RXO · TickerCove

RXORXO, Inc.Industrials · Truckingas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.08 · now $19.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RXO has typically landed between $15.04 and $24.07 — a range of −21.2% to +26.2% from the issuance price $19.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

953 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-10-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$19.08 · 46% of range

$10.48 low$29.3 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.8%

typical move · IQR 17.1%

−21.2%worst (p90)+26.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RXO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $19.08 (+0.0%)
typical $18.92 (-0.8%)
middle 50% $17.29–$20.55
90% range $15.04–$24.07

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 953 windows spanning 2022-10-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-10-20	−40.6%	−41.7%	+1.4%
2025-10-15	−40.5%	−40.5%	+3.1%
2025-10-21	−40.5%	−42.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-05-14	+58.3%	+0.0%	+66.3%
2026-05-05	+51.9%	−3.7%	+51.9%
2026-05-04	+51.6%	−1.1%	+52.3%

953 overlapping windows · 2022-10-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

75%

+4.7%

n=4

Feb

75%

+1.3%

n=4

Mar

25%

−4.5%

n=4

Apr

25%

−2.8%

n=4

May

100%

+15.4%

n=4

Jun

100%

+11.5%

n=4

Jul

25%

−2.4%

n=4

Aug

50%

−4.4%

n=4

Sep

25%

−2.1%

n=4

Oct

67%

+1.6%

n=3

Nov

50%

−2.1%

n=4

Dec

25%

−6.0%

n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-12	MFN Partners, LP	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	532,276 @ $12.00	$6.4M	+1.9% of holding	−6.1%	+66.5%	28,109,942	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-20	Cooper Troy A.	director	Purchase	8,317 @ $10.61	$88K	+3.1% of holding	+19.9%	+122.9%	275,416	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-17	Kingshott Adrian	director	Purchase	9,350 @ $10.75	$101K	+11.4% of holding	+30.4%	+113.4%	91,137	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10	Kerr Jason S.	officer	Sale	33,343 @ $11.57	$386K	−43.4% of holding	+30.4%	+62.4%	43,558	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Purchase	7,775 @ $12.88	$100K	ownership Δ n/a	+30.4%	+62.4%	7,775	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-10	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Purchase	3,850 @ $12.80	$49K	ownership Δ n/a	+30.4%	+62.4%	3,850	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-07	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Purchase	20,308 @ $12.37	$251K	+125.4% of holding	+14.4%	+49.9%	36,508	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-14	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Purchase	7,500 @ $16.65	$125K	+86.2% of holding	−12.0%	−44.9%	16,200	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Purchase	8,700 @ $14.41	$125K	ownership Δ n/a	+7.2%	−33.3%	8,700	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

143 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-22	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Withheld for tax	11,172	117,276	Form 4
2026-08-22	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Option exercise	25,716	128,448	Form 4
2026-08-22	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Option exercise	25,716	109,178	Form 4
2026-05-15	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Gift	168,943	430,475	Form 4
2026-05-15	Morris Daniel S.	officer	Award / grant	13,377	23,627	Form 4
2026-05-15	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Gift	168,943	7,775	Form 4
2026-05-02	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Withheld for tax	40,370	162,558	Form 4
2026-05-02	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Option exercise	92,931	545,481	Form 4
2026-05-02	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Option exercise	92,931	202,928	Form 4
2026-03-22	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Withheld for tax	22,923	109,997	Form 4
2026-03-22	HARRIS JAMES E	officer	Withheld for tax	5,643	130,131	Form 4
2026-03-22	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Withheld for tax	5,114	102,732	Form 4
2026-03-22	Kerr Jason S.	officer	Withheld for tax	882	48,443	Form 4
2026-03-22	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Option exercise	11,771	107,846	Form 4
2026-03-22	Kerr Jason S.	officer	Option exercise	2,030	49,325	Form 4
2026-03-22	Kerr Jason S.	officer	Option exercise	2,030	8,982	Form 4
2026-03-22	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Option exercise	11,771	134,894	Form 4
2026-03-22	HARRIS JAMES E	officer	Option exercise	12,989	135,774	Form 4
2026-03-22	HARRIS JAMES E	officer	Option exercise	12,989	239,655	Form 4
2026-03-22	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Option exercise	52,768	132,920	Form 4
2026-03-22	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Option exercise	52,768	638,412	Form 4
2026-02-28	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Withheld for tax	22,990	80,152	Form 4
2026-02-28	HARRIS JAMES E	officer	Withheld for tax	5,660	122,785	Form 4
2026-02-28	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,891	96,075	Form 4
2026-02-28	Kerr Jason S.	officer	Withheld for tax	993	47,295	Form 4
2026-02-28	Kerr Jason S.	officer	Option exercise	2,036	11,012	Form 4
2026-02-28	Kerr Jason S.	officer	Option exercise	2,036	48,288	Form 4
2026-02-28	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Option exercise	8,957	99,966	Form 4
2026-02-28	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Option exercise	8,957	146,665	Form 4
2026-02-28	HARRIS JAMES E	officer	Option exercise	13,028	128,445	Form 4
2026-02-28	HARRIS JAMES E	officer	Option exercise	13,028	252,644	Form 4
2026-02-28	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Option exercise	52,923	103,142	Form 4
2026-02-28	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Option exercise	52,923	691,180	Form 4
2026-02-24	HARRIS JAMES E	officer	Award / grant	53,908	265,672	Form 4
2026-02-24	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Award / grant	37,062	155,622	Form 4
2026-02-24	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Award / grant	219,003	744,103	Form 4
2026-02-23	Wilkerson Andrew M.	director	Withheld for tax	35,379	50,219	Form 4
2026-02-23	HARRIS JAMES E	officer	Withheld for tax	9,808	115,417	Form 4
2026-02-23	Firestone Jeffrey D.	officer	Withheld for tax	7,384	91,009	Form 4
2026-02-23	Kerr Jason S.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,563	46,252	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i