Issued 2026-09-25 at $189.40 · now $189.40 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, RTX has typically landed between $170.24 and $210.77 — a range of −10.1% to +11.3% from the issuance price $189.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($189.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $189.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $189.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $193.27 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $185.29–$201.26
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $170.24–$210.77
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −50.5% | −50.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −47.5% | −47.5% | +0.2% |
| 2020-02-20 | −44.9% | −47.0% | +1.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +43.5% | +0.0% | +49.5% |
| 2020-10-28 | +42.2% | +0.0% | +43.1% |
| 2020-03-18 | +41.1% | −5.6% | +41.1% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$236.30
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$174.11
- Analyst target · range $204.00–$250.00$235.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$189.40
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Maharajh Ramsaran | officer | Sale | 13,655 @ $223.92 | $3.1M | −50.9% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | DaSilva Kevin G | officer | Sale | 2,250 @ $216.93 | $488K | −10.1% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,099 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-27 | Atkinson Tracy A | director | Sale | 2,295 @ $218.05 | $500K | −56.3% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,785 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Brunk Troy D | officer | Sale | 6,746 @ $210.20 | $1.4M | −43.4% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,809 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | DaSilva Kevin G | officer | Sale | 4,760 @ $213.62 | $1.0M | −17.6% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,349 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Brunk Troy D | officer | Sale | 1,811 @ $210.65 | $381K | −7.8% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,409 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Williams Dantaya M | officer | Sale | 12,713 @ $202.83 | $2.6M | −43.1% of holding | +0.1% | −8.4% | 16,749 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Calio Christopher T. | director | Sale | 51,107 @ $203.57 | $10.4M | −36.1% of holding | +1.8% | −7.9% | 90,268 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Sale | 23,531 @ $205.57 | $4.8M | −28.3% of holding | +1.8% | −7.9% | 59,556 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Maharajh Ramsaran | officer | Sale | 15,124 @ $204.65 | $3.1M | −53.4% of holding | +1.8% | −7.9% | 13,184 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Calio Christopher T. | director | Sale | 11,420 @ $204.70 | $2.3M | −6.9% of holding | +1.8% | −7.9% | 152,979 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Sale | 6,303 @ $205.54 | $1.3M | −7.1% of holding | +1.8% | −7.9% | 83,087 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Sale | 5,921 @ $205.54 | $1.2M | −6.2% of holding | +1.8% | −7.9% | 89,390 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Calio Christopher T. | director | Sale | 1,041 @ $205.25 | $214K | −0.6% of holding | +1.8% | −7.9% | 164,399 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | DaSilva Kevin G | officer | Sale | 7,951 @ $201.31 | $1.6M | −22.7% of holding | +3.6% | −2.3% | 27,102 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | DaSilva Kevin G | officer | Sale | 185 @ $200.67 | $37K | −0.5% of holding | +3.6% | −2.3% | 35,053 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | Eddy Shane G | officer | Sale | 17,527 @ $199.16 | $3.5M | −100.0% of holding | +4.6% | −2.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Sale | 8,088 @ $195.03 | $1.6M | −42.3% of holding | +8.1% | +2.4% | 11,023 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-27 | Calio Christopher T. | director | Sale | 4,813 @ $178.32 | $858K | −5.6% of holding | −2.1% | −7.3% | 81,508 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Sale | 4,849 @ $180.15 | $874K | −7.5% of holding | −1.4% | −6.6% | 59,556 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | Atkinson Tracy A | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $178.91 | $501K | −40.7% of holding | −1.4% | −6.6% | 4,080 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Eddy Shane G | officer | Sale | 25,968 @ $159.79 | $4.1M | −100.0% of holding | −0.4% | +21.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Brunk Troy D | officer | Sale | 7,654 @ $155.20 | $1.2M | −31.8% of holding | −0.5% | +19.2% | 16,442 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | JASPER PHILIP J | officer | Sale | 12,847 @ $157.82 | $2.0M | −42.1% of holding | −1.1% | +20.5% | 17,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | DaSilva Kevin G | officer | Sale | 8,704 @ $156.20 | $1.4M | −22.5% of holding | −0.6% | +18.0% | 30,004 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Maharajh Ramsaran | officer | Sale | 1,462 @ $152.26 | $223K | −10.0% of holding | +0.1% | +17.3% | 13,184 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Williams Dantaya M | officer | Sale | 16,922 @ $137.62 | $2.3M | −50.6% of holding | +0.8% | +8.8% | 16,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Sale | 2,515 @ $127.57 | $321K | −20.9% of holding | +2.9% | +16.8% | 9,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Sale | 1,631 @ $127.49 | $208K | −11.9% of holding | +2.9% | +16.8% | 12,061 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Winnefeld James A Jr | director | Purchase | 200 @ $117.90 | $24K | +2.6% of holding | +2.6% | +23.9% | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-27 | Calio Christopher T. | director | Sale | 27,379 @ $130.36 | $3.6M | −25.1% of holding | +5.7% | +12.7% | 81,508 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Sale | 16,118 @ $130.35 | $2.1M | −21.3% of holding | +5.7% | +12.7% | 59,556 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Maharajh Ramsaran | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $126.83 | $1.3M | −25.2% of holding | +9.5% | +17.3% | 29,742 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Maharajh Ramsaran | officer | Sale | 9,431 @ $126.81 | $1.2M | −19.2% of holding | +9.5% | +17.3% | 39,742 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Brunk Troy D | officer | Sale | 2,872 @ $125.95 | $362K | −35.3% of holding | +11.5% | +17.6% | 5,272 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | HAYES GREGORY | director | Sale | 58,368 @ $125.36 | $7.3M | −10.0% of holding | +15.5% | +22.0% | 523,423 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | HAYES GREGORY | director | Sale | 43,300 @ $125.18 | $5.4M | −100.0% of holding | +15.5% | +22.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | DaSilva Kevin G | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $126.02 | $630K | −11.4% of holding | +15.5% | +22.0% | 38,708 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-18 | Eddy Shane G | officer | Sale | 15,700 @ $124.45 | $2.0M | −100.0% of holding | +17.1% | +20.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | DaSilva Kevin G | officer | Sale | 5,368 @ $124.20 | $667K | −10.9% of holding | +17.1% | +20.7% | 43,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Williams Dantaya M | officer | Sale | 14,031 @ $129.23 | $1.8M | −24.0% of holding | +4.6% | +16.6% | 44,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-31 | HAYES GREGORY | director | Sale | 96,287 @ $117.75 | $11.3M | −14.5% of holding | +3.3% | +1.0% | 566,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-31 | HAYES GREGORY | director | Sale | 38,600 @ $117.70 | $4.5M | −5.5% of holding | +3.3% | +1.0% | 663,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-30 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Sale | 4,322 @ $115.43 | $499K | −6.1% of holding | +0.9% | −0.8% | 66,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-29 | JASPER PHILIP J | officer | Sale | 12,232 @ $113.65 | $1.4M | −52.1% of holding | +1.9% | −0.7% | 11,251 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-29 | Calio Christopher T. | director | Sale | 4,235 @ $114.00 | $483K | −4.6% of holding | +1.9% | −0.7% | 88,509 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-29 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Sale | 3,791 @ $113.91 | $432K | −23.5% of holding | +1.9% | −0.7% | 12,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-29 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Sale | 2,943 @ $113.84 | $335K | −15.4% of holding | +1.9% | −0.7% | 16,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-26 | Williams Dantaya M | officer | Sale | 9,000 @ $114.83 | $1.0M | −18.8% of holding | +1.7% | +2.1% | 38,855 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-26 | Williams Dantaya M | officer | Sale | 8,570 @ $114.92 | $985K | −15.2% of holding | +1.7% | +2.1% | 47,855 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-26 | DaSilva Kevin G | officer | Sale | 8,166 @ $114.96 | $939K | −15.3% of holding | +1.7% | +2.1% | 45,208 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-26 | Eddy Shane G | officer | Sale | 6,741 @ $114.76 | $774K | −100.0% of holding | +1.7% | +2.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-26 | Maharajh Ramsaran | officer | Sale | 2,270 @ $114.71 | $260K | −11.9% of holding | +1.7% | +2.1% | 16,872 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-10 | Timm Stephen J. | director | Sale | 19,880 @ $105.72 | $2.1M | −11.8% of holding | −1.9% | +2.0% | 149,050 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-04-30 | Ortberg Robert Kelly | director | Sale | 10,295 @ $101.97 | $1.0M | −7.4% of holding | +0.6% | +5.7% | 129,120 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
245 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Maharajh Ramsaran | officer | Option exercise | 20,069 | 33,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Maharajh Ramsaran | officer | Disposition | 6,414 | 26,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Maharajh Ramsaran | officer | Option exercise | 20,069 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Brunk Troy D | officer | Option exercise | 12,600 | 23,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Brunk Troy D | officer | Disposition | 5,854 | 15,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Brunk Troy D | officer | Option exercise | 12,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | JASPER PHILIP J | officer | Award / grant | 20,860 | 33,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | ROGERS BRIAN C | director | Award / grant | 2,101 | 38,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Ramos Denise L | director | Award / grant | 1,959 | 29,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Reynolds Fredric | director | Award / grant | 1,346 | 24,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Caret Leanne G | director | Award / grant | 1,312 | 8,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Atkinson Tracy A | director | Award / grant | 1,295 | 16,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Oliver George | director | Award / grant | 1,261 | 17,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Pawlikowski Ellen M | director | Award / grant | 1,261 | 16,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Harris Bernard A Jr | director | Award / grant | 1,176 | 11,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Work Robert O | director | Award / grant | 1,176 | 18,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Calio Christopher T. | director | Option exercise | 31,199 | 165,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Calio Christopher T. | director | Disposition | 11,604 | 141,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 93,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Disposition | 3,697 | 95,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Option exercise | 9,394 | 102,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Disposition | 3,473 | 99,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Option exercise | 9,394 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Calio Christopher T. | director | Option exercise | 31,199 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Calio Christopher T. | director | Award / grant | 133,200 | 133,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Mitchill Neil G. JR | director | Award / grant | 47,600 | 47,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | JASPER PHILIP J | officer | Award / grant | 30,200 | 30,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Eddy Shane G | officer | Award / grant | 28,600 | 28,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Brunk Troy D | officer | Award / grant | 28,600 | 28,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Maharajh Ramsaran | officer | Award / grant | 25,400 | 25,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Williams Dantaya M | officer | Award / grant | 22,200 | 22,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Award / grant | 8,600 | 8,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | DaSilva Kevin G | officer | Award / grant | 3,100 | 3,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Award / grant | 1,375 | 17,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | DaSilva Kevin G | officer | Award / grant | 2,485 | 10,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Disposition | 6,230 | 19,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Option exercise | 10,118 | 21,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Option exercise | 4,200 | 25,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Johnson Amy L | officer | Option exercise | 10,118 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2026-01-16 | 2025-12-29 | $15–50K |
| Roger Williams | House | purchase | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-22 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2025-09-17 | 2025-08-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-14 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
| John Boozman | Senate | purchase | 2025-06-14 | 2025-05-30 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2025-05-16 | 2025-04-11 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Bruce Westerman | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-21 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.