Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.27 · now $6.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RSKD has typically landed between $4.92 and $7.52 — a range of −21.5% to +20.0% from the issuance price $6.27.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,268 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RSKD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.27 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.24 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.76–$6.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.92–$7.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,268 windows spanning 2021-07-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-04 | −58.6% | −59.2% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-03 | −58.2% | −58.2% | +2.5% |
| 2021-11-10 | −58.1% | −58.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-14 | +54.4% | −2.3% | +57.5% |
| 2022-07-13 | +54.0% | −4.5% | +54.0% |
| 2022-07-18 | +45.4% | −0.5% | +60.3% |
1,268 overlapping windows · 2021-07-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+2.5%
n=5
Feb
40%
+0.5%
n=5
Mar
40%
−4.2%
n=5
Apr
20%
−2.8%
n=5
May
80%
+7.3%
n=5
Jun
40%
−2.3%
n=5
Jul
40%
+0.3%
n=5
Aug
67%
+6.0%
n=6
Sep
0%
−12.4%
n=6
Oct
40%
−4.7%
n=5
Nov
80%
−2.9%
n=5
Dec
40%
−2.6%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Kumaraswami Ravi | officer | Sale | 65,000 @ $6.18 | $402K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,551,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 47,651 @ $6.18 | $295K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,311,623 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 46,780 @ $6.28 | $294K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,359,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Gal Eido | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $6.48 | $972K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,302,917 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $6.72 | $336K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,406,054 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $6.47 | $647K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,456,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Feldman Assaf | director | Sale | 43,904 @ $6.51 | $286K | −3.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,167,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Shauli Avi | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $6.44 | $193K | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 485,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 3,603 @ $6.27 | $23K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,196,080 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $6.29 | $629K | −7.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,199,683 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 167,200 @ $6.30 | $1.1M | −11.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,299,683 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 289,400 @ $6.12 | $1.8M | −16.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,466,883 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 145,500 @ $5.96 | $868K | −7.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,756,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 89,994 @ $5.94 | $535K | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,901,783 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 102,407 @ $5.92 | $606K | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,991,777 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 115,500 @ $5.89 | $681K | −5.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,094,184 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 157,200 @ $5.95 | $935K | −18.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 709,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 139,884 @ $6.11 | $854K | −13.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 866,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 161,927 @ $6.22 | $1.0M | −13.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,006,768 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Kumaraswami Ravi | officer | Sale | 65,000 @ $6.24 | $405K | −3.9% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,616,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 100 @ $6.43 | $643 | −0.0% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,168,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Feldman Assaf | director | Sale | 206,096 @ $6.54 | $1.3M | −14.5% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,211,275 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Sale | 80,000 @ $6.52 | $522K | −5.3% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,430,874 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Feldman Assaf | director | Sale | 450,000 @ $6.01 | $2.7M | −24.1% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,417,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Sale | 180,000 @ $5.95 | $1.1M | −10.6% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,510,874 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 5,586 @ $5.25 | $29K | −0.5% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,168,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 27,600 @ $5.27 | $145K | −2.3% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,174,381 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 7,909 @ $5.19 | $41K | −0.7% of holding | +16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,201,981 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 78,800 @ $5.11 | $403K | −6.1% of holding | +23.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,209,890 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Kumaraswami Ravi | officer | Sale | 65,000 @ $5.15 | $334K | −3.7% of holding | +22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,681,246 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 65,100 @ $5.13 | $334K | −4.8% of holding | +22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,288,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 36,400 @ $5.19 | $189K | −2.6% of holding | +19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,353,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 82,103 @ $5.21 | $428K | −5.6% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,390,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 24,328 @ $5.22 | $127K | −1.6% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,472,293 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 64,800 @ $5.22 | $338K | −4.2% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,496,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 64,349 @ $5.18 | $333K | −4.0% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,561,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 148,221 @ $5.27 | $781K | −8.4% of holding | −3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,625,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 154,436 @ $5.22 | $807K | −8.0% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,773,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Feldman Assaf | director | Sale | 32,588 @ $5.19 | $169K | −1.7% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,867,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Sale | 19,200 @ $5.20 | $100K | −1.1% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,690,874 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 265,549 @ $5.08 | $1.3M | −12.1% of holding | +0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,928,427 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Sale | 800 @ $5.20 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,778,942 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 435,900 @ $5.02 | $2.2M | −16.6% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,193,976 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Feldman Assaf | director | Sale | 230,512 @ $5.02 | $1.2M | −10.7% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,932,613 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $5.01 | $100K | −1.1% of holding | +3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,779,742 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 281,501 @ $5.02 | $1.4M | −9.7% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,629,876 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 220,600 @ $5.05 | $1.1M | −7.0% of holding | +8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,911,377 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 356,000 @ $5.02 | $1.8M | −10.2% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,131,977 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Kumaraswami Ravi | officer | Sale | 100 @ $5.00 | $500 | −0.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,865,113 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 124,085 @ $4.96 | $615K | −3.4% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,487,977 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Kumaraswami Ravi | officer | Sale | 33,399 @ $5.00 | $167K | −1.8% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,865,213 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 168,300 @ $4.89 | $824K | −4.5% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,612,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 150,200 @ $4.93 | $740K | −3.8% of holding | +0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,780,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 75,204 @ $4.92 | $370K | −1.9% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,930,562 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Kumaraswami Ravi | officer | Sale | 33,601 @ $5.00 | $168K | −1.7% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,898,612 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 101,600 @ $4.93 | $501K | −2.5% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,005,766 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 96,100 @ $4.94 | $474K | −2.3% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,107,366 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Kumaraswami Ravi | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $5.00 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,932,213 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 144,459 @ $4.96 | $716K | −3.2% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,320,466 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Shachar Erez | director | Sale | 117,000 @ $4.94 | $578K | −2.7% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,203,466 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 2,359,974 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 2,359,974 | 3,556,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 2,359,974 | 3,556,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 2,359,974 | 3,556,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 2,359,974 | 3,556,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 2,359,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 2,209,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 2,209,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 2,209,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 2,209,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Assia Ronen | director | Award / grant | 53,517 | 53,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Kumaraswami Ravi | officer | Withheld for tax | 118,867 | 1,746,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Withheld for tax | 68,868 | 1,710,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Gal Eido | director | Withheld for tax | 57,610 | 5,487,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Gal Eido | director | Withheld for tax | 34,390 | 5,452,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Feldman Assaf | director | Withheld for tax | 21,679 | 1,910,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Feldman Assaf | director | Withheld for tax | 10,975 | 1,899,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 500,000 | 3,859,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 500,000 | 4,887,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 500,000 | 4,887,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Gal Eido | director | Gift | 204,729 | 5,544,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Kishon Eyal | director | Other acquisition | 2,137,711 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 1,000,000 | 4,359,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 1,000,000 | 5,264,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Shachar Erez | director | Conversion | 1,000,000 | 5,264,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Kishon Eyal | director | Conversion | 1,428,474 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Kishon Eyal | director | Conversion | 1,428,474 | 2,137,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Kishon Eyal | director | Conversion | 1,428,474 | 2,137,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Haj-Yehia Samer | director | Award / grant | 75,922 | 75,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kumaraswami Ravi | officer | Withheld for tax | 118,866 | 1,995,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Withheld for tax | 67,643 | 1,819,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Gal Eido | director | Withheld for tax | 57,610 | 5,784,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Gal Eido | director | Withheld for tax | 34,390 | 5,749,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Feldman Assaf | director | Withheld for tax | 20,992 | 2,203,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Feldman Assaf | director | Withheld for tax | 7,999 | 2,195,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Option exercise | 26,021 | 1,874,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Option exercise | 12,937 | 1,887,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Option exercise | 26,021 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Dotcheva Aglika | officer | Option exercise | 12,937 | 68,738 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.