Issued 2026-09-16 at $145.73 · now $145.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RVTY has typically landed between $126.60 and $165.24 — a range of −13.1% to +13.4% from the issuance price $145.73.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($145.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RVTY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $145.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $145.73 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $145.42 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $137.31–$153.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $126.6–$165.24
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −38.2% | −38.2% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −32.8% | −32.8% | +0.8% |
| 2008-09-30 | −32.5% | −35.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-01 | +36.1% | +0.0% | +36.1% |
| 2009-04-02 | +30.6% | −2.4% | +30.9% |
| 2009-04-03 | +30.3% | −1.7% | +31.8% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$97.70
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$57.62
- Analyst target · range $95.00–$125.00$115.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$145.73
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Gonzales Anita | officer | Sale | 85 @ $109.48 | $9K | −1.2% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,201 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Gonzales Anita | officer | Sale | 80 @ $92.80 | $7K | −1.1% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,319 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Victor Miriame | officer | Sale | 1,862 @ $97.13 | $181K | −9.3% of holding | −5.8% | +16.0% | 18,122 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | McMurry-Heath Michelle | director | Sale | 600 @ $97.26 | $58K | −12.4% of holding | −5.9% | +14.4% | 4,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Sale | 12,186 @ $99.55 | $1.2M | −8.4% of holding | −7.5% | +0.7% | 132,245 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Sale | 7,885 @ $100.63 | $793K | −6.0% of holding | −7.5% | +0.7% | 124,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Sale | 6,424 @ $99.47 | $639K | −11.5% of holding | −7.5% | +0.7% | 49,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Sale | 3,544 @ $100.50 | $356K | −7.2% of holding | −7.5% | +0.7% | 45,996 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Sale | 3,079 @ $101.45 | $312K | −2.5% of holding | −7.5% | +0.7% | 121,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Sale | 2,217 @ $101.33 | $225K | −4.8% of holding | −7.5% | +0.7% | 43,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Sale | 1,307 @ $99.02 | $129K | −0.9% of holding | −7.5% | +0.7% | 144,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Sale | 1,068 @ $102.52 | $109K | −0.9% of holding | −7.5% | +0.7% | 120,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Sale | 532 @ $102.52 | $55K | −1.2% of holding | −7.5% | +0.7% | 43,247 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Vohra Tajinder S | officer | Sale | 5,756 @ $104.50 | $602K | −35.5% of holding | −6.5% | −7.3% | 10,442 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | MICHAS ALEXIS P | director | Sale | 500 @ $89.01 | $45K | −6.4% of holding | −7.7% | +4.4% | 7,270 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | McMurry-Heath Michelle | director | Sale | 600 @ $92.17 | $55K | −11.0% of holding | +0.2% | −1.8% | 4,833 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | McMurry-Heath Michelle | director | Sale | 1,970 @ $119.49 | $235K | −39.5% of holding | +6.8% | −32.7% | 3,021 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Sale | 10,660 @ $126.90 | $1.4M | −23.5% of holding | −9.5% | −33.7% | 34,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Sale | 2,710 @ $125.99 | $341K | −5.6% of holding | −9.5% | −33.7% | 45,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $127.77 | $166K | −3.7% of holding | −9.5% | −33.7% | 33,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Sale | 500 @ $124.45 | $62K | −1.0% of holding | −9.5% | −33.7% | 48,070 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Vohra Tajinder S | officer | Sale | 2,430 @ $116.13 | $282K | −9.7% of holding | −0.1% | −19.4% | 22,714 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Vohra Tajinder S | officer | Sale | 2,388 @ $117.14 | $280K | −10.5% of holding | −0.1% | −19.4% | 20,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Vohra Tajinder S | officer | Sale | 474 @ $117.79 | $56K | −2.3% of holding | −0.1% | −19.4% | 19,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Vohra Tajinder S | officer | Sale | 200 @ $118.92 | $24K | −1.0% of holding | −0.1% | −19.4% | 19,652 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
115 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | MICHAS ALEXIS P | director | Gift | 285 | 6,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Gift | 27,785 | 91,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Gift | 27,785 | 13,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Gift | 7,636 | 105,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Gift | 7,636 | 54,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Gift | 59,650 | 46,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Gift | 59,650 | 59,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Gonzales Anita | officer | Withheld for tax | 33 | 7,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Witz Pascale | director | Award / grant | 1,265 | 15,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | McMurry-Heath Michelle | director | Award / grant | 1,015 | 5,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chapin Samuel R. | director | Award / grant | 1,265 | 22,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Witney Frank | director | Award / grant | 1,015 | 22,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Witney Frank | director | Award / grant | 1,265 | 23,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | MICHAS ALEXIS P | director | Award / grant | 1,217 | 62,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | MICHAS ALEXIS P | director | Award / grant | 1,467 | 63,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | McMurry-Heath Michelle | director | Award / grant | 1,265 | 6,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Vounatsos Michel | director | Award / grant | 1,265 | 13,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Vounatsos Michel | director | Award / grant | 1,015 | 12,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Vandebroek Sophie V. | director | Award / grant | 1,265 | 7,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Vandebroek Sophie V. | director | Award / grant | 1,015 | 6,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chapin Samuel R. | director | Award / grant | 1,015 | 21,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Klobuchar Michael A | director | Award / grant | 1,015 | 6,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Klobuchar Michael A | director | Award / grant | 1,265 | 7,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Barrett Peter | director | Award / grant | 1,015 | 27,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Barrett Peter | director | Award / grant | 1,265 | 28,293 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Witz Pascale | director | Award / grant | 1,015 | 14,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Gonzales Anita | officer | Award / grant | 1,600 | 7,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Gonzales Anita | officer | Award / grant | 4,576 | 4,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gonzales Anita | officer | Award / grant | 1,616 | 1,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Gonzales Anita | officer | Award / grant | 1,721 | 5,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Victor Miriame | officer | Option exercise | 1,862 | 19,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Victor Miriame | officer | Option exercise | 1,862 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Singh Prahlad R. | director | Withheld for tax | 6,901 | 113,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Goldberg Joel S | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,733 | 41,514 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Krakowiak Maxwell | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,457 | 17,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Victor Miriame | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,031 | 18,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Krakowiak Maxwell | officer | Withheld for tax | 902 | 16,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Vohra Tajinder S | officer | Withheld for tax | 566 | 13,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Gonzales Anita | officer | Withheld for tax | 85 | 4,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Gonzales Anita | officer | Withheld for tax | 83 | 4,163 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-04 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-08-14 | 2025-07-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.