RWT · TickerCove

RWTRedwood Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.89 · now $3.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RWT has typically landed between $3.30 and $4.46 — a range of −15.2% to +14.7% from the issuance price $3.89.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$3.89 · 13% of range

$3.55 low$6.23 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.1%

typical move · IQR 12.6%

−15.2%worst (p90)+14.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RWT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $3.89 (+0.0%)
typical $3.85 (-1.1%)
middle 50% $3.6–$4.09
90% range $3.3–$4.46

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-03-04	−85.3%	−85.3%	+0.0%
2020-02-24	−84.7%	−84.7%	+2.8%
2020-03-05	−83.4%	−84.7%	+0.5%
3 best
2020-05-07	+103.5%	−16.4%	+103.5%
2020-05-13	+102.1%	+0.0%	+143.4%
2020-05-15	+97.4%	+0.0%	+134.7%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+2.2%

n=20

Feb

45%

−0.6%

n=20

Mar

60%

+0.2%

n=20

Apr

45%

−1.3%

n=20

May

45%

+0.4%

n=20

Jun

50%

−0.2%

n=20

Jul

55%

+0.3%

n=20

Aug

55%

+0.9%

n=20

Sep

40%

−1.6%

n=20

Oct

40%

−1.5%

n=20

Nov

65%

+2.8%

n=20

Dec

80%

+2.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-16	Robinson Dashiell I	director	Purchase	63,211 @ $3.98	$252K	+19.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	395,050	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-15	Abate Christopher J	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $3.84	$384K	+17.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	679,283	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-15	KUBICEK GREG H	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $3.85	$193K	+64.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	127,185	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-15	Carillo Brooke	officer	Purchase	26,065 @ $3.85	$100K	+22.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	140,481	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-23	Stone Andrew P	officer	Sale	13,844 @ $6.50	$90K	−8.5% of holding	+0.1%	−8.3%	149,671	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-30	Damon Doneene K	director	Option exercise	4,975	7,455	Form 4
2026-06-30	Damon Doneene K	director	Option exercise	4,975	0	Form 4
2026-06-30	KUBICEK GREG H	director	Award / grant	22,072	22,072	Form 4
2026-06-30	Debora Horvath D	director	Award / grant	11,739	11,739	Form 4
2026-06-26	Debora Horvath D	director	Option exercise	7,259	156,295	Form 4
2026-06-26	Debora Horvath D	director	Option exercise	7,259	0	Form 4
2026-05-26	Falcon Armando	director	Option exercise	20,729	52,551	Form 4
2026-05-26	HANSEN DOUGLAS B	director	Option exercise	20,729	417,702	Form 4
2026-05-26	Debora Horvath D	director	Option exercise	20,729	149,036	Form 4
2026-05-26	Schwartz Faith A	director	Option exercise	20,729	52,551	Form 4
2026-05-26	Falcon Armando	director	Option exercise	20,729	0	Form 4
2026-05-26	Debora Horvath D	director	Option exercise	20,729	0	Form 4
2026-05-26	HANSEN DOUGLAS B	director	Option exercise	20,729	0	Form 4
2026-05-26	Schwartz Faith A	director	Option exercise	20,729	0	Form 4
2026-05-19	Falcon Armando	director	Award / grant	24,809	24,809	Form 4
2026-05-19	Schwartz Faith A	director	Award / grant	24,809	24,809	Form 4
2026-05-19	Debora Horvath D	director	Award / grant	24,809	24,809	Form 4
2026-05-19	KUBICEK GREG H	director	Award / grant	24,809	24,809	Form 4
2026-05-19	HANSEN DOUGLAS B	director	Award / grant	24,809	24,809	Form 4
2026-05-19	Damon Doneene K	director	Award / grant	24,809	24,809	Form 4
2026-05-01	Debora Horvath D	director	Option exercise	25,065	128,307	Form 4
2026-05-01	Debora Horvath D	director	Option exercise	25,065	0	Form 4
2026-04-14	Abate Christopher J	director	Option exercise	51,396	579,283	Form 4
2026-04-14	Robinson Dashiell I	director	Option exercise	20,880	331,839	Form 4
2026-04-14	Carillo Brooke	officer	Option exercise	19,274	114,416	Form 4
2026-04-14	Macomber Sasha G.	officer	Option exercise	8,031	90,403	Form 4
2026-04-14	Stone Andrew P	officer	Option exercise	8,031	178,631	Form 4
2026-04-14	Carillo Brooke	officer	Withheld for tax	22,579	19,274	Form 4
2026-04-14	Stone Andrew P	officer	Withheld for tax	9,407	8,031	Form 4
2026-04-14	Stone Andrew P	officer	Option exercise	8,031	0	Form 4
2026-04-14	Robinson Dashiell I	director	Withheld for tax	24,461	20,880	Form 4
2026-04-14	Robinson Dashiell I	director	Option exercise	20,880	0	Form 4
2026-04-14	Macomber Sasha G.	officer	Withheld for tax	9,407	8,031	Form 4
2026-04-14	Macomber Sasha G.	officer	Option exercise	8,031	0	Form 4
2026-04-14	Carillo Brooke	officer	Option exercise	19,274	0	Form 4
2026-04-14	Abate Christopher J	director	Withheld for tax	60,212	51,396	Form 4
2026-04-14	Abate Christopher J	director	Option exercise	51,396	0	Form 4
2026-03-31	KUBICEK GREG H	director	Award / grant	18,530	18,530	Form 4
2026-03-31	PROCTOR GEORGANNE	director	Award / grant	4,596	4,596	Form 4
2026-03-31	Debora Horvath D	director	Award / grant	10,962	10,962	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i