Issued 2026-09-25 at $3.74 · now $3.74 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, RXRX has typically landed between $2.62 and $5.33 — a range of −30.0% to +42.6% from the issuance price $3.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,346 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-15 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($3.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RXRX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $3.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.6 (-3.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.11–$4.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.62–$5.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,346 windows spanning 2021-04-15 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-11 | −47.9% | −48.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-10 | −47.8% | −47.8% | +1.7% |
| 2021-07-21 | −46.8% | −47.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-02 | +92.3% | +0.0% | +102.9% |
| 2023-06-22 | +90.1% | −14.5% | +105.7% |
| 2023-05-12 | +87.9% | −3.0% | +87.9% |
1,346 overlapping windows · 2021-04-15 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Evaluate REC-4881 in Participants With Familial Adenomatous Polyposis (FAP) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-10-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study of REC-1245 in Participants With Unresectable, Locally Advanced, or Metastatic Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
−3.6%
n=5
Feb
40%
+4.9%
n=5
Mar
0%
−24.9%
n=5
Apr
40%
−9.0%
n=5
May
50%
+7.7%
n=6
Jun
67%
+11.8%
n=6
Jul
67%
+14.1%
n=6
Aug
33%
−8.3%
n=6
Sep
50%
−2.5%
n=6
Oct
20%
−7.9%
n=5
Nov
40%
+2.9%
n=5
Dec
20%
−0.1%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Khan Najat | director | Sale | 22,408 @ $3.52 | $79K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,072,890 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $3.34 | $100K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,158,287 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $3.25 | $98K | −0.5% of holding | +2.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,188,287 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $3.96 | $159K | −0.6% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,218,287 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Bumpus Namandje | director | Sale | 3,963 @ $3.18 | $13K | −3.0% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,632 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $3.62 | $145K | −4.3% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 883,735 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-05 | Khan Najat | director | Sale | 23,588 @ $3.58 | $84K | −1.1% of holding | +10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,175,796 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Bumpus Namandje | director | Sale | 4,386 @ $3.54 | $16K | −9.2% of holding | +14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $3.68 | $110K | −0.5% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,169,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $3.08 | $123K | −4.3% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 883,735 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $3.37 | $135K | −4.1% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 926,556 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $3.52 | $106K | −0.5% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,199,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $3.61 | $144K | −4.2% of holding | −21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 906,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $3.10 | $124K | −4.2% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 906,556 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $3.10 | $93K | −0.5% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,229,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $3.25 | $130K | −4.2% of holding | +7.0% | +7.1% | 906,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Taylor Ben R | officer | Sale | 7,956 @ $3.39 | $27K | −0.7% of holding | +0.4% | −19.5% | 1,180,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Khan Najat | director | Sale | 28,298 @ $3.35 | $95K | −1.2% of holding | −3.4% | −15.5% | 2,262,085 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 170,000 @ $3.46 | $588K | −2.6% of holding | −10.1% | −18.5% | 6,259,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $3.46 | $138K | −4.2% of holding | −7.6% | −22.2% | 906,556 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Taylor Ben R | officer | Sale | 13,426 @ $3.08 | $41K | −1.1% of holding | −0.7% | −13.5% | 1,195,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $4.12 | $165K | −4.2% of holding | −9.3% | −31.1% | 913,839 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 220,000 @ $4.20 | $924K | −3.3% of holding | −12.5% | −34.9% | 6,429,863 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $4.47 | $179K | −4.2% of holding | −16.5% | −43.2% | 913,839 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 220,000 @ $4.36 | $959K | −3.2% of holding | −19.7% | −26.6% | 6,649,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $4.25 | $170K | −4.1% of holding | −10.5% | −23.8% | 933,839 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Taylor Ben R | officer | Sale | 21,383 @ $4.18 | $89K | −2.7% of holding | +3.7% | −20.1% | 761,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Khan Najat | director | Sale | 124,403 @ $4.41 | $549K | −16.9% of holding | +6.9% | −31.9% | 611,135 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $4.50 | $180K | −4.2% of holding | +15.2% | −32.5% | 913,839 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $4.63 | $185K | −4.1% of holding | −8.9% | −41.1% | 933,839 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 220,000 @ $4.37 | $961K | −3.1% of holding | −3.3% | −23.8% | 6,869,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $4.16 | $166K | −4.2% of holding | +2.7% | −38.5% | 913,839 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-04 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $5.21 | $208K | −3.9% of holding | −3.0% | −43.6% | 974,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $5.70 | $570K | −9.5% of holding | −25.3% | −46.3% | 954,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $6.04 | $604K | −9.3% of holding | −19.6% | −40.4% | 974,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-25 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $4.76 | $476K | −9.5% of holding | +27.5% | −33.4% | 954,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $4.71 | $471K | −9.3% of holding | +27.0% | −30.2% | 974,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $4.84 | $484K | −9.5% of holding | −6.4% | −29.4% | 954,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Khan Najat | director | Sale | 36,599 @ $5.52 | $202K | −5.2% of holding | −17.1% | −43.3% | 668,197 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 500,300 @ $5.28 | $2.6M | −33.2% of holding | −16.7% | −36.7% | 1,004,619 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $5.28 | $528K | −100.0% of holding | −16.7% | −36.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 17,875 @ $5.28 | $94K | −100.0% of holding | −16.7% | −36.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 138,574 @ $6.04 | $837K | −11.0% of holding | +0.7% | −38.3% | 1,117,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $6.37 | $127K | −1.6% of holding | −20.5% | −39.8% | 1,256,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $6.58 | $132K | −1.6% of holding | −19.2% | −43.3% | 1,256,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $8.12 | $162K | −1.5% of holding | −7.8% | −31.7% | 1,273,156 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.68 | $154K | −1.5% of holding | −12.1% | −37.0% | 1,273,156 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.05 | $141K | −2.6% of holding | +7.1% | −31.9% | 736,633 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-08 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.31 | $146K | −2.6% of holding | +2.8% | −33.9% | 736,633 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.12 | $142K | −2.6% of holding | +16.3% | −17.3% | 736,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-04 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.16 | $143K | −2.6% of holding | +13.2% | −24.0% | 736,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-14 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.35 | $147K | −2.6% of holding | +5.4% | −34.7% | 762,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-13 | Gibson Christopher | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $7.74 | $155K | −2.6% of holding | −6.2% | −38.6% | 762,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-13 | Secora Michael | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $7.66 | $115K | −1.0% of holding | −6.2% | −38.6% | 1,499,631 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | Secora Michael | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $7.64 | $115K | −1.0% of holding | −9.2% | −40.0% | 1,475,256 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-12 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 11,447 @ $7.64 | $87K | −0.2% of holding | −9.2% | −40.0% | 7,066,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-29 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 11,447 @ $6.72 | $77K | −0.2% of holding | −8.3% | −13.5% | 7,077,560 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-24 | Marriott Tina | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $6.31 | $38K | −1.1% of holding | −13.2% | −6.4% | 521,138 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-15 | Borgeson Blake | director | Sale | 11,447 @ $6.67 | $76K | −0.2% of holding | +6.7% | −8.9% | 7,089,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-09 | Secora Michael | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $6.36 | $95K | −1.0% of holding | +9.5% | +0.6% | 1,450,881 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
228 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Taylor Ben R | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,396 | 1,071,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Khan Najat | director | Withheld for tax | 80,498 | 2,095,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Hallett David | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,657 | 1,043,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Taylor Ben R | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,018 | 1,076,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Dar Zavain | director | Award / grant | 5,109 | 240,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Li Dean Y | director | Award / grant | 3,747 | 1,473,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Michor Franziska | director | Award / grant | 88,424 | 215,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Borgeson Blake | director | Award / grant | 88,424 | 6,258,287 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Bumpus Namandje | director | Award / grant | 88,424 | 131,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Dar Zavain | director | Award / grant | 88,424 | 235,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | HERSHBERG ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 88,424 | 162,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Li Dean Y | director | Award / grant | 88,424 | 1,469,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Sun Elaine D | director | Award / grant | 88,424 | 135,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Taylor Ben R | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,396 | 1,101,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 923,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 4,263,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 923,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 4,303,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Khan Najat | director | Withheld for tax | 62,701 | 2,199,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hallett David | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,657 | 1,070,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Taylor Ben R | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,018 | 1,107,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gibson Christopher | director | Withheld for tax | 22,821 | 883,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Gibson Christopher | director | Gift | 20,000 | 906,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 60,000 | 966,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 60,000 | 4,343,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 4,403,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 946,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 946,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 4,443,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Taylor Ben R | officer | Withheld for tax | 48,028 | 1,132,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dar Zavain | director | Award / grant | 4,902 | 147,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Li Dean Y | director | Award / grant | 3,268 | 1,244,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 946,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 4,483,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Taylor Ben R | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,075 | 1,188,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 4,523,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Gibson Christopher | director | Gift | 20,000 | 906,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 926,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 4,543,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Gibson Christopher | director | Conversion | 40,000 | 946,556 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.