Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.27 · now $8.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RUN has typically landed between $5.65 and $11.61 — a range of −31.7% to +40.4% from the issuance price $8.27.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,774 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-08-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RUN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.27 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.02 (-3.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.71–$9.34
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.65–$11.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,774 windows spanning 2015-08-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −64.3% | −64.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −59.5% | −60.4% | +4.1% |
| 2020-02-18 | −59.1% | −59.1% | +7.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-06-26 | +117.8% | +0.0% | +128.7% |
| 2020-06-23 | +115.1% | −5.9% | +115.1% |
| 2020-06-25 | +113.8% | −6.5% | +113.8% |
2,774 overlapping windows · 2015-08-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−0.6%
n=11
Feb
45%
−7.0%
n=11
Mar
45%
−2.6%
n=11
Apr
55%
+1.0%
n=11
May
64%
+10.5%
n=11
Jun
64%
+6.2%
n=11
Jul
73%
+16.0%
n=11
Aug
45%
+5.5%
n=11
Sep
33%
−2.5%
n=12
Oct
27%
−8.5%
n=11
Nov
36%
+4.8%
n=11
Dec
45%
+3.6%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $9.96 | $498K | −12.0% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 367,405 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Barak Maria | officer | Sale | 3,278 @ $12.17 | $40K | −3.5% of holding | −21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,033 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-06 | Powell Mary | director | Sale | 23,985 @ $13.19 | $316K | −2.1% of holding | −17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,111,535 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Sale | 16,495 @ $13.19 | $218K | −3.8% of holding | −17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 420,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Sale | 15,613 @ $13.18 | $206K | −1.8% of holding | −17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 839,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Sale | 9,897 @ $13.19 | $131K | −2.1% of holding | −17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Barak Maria | officer | Sale | 1,747 @ $13.17 | $23K | −1.8% of holding | −17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,311 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.61 | $680K | −10.9% of holding | −25.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 409,091 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Lontoh Sonita | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $12.00 | $90K | −18.1% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Abajian Danny | officer | Sale | 2,030 @ $13.39 | $27K | −0.5% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 438,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $15.92 | $796K | −9.8% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 459,091 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $12.89 | $645K | −9.0% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 507,947 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Barak Maria | officer | Sale | 8,039 @ $13.67 | $110K | −9.9% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Powell Mary | director | Sale | 193,002 @ $13.25 | $2.6M | −17.1% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 934,282 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Sale | 132,953 @ $13.25 | $1.8M | −23.5% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 432,157 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Sale | 127,673 @ $13.25 | $1.7M | −15.3% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 707,126 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Sale | 76,478 @ $13.25 | $1.0M | −16.6% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 384,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Barak Maria | officer | Sale | 4,641 @ $13.25 | $61K | −5.4% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,002 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $14.07 | $704K | −8.2% of holding | −17.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 557,947 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Powell Mary | director | Sale | 2,229 @ $11.94 | $27K | −0.2% of holding | +18.3% | −36.8% | 1,127,951 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Sale | 1,412 @ $11.98 | $17K | −0.2% of holding | +18.3% | −36.8% | 568,151 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Sale | 1,090 @ $11.94 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | +18.3% | −36.8% | 835,314 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Sale | 901 @ $11.97 | $11K | −0.2% of holding | +18.3% | −36.8% | 461,290 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 450 @ $11.99 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | +18.3% | −36.8% | 607,947 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | FERBER ALAN | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $11.92 | $149K | +19.3% of holding | +26.0% | −40.0% | 77,134 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $12.72 | $636K | −7.6% of holding | +13.3% | −43.9% | 608,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 5,507 @ $12.33 | $68K | −0.8% of holding | +13.3% | −43.9% | 658,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Powell Mary | director | Sale | 5,357 @ $12.33 | $66K | −0.5% of holding | +13.3% | −43.9% | 1,130,180 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Abajian Danny | officer | Sale | 4,193 @ $12.33 | $52K | −0.7% of holding | +13.3% | −43.9% | 576,244 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Sale | 1,104 @ $12.34 | $14K | −0.2% of holding | +13.3% | −43.9% | 462,191 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Sale | 1,021 @ $12.33 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | +13.3% | −43.9% | 836,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Fenster Edward Harris | director | Sale | 134,813 @ $19.79 | $2.7M | −7.7% of holding | −32.4% | −61.6% | 1,607,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Fenster Edward Harris | director | Sale | 29,031 @ $20.72 | $601K | −1.8% of holding | −32.4% | −61.6% | 1,578,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 48,900 @ $18.58 | $909K | −7.0% of holding | −31.6% | −50.9% | 652,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $19.26 | $21K | −0.2% of holding | −31.6% | −50.9% | 651,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Barak Maria | officer | Sale | 1,630 @ $18.55 | $30K | −1.9% of holding | +14.5% | −38.2% | 85,643 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Powell Mary | director | Sale | 8,754 @ $17.80 | $156K | −1.0% of holding | +5.7% | −41.1% | 864,946 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Sale | 7,190 @ $17.80 | $128K | −1.7% of holding | +5.7% | −41.1% | 405,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Sale | 6,119 @ $17.80 | $109K | −0.9% of holding | +5.7% | −41.1% | 639,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Sale | 4,430 @ $17.80 | $79K | −1.2% of holding | +5.7% | −41.1% | 355,489 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Barak Maria | officer | Sale | 1,201 @ $17.80 | $21K | −1.4% of holding | +5.7% | −41.1% | 87,273 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $19.28 | $964K | −6.7% of holding | −5.9% | −47.3% | 701,175 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Fenster Edward Harris | director | Sale | 32,787 @ $20.00 | $656K | −2.2% of holding | −4.3% | −40.6% | 1,492,139 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Powell Mary | director | Sale | 2,890 @ $17.80 | $51K | −0.3% of holding | +0.2% | −40.8% | 873,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Sale | 2,371 @ $17.79 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | +0.2% | −40.8% | 645,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Abajian Danny | officer | Sale | 2,007 @ $17.79 | $36K | −0.5% of holding | +0.2% | −40.8% | 414,699 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Sale | 1,870 @ $17.80 | $33K | −0.5% of holding | +0.2% | −40.8% | 359,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 451 @ $17.79 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | +0.2% | −40.8% | 751,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Fenster Edward Harris | director | Sale | 133,256 @ $18.11 | $2.4M | −8.3% of holding | −2.1% | −36.4% | 1,474,926 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $19.57 | $979K | −6.2% of holding | −1.3% | −31.4% | 751,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Barak Maria | officer | Sale | 6,329 @ $19.22 | $122K | −6.7% of holding | −9.3% | −39.0% | 88,474 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $20.41 | $1.0M | −5.9% of holding | −10.7% | −43.8% | 800,482 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Sale | 4,475 @ $21.71 | $97K | −1.2% of holding | −12.4% | −49.1% | 361,789 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Sale | 21,037 @ $20.25 | $426K | −5.4% of holding | −15.7% | −40.0% | 366,264 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Sale | 1,526 @ $19.75 | $30K | −0.4% of holding | +5.7% | −33.1% | 387,301 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-07 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Sale | 12,493 @ $20.02 | $250K | −1.9% of holding | +4.5% | −33.7% | 647,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Powell Mary | director | Sale | 11,699 @ $19.34 | $226K | −1.3% of holding | −1.5% | −29.2% | 876,590 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Sale | 9,055 @ $19.35 | $175K | −2.1% of holding | −1.5% | −29.2% | 424,606 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Sale | 8,134 @ $19.34 | $157K | −1.2% of holding | −1.5% | −29.2% | 647,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Sale | 4,440 @ $19.34 | $86K | −1.1% of holding | −1.5% | −29.2% | 388,827 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
92 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 17,052 | 374,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 17,052 | 403,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Award / grant | 8,314 | 417,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fenster Edward Harris | director | Award / grant | 8,314 | 1,567,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 1,968 | 359,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 1,968 | 436,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Award / grant | 87,074 | 471,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Abajian Danny | officer | Award / grant | 130,611 | 439,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Barak Maria | officer | Award / grant | 20,123 | 93,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Award / grant | 148,026 | 855,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Powell Mary | director | Award / grant | 201,238 | 1,135,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 123,463 | 355,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 123,463 | 308,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 2,586 | 565,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 2,586 | 231,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 6,681 | 229,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 6,681 | 569,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Powell Mary | director | Award / grant | 35,192 | 914,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Powell Mary | director | Award / grant | 14,065 | 879,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Abajian Danny | officer | Award / grant | 10,874 | 405,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Abajian Danny | officer | Award / grant | 23,994 | 429,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Abajian Danny | officer | Award / grant | 150,909 | 580,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Powell Mary | director | Award / grant | 221,334 | 1,135,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Fenster Edward Harris | director | Award / grant | 5,570 | 1,559,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Award / grant | 23,994 | 666,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Award / grant | 2,864 | 358,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Award / grant | 14,397 | 372,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | STEELE JEANNA | officer | Award / grant | 90,545 | 463,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Award / grant | 3,291 | 642,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dickson Paul S. | officer | Award / grant | 171,030 | 837,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | director | Award / grant | 12,729 | 663,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Fenster Edward Harris | director | Option exercise | 250,600 | 1,742,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Fenster Edward Harris | director | Gift | 25,000 | 1,553,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Fenster Edward Harris | director | Option exercise | 250,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 10,858 | 222,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-06 | Abajian Danny | officer | Gift | 10,858 | 394,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lontoh Sonita | director | Award / grant | 9,687 | 51,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Trinta John | director | Award / grant | 9,687 | 29,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Cornelius Craig | director | Award / grant | 9,687 | 11,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Dach Leslie A | director | Award / grant | 9,687 | 112,629 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.