RYAM · TickerCove

RYAMRayonier Advanced Materials Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.26 · now $8.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RYAM has typically landed between $6.06 and $11.04 — a range of −26.6% to +33.7% from the issuance price $8.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,061 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-06-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$8.26 · 44% of range

$5.52 low$11.75 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.3%

typical move · IQR 27.3%

−26.6%worst (p90)+33.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RYAM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $8.26 (+0.0%)
typical $8.16 (-1.3%)
middle 50% $7.03–$9.28
90% range $6.06–$11.04

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,061 windows spanning 2014-06-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−66.3%	−66.3%	+0.0%
2020-02-11	−65.6%	−65.6%	+2.7%
2020-02-14	−63.4%	−65.2%	+1.4%
3 best
2020-05-05	+143.2%	+0.0%	+143.2%
2022-10-10	+142.5%	−1.0%	+142.5%
2022-10-14	+138.0%	+0.0%	+143.3%

3,061 overlapping windows · 2014-06-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

42%

−2.7%

n=12

Feb

50%

+3.3%

n=12

Mar

50%

−2.0%

n=12

Apr

42%

−0.1%

n=12

May

33%

−2.8%

n=12

Jun

33%

−1.4%

n=12

Jul

62%

+2.5%

n=13

Aug

54%

−0.2%

n=13

Sep

62%

+1.7%

n=13

Oct

33%

+1.4%

n=12

Nov

67%

+18.2%

n=12

Dec

50%

+0.5%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-07	PALUMBO LISA M	director	Sale	1,931 @ $9.13	$18K	−100.0% of holding	−4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-12	Bloomquist DeLyle W	director	Purchase	53,533 @ $4.71	$252K	+11.0% of holding	+27.2%	+68.5%	539,557	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16	Bloomquist DeLyle W	director	Purchase	63,291 @ $3.95	$250K	+15.0% of holding	−8.0%	+25.2%	486,024	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13	Bowen Eric	director	Purchase	12,500 @ $8.04	$100K	ownership Δ n/a	−0.7%	−50.2%	12,500	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

166 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	Brown Timothy Andrew	officer	Award / grant	2,889	2,889	Form 4
2026-08-27	Sittard Christopher W	officer	Award / grant	2,889	2,889	Form 4
2026-08-27	Ribeyrolle Christian Antoine Lucien	officer	Award / grant	27,729	27,729	Form 4
2026-08-27	Osborne Michael D	officer	Award / grant	11,554	11,554	Form 4
2026-08-27	Moeltner Marcus J.	officer	Award / grant	30,386	30,386	Form 4
2026-08-27	Gingras Marie Manon Lise	officer	Award / grant	2,889	2,889	Form 4
2026-08-27	Duffy Kenneth James	officer	Award / grant	4,622	4,622	Form 4
2026-07-16	Ribeyrolle Christian Antoine Lucien	officer	Award / grant	15,840	15,840	Form 4
2026-06-23	Krawczyk Daniel M.	director	Award / grant	202,184	202,184	Form 4
2026-06-22	Krawczyk Daniel M.	director	Award / grant	104,540	104,540	Form 4
2026-05-14	Bowen Eric	director	Option exercise	16,429	39,575	Form 4
2026-05-14	Bowen Eric	director	Option exercise	16,429	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	Smith Ivona	director	Option exercise	16,429	127,042	Form 4
2026-05-14	Smith Ivona	director	Option exercise	16,429	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	Dill Julie	director	Option exercise	16,429	180,551	Form 4
2026-05-14	Kirsch James F	director	Option exercise	16,429	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	PALUMBO LISA M	director	Option exercise	16,429	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	Eggert Charles R	director	Option exercise	16,429	79,984	Form 4
2026-05-14	Eggert Charles R	director	Option exercise	16,429	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	Dill Julie	director	Option exercise	16,429	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	Mariano David C	director	Option exercise	16,429	945,042	Form 4
2026-05-14	Yokley Bryan D	director	Option exercise	16,429	53,381	Form 4
2026-05-14	Yokley Bryan D	director	Option exercise	16,429	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	Mariano David C	director	Option exercise	16,429	0	Form 4
2026-05-14	Kirsch James F	director	Option exercise	16,429	156,355	Form 4
2026-05-14	PALUMBO LISA M	director	Option exercise	16,429	188,592	Form 4
2026-05-13	Kirsch James F	director	Award / grant	12,106	12,106	Form 4
2026-05-13	Dill Julie	director	Award / grant	12,106	12,106	Form 4
2026-05-13	Smith Ivona	director	Award / grant	12,106	12,106	Form 4
2026-05-13	Bowen Eric	director	Award / grant	12,106	12,106	Form 4
2026-05-13	Mariano David C	director	Award / grant	12,106	12,106	Form 4
2026-05-13	Eggert Charles R	director	Award / grant	12,106	12,106	Form 4
2026-05-13	Yokley Bryan D	director	Award / grant	12,106	12,106	Form 4
2026-05-13	PALUMBO LISA M	director	Award / grant	12,106	12,106	Form 4
2026-03-03	Moeltner Marcus J.	officer	Withheld for tax	10,572	203,718	Form 4
2026-03-03	Slaughter Richard Colby	officer	Withheld for tax	4,206	103,365	Form 4
2026-03-03	Osborne Michael D	officer	Withheld for tax	3,264	58,766	Form 4
2026-03-03	Duffy Kenneth James	officer	Withheld for tax	2,180	26,880	Form 4
2026-03-03	Rollins Jared Timothy	officer	Withheld for tax	732	20,526	Form 4
2026-03-03	Brown Timothy Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	611	9,597	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i