RTXRTX CorporationIndustrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $189.40 · now $189.40 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, RTX has typically landed between $170.24 and $210.77 — a range of −10.1% to +11.3% from the issuance price $189.40.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($189.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $189.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$170.24worst · -10.1%$210.77best · +11.3%
  • now $189.4 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $193.27 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $185.29–$201.26
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $170.24–$210.77
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−50.5%−50.5%+0.0%
2020-02-18−47.5%−47.5%+0.2%
2020-02-20−44.9%−47.0%+1.1%
3 best
2020-03-23+43.5%+0.0%+49.5%
2020-10-28+42.2%+0.0%+43.1%
2020-03-18+41.1%−5.6%+41.1%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$286.8B
market cap
$5.68
EPS (TTM)
37.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-20
next earnings
Revenue$88.6B
'20'25
Net income$6.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$7.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr7.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr10.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.61
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $189.40$168.04$256.07
  • DCF (intrinsic)$236.30
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$174.11
  • Analyst target · range $204.00–$250.00$235.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$189.40

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+2.3%
n=18
Feb
68%
+2.2%
n=19
Mar
42%
−0.6%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.6%
n=19
May
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.0%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.2%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.7%
n=19
Oct
67%
+2.7%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.8%
n=18
Dec
72%
+1.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$225$1502026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — Maharajh Ramsaran2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $488K — DaSilva Kevin G2026-07-27: 1 insider sale, $500K — Atkinson Tracy A2026-07-24: 3 insider sales, $2.8M — Brunk Troy D, DaSilva Kevin G …2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — Williams Dantaya M2026-02-19: 7 insider sales, $23.4M — Calio Christopher T., Mitchill Neil G. JR, Maharajh Ramsaran …2026-02-13: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — DaSilva Kevin G …2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $3.5M — Eddy Shane G2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Johnson Amy L2025-10-27: 1 insider sale, $858K — Calio Christopher T.2025-10-24: 2 insider sales, $1.4M — Mitchill Neil G. JR, Atkinson Tracy A2025-08-27: 1 insider sale, $4.1M — Eddy Shane G2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $7.4M2025-10: 3 open-market sales, $2.2M2026-02: 12 open-market sales, $32.7M2026-07: 5 open-market sales, $3.8M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $3.1M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Maharajh Ramsaran — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DaSilva Kevin G — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed same daydirector Atkinson Tracy A — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brunk Troy D — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer DaSilva Kevin G — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Brunk Troy D — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Williams Dantaya M — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed same daydirector Calio Christopher T. — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mitchill Neil G. JR — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Maharajh Ramsaran — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Calio Christopher T. — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mitchill Neil G. JR — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mitchill Neil G. JR — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Calio Christopher T. — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer DaSilva Kevin G — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed same dayofficer DaSilva Kevin G — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed same dayofficer Eddy Shane G — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Johnson Amy L — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed same daydirector Calio Christopher T. — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Mitchill Neil G. JR — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Atkinson Tracy A — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Eddy Shane G — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Maharajh RamsaranofficerSale13,655 @ $223.92$3.1M−50.9% of holding−13.3%not yet — horizon still open13,184Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28DaSilva Kevin GofficerSale2,250 @ $216.93$488K−10.1% of holding−6.4%not yet — horizon still open20,099Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-27Atkinson Tracy AdirectorSale2,295 @ $218.05$500K−56.3% of holding−7.4%not yet — horizon still open1,785Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-24Brunk Troy DofficerSale6,746 @ $210.20$1.4M−43.4% of holding−5.0%not yet — horizon still open8,809Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-24DaSilva Kevin GofficerSale4,760 @ $213.62$1.0M−17.6% of holding−5.0%not yet — horizon still open22,349Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-24Brunk Troy DofficerSale1,811 @ $210.65$381K−7.8% of holding−5.0%not yet — horizon still open21,409Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-23Williams Dantaya MofficerSale12,713 @ $202.83$2.6M−43.1% of holding+0.1%−8.4%16,749Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-19Calio Christopher T.directorSale51,107 @ $203.57$10.4M−36.1% of holding+1.8%−7.9%90,268Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorSale23,531 @ $205.57$4.8M−28.3% of holding+1.8%−7.9%59,556Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Maharajh RamsaranofficerSale15,124 @ $204.65$3.1M−53.4% of holding+1.8%−7.9%13,184Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Calio Christopher T.directorSale11,420 @ $204.70$2.3M−6.9% of holding+1.8%−7.9%152,979Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorSale6,303 @ $205.54$1.3M−7.1% of holding+1.8%−7.9%83,087Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorSale5,921 @ $205.54$1.2M−6.2% of holding+1.8%−7.9%89,390Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Calio Christopher T.directorSale1,041 @ $205.25$214K−0.6% of holding+1.8%−7.9%164,399Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13DaSilva Kevin GofficerSale7,951 @ $201.31$1.6M−22.7% of holding+3.6%−2.3%27,102Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13DaSilva Kevin GofficerSale185 @ $200.67$37K−0.5% of holding+3.6%−2.3%35,053Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-12Eddy Shane GofficerSale17,527 @ $199.16$3.5M−100.0% of holding+4.6%−2.9%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10Johnson Amy LofficerSale8,088 @ $195.03$1.6M−42.3% of holding+8.1%+2.4%11,023Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-27Calio Christopher T.directorSale4,813 @ $178.32$858K−5.6% of holding−2.1%−7.3%81,508Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-24Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorSale4,849 @ $180.15$874K−7.5% of holding−1.4%−6.6%59,556Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-24Atkinson Tracy AdirectorSale2,800 @ $178.91$501K−40.7% of holding−1.4%−6.6%4,080Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-27Eddy Shane GofficerSale25,968 @ $159.79$4.1M−100.0% of holding−0.4%+21.0%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Brunk Troy DofficerSale7,654 @ $155.20$1.2M−31.8% of holding−0.5%+19.2%16,442Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04JASPER PHILIP JofficerSale12,847 @ $157.82$2.0M−42.1% of holding−1.1%+20.5%17,684Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-24DaSilva Kevin GofficerSale8,704 @ $156.20$1.4M−22.5% of holding−0.6%+18.0%30,004Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-23Maharajh RamsaranofficerSale1,462 @ $152.26$223K−10.0% of holding+0.1%+17.3%13,184Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03Williams Dantaya MofficerSale16,922 @ $137.62$2.3M−50.6% of holding+0.8%+8.8%16,538Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-06Johnson Amy LofficerSale2,515 @ $127.57$321K−20.9% of holding+2.9%+16.8%9,546Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-06Johnson Amy LofficerSale1,631 @ $127.49$208K−11.9% of holding+2.9%+16.8%12,061Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-23Winnefeld James A JrdirectorPurchase200 @ $117.90$24K+2.6% of holding+2.6%+23.9%8,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-27Calio Christopher T.directorSale27,379 @ $130.36$3.6M−25.1% of holding+5.7%+12.7%81,508Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-27Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorSale16,118 @ $130.35$2.1M−21.3% of holding+5.7%+12.7%59,556Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-25Maharajh RamsaranofficerSale10,000 @ $126.83$1.3M−25.2% of holding+9.5%+17.3%29,742Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25Maharajh RamsaranofficerSale9,431 @ $126.81$1.2M−19.2% of holding+9.5%+17.3%39,742Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24Brunk Troy DofficerSale2,872 @ $125.95$362K−35.3% of holding+11.5%+17.6%5,272Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19HAYES GREGORYdirectorSale58,368 @ $125.36$7.3M−10.0% of holding+15.5%+22.0%523,423Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19HAYES GREGORYdirectorSale43,300 @ $125.18$5.4M−100.0% of holding+15.5%+22.0%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19DaSilva Kevin GofficerSale5,000 @ $126.02$630K−11.4% of holding+15.5%+22.0%38,708Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-18Eddy Shane GofficerSale15,700 @ $124.45$2.0M−100.0% of holding+17.1%+20.7%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18DaSilva Kevin GofficerSale5,368 @ $124.20$667K−10.9% of holding+17.1%+20.7%43,708Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Williams Dantaya MofficerSale14,031 @ $129.23$1.8M−24.0% of holding+4.6%+16.6%44,415Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-07-31HAYES GREGORYdirectorSale96,287 @ $117.75$11.3M−14.5% of holding+3.3%+1.0%566,723Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-07-31HAYES GREGORYdirectorSale38,600 @ $117.70$4.5M−5.5% of holding+3.3%+1.0%663,010Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-07-30Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorSale4,322 @ $115.43$499K−6.1% of holding+0.9%−0.8%66,470Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-07-29JASPER PHILIP JofficerSale12,232 @ $113.65$1.4M−52.1% of holding+1.9%−0.7%11,251Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-07-29Calio Christopher T.directorSale4,235 @ $114.00$483K−4.6% of holding+1.9%−0.7%88,509Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-07-29Johnson Amy LofficerSale3,791 @ $113.91$432K−23.5% of holding+1.9%−0.7%12,318Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-07-29Johnson Amy LofficerSale2,943 @ $113.84$335K−15.4% of holding+1.9%−0.7%16,109Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-07-26Williams Dantaya MofficerSale9,000 @ $114.83$1.0M−18.8% of holding+1.7%+2.1%38,855Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-07-26Williams Dantaya MofficerSale8,570 @ $114.92$985K−15.2% of holding+1.7%+2.1%47,855Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-07-26DaSilva Kevin GofficerSale8,166 @ $114.96$939K−15.3% of holding+1.7%+2.1%45,208Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-07-26Eddy Shane GofficerSale6,741 @ $114.76$774K−100.0% of holding+1.7%+2.1%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-07-26Maharajh RamsaranofficerSale2,270 @ $114.71$260K−11.9% of holding+1.7%+2.1%16,872Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-05-10Timm Stephen J.directorSale19,880 @ $105.72$2.1M−11.8% of holding−1.9%+2.0%149,050Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-04-30Ortberg Robert KellydirectorSale10,295 @ $101.97$1.0M−7.4% of holding+0.6%+5.7%129,120Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

245 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Maharajh RamsaranofficerOption exercise20,06933,253Form 4
2026-08-18Maharajh RamsaranofficerDisposition6,41426,839Form 4
2026-08-18Maharajh RamsaranofficerOption exercise20,0690Form 4
2026-07-24Brunk Troy DofficerOption exercise12,60023,220Form 4
2026-07-24Brunk Troy DofficerDisposition5,85415,555Form 4
2026-07-24Brunk Troy DofficerOption exercise12,6000Form 4
2026-07-01JASPER PHILIP JofficerAward / grant20,86033,637Form 4
2026-04-30ROGERS BRIAN CdirectorAward / grant2,10138,422Form 4
2026-04-30Ramos Denise LdirectorAward / grant1,95929,291Form 4
2026-04-30Reynolds FredricdirectorAward / grant1,34624,799Form 4
2026-04-30Caret Leanne GdirectorAward / grant1,3128,737Form 4
2026-04-30Atkinson Tracy AdirectorAward / grant1,29516,668Form 4
2026-04-30Oliver GeorgedirectorAward / grant1,26117,130Form 4
2026-04-30Pawlikowski Ellen MdirectorAward / grant1,26116,792Form 4
2026-04-30Harris Bernard A JrdirectorAward / grant1,17611,966Form 4
2026-04-30Work Robert OdirectorAward / grant1,17618,389Form 4
2026-02-19Calio Christopher T.directorOption exercise31,199165,440Form 4
2026-02-19Calio Christopher T.directorDisposition11,604141,375Form 4
2026-02-19Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorOption exercise10,00093,087Form 4
2026-02-19Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorDisposition3,69795,311Form 4
2026-02-19Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorOption exercise9,394102,481Form 4
2026-02-19Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorDisposition3,47399,008Form 4
2026-02-19Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorOption exercise9,39410,000Form 4
2026-02-19Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorOption exercise10,0000Form 4
2026-02-19Calio Christopher T.directorOption exercise31,1990Form 4
2026-02-11Calio Christopher T.directorAward / grant133,200133,200Form 4
2026-02-11Mitchill Neil G. JRdirectorAward / grant47,60047,600Form 4
2026-02-11JASPER PHILIP JofficerAward / grant30,20030,200Form 4
2026-02-11Eddy Shane GofficerAward / grant28,60028,600Form 4
2026-02-11Brunk Troy DofficerAward / grant28,60028,600Form 4
2026-02-11Maharajh RamsaranofficerAward / grant25,40025,400Form 4
2026-02-11Williams Dantaya MofficerAward / grant22,20022,200Form 4
2026-02-11Johnson Amy LofficerAward / grant8,6008,600Form 4
2026-02-11DaSilva Kevin GofficerAward / grant3,1003,100Form 4
2026-02-11Johnson Amy LofficerAward / grant1,37517,772Form 4
2026-02-11DaSilva Kevin GofficerAward / grant2,48510,355Form 4
2026-02-10Johnson Amy LofficerDisposition6,23019,111Form 4
2026-02-10Johnson Amy LofficerOption exercise10,11821,141Form 4
2026-02-10Johnson Amy LofficerOption exercise4,20025,341Form 4
2026-02-10Johnson Amy LofficerOption exercise10,1180Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2026-01-162025-12-29$15–50K
Roger WilliamsHousepurchase2026-01-152025-12-22$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2025-09-172025-08-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-09-112025-08-14$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2025-06-142025-05-30$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2025-05-162025-04-11$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-07$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2025-05-142025-04-23$1–15K
Bruce WestermanHousesale2025-05-122025-04-21$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.