Issued 2026-09-25 at $204.97 · now $204.97 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, RVMD has typically landed between $164.04 and $267.43 — a range of −20.0% to +30.5% from the issuance price $204.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,642 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-02-13 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($204.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RVMD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $204.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $204.97 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $212.93 (+3.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $191.1–$234.77
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $164.04–$267.43
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-07 | −41.4% | −41.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-03 | −40.7% | −40.7% | +2.9% |
| 2023-10-16 | −38.8% | −46.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-15 | +72.4% | +0.0% | +82.0% |
| 2020-04-17 | +61.3% | +0.0% | +65.0% |
| 2020-04-09 | +60.3% | −11.8% | +60.5% |
1,642 overlapping windows · 2020-02-13 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-05-15 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of RAS(ON) Inhibitors in Patients With Gastrointestinal Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-05-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of RMC-6236 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors Harboring Specific Mutations in RAS (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of RAS(ON) Inhibitors in Patients With Advanced RAS-mutated NSCLC (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2027-12-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Daraxonrasib (RMC-6236) in Patients With RAS Mutated NSCLC (RASolve 301) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Daraxonrasib and Daraxonrasib + GnP as First-line Treatment in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of Elironrasib and Daraxonrasib as Monotherapies and Combination Therapy in Participants With Advanced KRAS G12C Mutant Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-12-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Zoldonrasib + Chemo of Investigator's Choice vs Placebo + Chemo of Investigator's Choice as First-line Treatment in Metastatic KRAS G12D-mutated Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma ( RASolute 305 ) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of RAS(ON) Inhibitors in Combination With Ivonescimab in Patients With Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2029-05-10 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Study of Daraxonrasib (RMC-6236) in Patients With Resected Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (PDAC) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | ANDERSON ELIZABETH M | director | Sale | 4,985 @ $192.54 | $960K | −36.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,581 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | ANDERSON ELIZABETH M | director | Sale | 2,648 @ $193.44 | $512K | −30.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,933 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | ANDERSON ELIZABETH M | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $194.59 | $292K | −25.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | ANDERSON ELIZABETH M | director | Sale | 910 @ $191.85 | $175K | −6.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,566 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | ANDERSON ELIZABETH M | director | Sale | 100 @ $195.15 | $20K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,333 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-18 | Mancini Anthony | officer | Sale | 1,764 @ $196.94 | $347K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Sale | 13,775 @ $199.30 | $2.7M | −5.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 253,342 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 5,484 @ $199.30 | $1.1M | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 286,307 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Horn Margaret A | director | Sale | 4,891 @ $199.30 | $975K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 149,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Anders Jack | officer | Sale | 3,992 @ $199.30 | $796K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Sale | 3,314 @ $199.30 | $660K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,541 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Mancini Anthony | officer | Sale | 1,747 @ $199.30 | $348K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,116 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Sandler Alan B. | director | Sale | 336 @ $199.30 | $67K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Sale | 213 @ $195.01 | $42K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 267,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 85 @ $195.01 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 291,791 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Horn Margaret A | director | Sale | 76 @ $195.01 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 154,571 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Anders Jack | officer | Sale | 61 @ $195.00 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 123,208 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Sale | 52 @ $195.01 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 55,855 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Mancini Anthony | officer | Sale | 27 @ $195.05 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-16 | Sandler Alan B. | director | Sale | 5 @ $194.96 | $975 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,204 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 21,447 @ $201.75 | $4.3M | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 336,959 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 18,869 @ $203.06 | $3.8M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 318,090 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 17,949 @ $203.87 | $3.7M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 300,141 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 13,368 @ $200.78 | $2.7M | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 358,406 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 11,833 @ $200.11 | $2.4M | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 371,774 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 4,995 @ $204.84 | $1.0M | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 295,146 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 3,270 @ $205.81 | $673K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 291,876 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Sale | 800 @ $198.55 | $159K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 383,607 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Mancini Anthony | officer | Sale | 6,019 @ $203.28 | $1.2M | −10.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,319 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Mancini Anthony | officer | Sale | 5,530 @ $204.14 | $1.1M | −10.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,789 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Mancini Anthony | officer | Sale | 2,420 @ $205.05 | $496K | −5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,369 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Mancini Anthony | officer | Sale | 1,179 @ $206.10 | $243K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Mancini Anthony | officer | Sale | 300 @ $207.17 | $62K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,890 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 4,730 @ $210.50 | $996K | −52.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,215 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 3,844 @ $211.36 | $812K | −91.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 3,587 @ $208.55 | $748K | −23.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 2,853 @ $209.56 | $598K | −24.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 999 @ $207.33 | $207K | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,385 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 706 @ $206.60 | $146K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 371 @ $212.27 | $79K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 26,160 @ $203.55 | $5.3M | −49.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 12,919 @ $202.48 | $2.6M | −19.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 7,271 @ $204.35 | $1.5M | −26.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,843 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 6,597 @ $201.47 | $1.3M | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 66,193 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 2,128 @ $205.19 | $437K | −10.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 625 @ $206.15 | $129K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Sale | 300 @ $200.56 | $60K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 72,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Sale | 35,938 @ $209.26 | $7.5M | −11.3% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 281,347 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Sale | 25,817 @ $209.25 | $5.4M | −28.0% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,261 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Sale | 24,917 @ $208.37 | $5.2M | −7.3% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 317,285 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Sale | 17,323 @ $208.37 | $3.6M | −15.8% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,078 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Sale | 6,583 @ $211.33 | $1.4M | −2.4% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Sale | 5,128 @ $207.23 | $1.1M | −1.5% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 342,202 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $211.34 | $951K | −7.1% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,221 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Sale | 3,813 @ $210.25 | $802K | −1.4% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 277,534 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Sale | 3,621 @ $212.08 | $768K | −1.3% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 267,330 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Sale | 3,400 @ $207.24 | $705K | −3.0% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,401 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Sale | 3,314 @ $212.06 | $703K | −5.6% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,907 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Sale | 2,540 @ $210.26 | $534K | −3.8% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,721 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Sale | 1,405 @ $209.27 | $294K | −2.2% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,905 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | ANDERSON ELIZABETH M | director | Option exercise | 5,070 | 14,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | ANDERSON ELIZABETH M | director | Option exercise | 5,070 | 1,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Option exercise | 52,500 | 344,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Option exercise | 52,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Option exercise | 40,031 | 384,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Kelsey Stephen Michael | officer | Option exercise | 40,031 | 88,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mancini Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 9,363 | 59,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Mancini Anthony | officer | Option exercise | 9,363 | 96,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Option exercise | 26,600 | 112,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Option exercise | 29,680 | 86,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 347,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Option exercise | 29,680 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Cislini Jeff | officer | Option exercise | 26,600 | 3,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | GOLDSMITH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 80,000 | 344,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Patel Sushil | director | Option exercise | 2,955 | 27,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Patel Sushil | director | Option exercise | 2,955 | 13,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Anders Jack | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 143,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Anders Jack | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 20,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Award / grant | 3,127 | 3,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | ANDERSON ELIZABETH M | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 9,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | ANDERSON ELIZABETH M | director | Award / grant | 3,127 | 3,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Borellini Flavia | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 26,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Borellini Flavia | director | Award / grant | 3,127 | 3,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Borisy Alexis | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 2,340,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Borisy Alexis | director | Award / grant | 3,127 | 3,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Clyburn Frank | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 10,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Clyburn Frank | director | Award / grant | 3,127 | 3,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horning Sandra | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 97,765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horning Sandra | director | Award / grant | 3,127 | 3,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Kim Lorence H. | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 74,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Patel Sushil | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 24,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Patel Sushil | director | Award / grant | 3,127 | 3,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horn Margaret A | director | Option exercise | 25,725 | 184,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horn Margaret A | director | Option exercise | 3,302 | 158,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horn Margaret A | director | Option exercise | 573 | 155,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horn Margaret A | director | Option exercise | 3,302 | 71,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horn Margaret A | director | Option exercise | 573 | 75,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Horn Margaret A | director | Option exercise | 25,725 | 114,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Horn Margaret A | director | Option exercise | 44,854 | 218,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Horn Margaret A | director | Option exercise | 15,546 | 173,768 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.