatrickofficerAward / grant24,86924,869Form 4
2026-03-03MULSHINE BRENDAN MARTINofficerAward / grant24,86924,869Form 4
2026-03-03KATZ MARK STEPHENofficerAward / grant24,86924,869Form 4
2026-03-03Hamilton Janice MofficerAward / grant29,84329,843Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.