Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.57 · now $6.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RWAY has typically landed between $5.76 and $7.36 — a range of −12.4% to +12.0% from the issuance price $6.57.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,209 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RWAY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.57 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.59 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.29–$6.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.76–$7.36
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-02-11 | −21.6% | −21.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-05-27 | −21.3% | −21.3% | +0.2% |
| 2025-03-10 | −19.7% | −19.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-09 | +29.8% | +0.0% | +29.8% |
| 2026-07-13 | +26.7% | +0.0% | +29.3% |
| 2026-07-10 | +24.4% | −0.8% | +28.3% |
1,209 overlapping windows · 2021-10-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Rovner Michael | officer | Purchase | 7,000 @ $6.57 | $46K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | SPRENG R DAVID | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $6.89 | $7K | +0.5% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 194,504 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Thomson Carmela | officer | Purchase | 8,000 @ $6.97 | $56K | +165.3% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,840 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Carlson Capital, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 560,105 @ $6.59 | $3.7M | −12.6% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,885,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | OCM Growth Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,250,000 @ $9.05 | $11.3M | −15.1% of holding | −3.3% | −37.0% | 7,029,668 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | OCM Growth Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 500,000 @ $10.80 | $5.4M | −5.7% of holding | −2.5% | −24.2% | 8,279,668 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | OCM Growth Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $10.45 | $10.4M | −10.2% of holding | −1.5% | −21.0% | 8,779,668 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | OCM Growth Holdings LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $10.35 | $10.3M | −9.3% of holding | −13.6% | −21.7% | 9,779,668 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | SPRENG R DAVID | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.34 | $10K | +1.4% of holding | +6.8% | +0.9% | 70,532 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
8 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Raterman Thomas B. | officer | Award / grant | 7,000 | 98,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SPRENG R DAVID | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 193,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Raterman Thomas B. | officer | Award / grant | 2,900 | 91,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Raterman Thomas B. | officer | Award / grant | 100 | 91,359 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | SPRENG R DAVID | director | Other acquisition | 61,986 | 147,525 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Raterman Thomas B. | officer | Other acquisition | 61,986 | 147,525 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | SPRENG R DAVID | director | Other acquisition | 30,637 | 101,169 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Raterman Thomas B. | officer | Other acquisition | 18,438 | 45,879 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.