Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.62 · now $5.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RVSB has typically landed between $4.94 and $6.33 — a range of −12.2% to +12.7% from the issuance price $5.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RVSB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.63 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.36–$5.9
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.94–$6.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-12-18 | −58.8% | −58.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-12-17 | −57.2% | −57.2% | +1.4% |
| 2008-12-16 | −48.8% | −48.8% | +5.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-01-20 | +143.2% | −2.4% | +164.0% |
| 2009-01-21 | +142.6% | +0.0% | +170.5% |
| 2009-01-22 | +118.8% | +0.0% | +157.8% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
+4.6%
n=20
Feb
60%
−0.1%
n=20
Mar
45%
−0.6%
n=20
Apr
50%
−0.2%
n=20
May
25%
−4.0%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.4%
n=20
Jul
55%
+1.6%
n=20
Aug
60%
−0.1%
n=20
Sep
65%
+0.5%
n=20
Oct
50%
+1.0%
n=20
Nov
65%
+2.0%
n=20
Dec
55%
−0.4%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Zamanizadeh Kourosh Nasser | director | Purchase | 1,800 @ $5.39 | $10K | +13.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Zamanizadeh Kourosh Nasser | director | Purchase | 1,800 @ $5.36 | $10K | +15.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,677 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Benke Robert | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.05 | $5K | +2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,975 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Carlson Bradley | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.07 | $5K | +4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Lam David | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.17 | $5K | +1.3% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Lightheart Charmaine | officer | Purchase | 250 @ $5.31 | $1K | +2.9% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,766 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Girod Jon Louis | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.41 | $5K | +50.0% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Girod Jon Louis | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $5.24 | $10K | ownership Δ n/a | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Lightheart Charmaine | officer | Purchase | 150 @ $5.54 | $831 | +1.8% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Lightheart Charmaine | officer | Purchase | 26 @ $5.59 | $145 | +0.3% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,366 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Benke Robert | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $5.44 | $22K | +9.1% of holding | +4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,984 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Sherman Nicole | director | Purchase | 1,800 @ $5.49 | $10K | +1.1% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 164,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Hoff Larry | director | Purchase | 1,920 @ $5.21 | $10K | +15.9% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,020 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Cox Daniel D | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.22 | $5K | +1.4% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Lightheart Charmaine | officer | Purchase | 325 @ $5.36 | $2K | +2.2% of holding | +7.0% | −15.4% | 14,893 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Wills Bessie Ross | director | Purchase | 2,539 @ $5.39 | $14K | +5.6% of holding | −0.9% | −16.4% | 47,539 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Wills Bessie Ross | director | Purchase | 261 @ $5.37 | $1K | +0.5% of holding | −0.9% | −16.4% | 48,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Wills Bessie Ross | director | Purchase | 200 @ $5.37 | $1K | +0.4% of holding | −0.9% | −16.4% | 47,739 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Sherman Nicole | director | Purchase | 975 @ $5.12 | $5K | +0.5% of holding | −2.3% | +5.4% | 187,674 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Lam David | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $4.93 | $5K | +1.4% of holding | +7.2% | +4.6% | 72,134 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Sherman Nicole | director | Purchase | 1,475 @ $5.04 | $7K | +0.9% of holding | +0.4% | +1.2% | 161,991 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-18 | Carlson Bradley | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $4.97 | $5K | +4.7% of holding | +0.6% | +1.3% | 22,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Lightheart Charmaine | officer | Purchase | 508 @ $4.92 | $2K | +7.3% of holding | +0.7% | +1.8% | 7,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Benke Robert | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $4.85 | $19K | +10.7% of holding | −2.6% | +3.7% | 41,287 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Carlson Bradley | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $4.82 | $5K | +4.9% of holding | −2.6% | +3.7% | 21,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Sowers Courtney Evan | officer | Purchase | 196 @ $5.44 | $1K | +1.0% of holding | +1.2% | −17.4% | 19,666 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Cox Daniel D | officer | Purchase | 560 @ $5.35 | $3K | +0.8% of holding | +1.4% | −18.1% | 68,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Lightheart Charmaine | officer | Purchase | 433 @ $5.43 | $2K | +6.6% of holding | +1.2% | −17.1% | 6,972 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-03 | Lightheart Charmaine | officer | Purchase | 12 @ $5.47 | $66 | +0.2% of holding | +1.2% | −17.1% | 6,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-30 | Lightheart Charmaine | officer | Purchase | 53 @ $5.58 | $296 | +0.8% of holding | −2.9% | −21.0% | 6,527 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Eby Patricia | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.75 | $6K | +22.7% of holding | −11.3% | −25.0% | 5,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Sherman Nicole | director | Purchase | 2,450 @ $6.11 | $15K | +1.5% of holding | −13.1% | −28.0% | 160,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Benke Robert | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $6.10 | $24K | +10.5% of holding | −11.9% | −28.2% | 42,091 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Hoff Larry | director | Purchase | 3,300 @ $6.05 | $20K | +37.5% of holding | −14.5% | −27.9% | 12,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-12 | Friedman Martin S. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 186,348 @ $5.18 | $964K | −100.0% of holding | +14.3% | −24.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Friedman Martin S. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 50,500 @ $5.49 | $277K | −21.3% of holding | +6.1% | −11.7% | 186,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
31 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-19 | Sventek Michael | officer | Award / grant | 7,200 | 20,017 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Sowers Courtney Evan | officer | Award / grant | 6,796 | 23,754 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Sowers Courtney Evan | officer | Award / grant | 10,194 | 33,948 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Sventek Michael | officer | Award / grant | 2,400 | 12,817 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Lam David | officer | Award / grant | 5,162 | 75,056 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Lam David | officer | Award / grant | 7,743 | 82,799 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Lightheart Charmaine | officer | Award / grant | 2,184 | 8,015 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Lightheart Charmaine | officer | Award / grant | 6,553 | 14,568 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Benke Robert | officer | Award / grant | 4,800 | 44,004 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Benke Robert | officer | Award / grant | 7,200 | 51,204 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Cox Daniel D | officer | Award / grant | 6,505 | 69,024 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Cox Daniel D | officer | Award / grant | 9,757 | 78,781 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Sherman Nicole | director | Award / grant | 8,252 | 161,942 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Sherman Nicole | director | Award / grant | 24,757 | 186,699 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Sventek Michael | officer | Award / grant | 2,083 | 6,250 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Sventek Michael | officer | Award / grant | 6,250 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Sowers Courtney Evan | officer | Award / grant | 2,708 | 11,345 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Sowers Courtney Evan | officer | Award / grant | 8,125 | 19,470 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Sherman Nicole | director | Award / grant | 5,534 | 8,034 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Sherman Nicole | director | Award / grant | 24,902 | 32,936 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Sherman Nicole | director | Award / grant | 125,130 | 158,066 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Benke Robert | officer | Award / grant | 2,778 | 29,758 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Benke Robert | officer | Award / grant | 2,083 | 31,841 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Benke Robert | officer | Award / grant | 6,250 | 38,091 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Benke Robert | officer | Award / grant | 1,389 | 26,980 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Cox Daniel D | officer | Award / grant | 2,772 | 60,089 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Cox Daniel D | officer | Award / grant | 8,315 | 68,404 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Lam David | officer | Award / grant | 2,240 | 70,638 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Lam David | officer | Award / grant | 6,721 | 77,359 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Sventek Michael | officer | Award / grant | 1,389 | 1,389 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-30 | Sventek Michael | officer | Award / grant | 2,778 | 4,167 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.