Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.89 · now $25.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RSI has typically landed between $19.48 and $32.89 — a range of −24.8% to +27.1% from the issuance price $25.89.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,586 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-04-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RSI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $25.89 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.61 (+2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.74–$29.47
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.48–$32.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,586 windows spanning 2020-04-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-28 | −48.2% | −48.2% | +1.4% |
| 2021-12-23 | −47.1% | −47.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-27 | −46.5% | −46.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-16 | +76.7% | +0.0% | +76.7% |
| 2020-11-17 | +75.2% | +0.0% | +75.2% |
| 2020-11-13 | +71.9% | +0.0% | +73.5% |
1,586 overlapping windows · 2020-04-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−3.6%
n=6
Feb
50%
−1.8%
n=6
Mar
50%
−6.1%
n=6
Apr
33%
+1.6%
n=6
May
29%
+2.5%
n=7
Jun
71%
+3.7%
n=7
Jul
71%
+8.2%
n=7
Aug
57%
+9.4%
n=7
Sep
71%
+3.7%
n=7
Oct
33%
−5.9%
n=6
Nov
67%
+12.9%
n=6
Dec
67%
+6.1%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Sauers Kyle | officer | Sale | 23,000 @ $26.56 | $611K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 606,526 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 55,555 @ $25.69 | $1.4M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 47,222 @ $25.69 | $1.2M | −11.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 374,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $25.68 | $514K | −11.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 157,874 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 55,556 @ $28.03 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 55,556 @ $28.02 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 47,222 @ $28.02 | $1.3M | −11.2% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Sauers Kyle | officer | Sale | 23,000 @ $26.65 | $613K | −3.5% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 629,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $28.03 | $561K | −10.1% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,874 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Sauers Kyle | officer | Sale | 23,000 @ $31.53 | $725K | −3.4% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 652,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 55,556 @ $31.21 | $1.7M | −100.0% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 47,222 @ $31.21 | $1.5M | −11.2% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $31.22 | $624K | −9.2% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 197,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | WIERBICKI PAUL | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $30.12 | $301K | −9.7% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Sauers Kyle | officer | Sale | 23,000 @ $25.44 | $585K | −3.5% of holding | +26.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 631,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 55,556 @ $25.58 | $1.4M | −100.0% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 47,222 @ $25.58 | $1.2M | −11.2% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $25.63 | $513K | −8.4% of holding | +24.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,874 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | BLUHM NEIL | director | Sale | 1,371,150 @ $24.96 | $34.2M | −100.0% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 53,250 @ $24.96 | $1.3M | −100.0% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 11,175 @ $24.96 | $279K | −4.5% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,874 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 11,175 @ $24.96 | $279K | −100.0% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | BLUHM NEIL | director | Sale | 9,141,000 @ $24.96 | $228.2M | −100.0% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 355,000 @ $24.96 | $8.9M | −100.0% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 74,500 @ $24.96 | $1.9M | −23.8% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 74,500 @ $24.96 | $1.9M | −100.0% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Sauers Kyle | officer | Sale | 23,000 @ $28.39 | $653K | −3.4% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 654,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 55,556 @ $28.13 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | −15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 47,223 @ $28.13 | $1.3M | −11.2% of holding | −15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,036 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $28.09 | $562K | −7.8% of holding | −15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,874 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-29 | GOLD JUDITH | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $27.58 | $1.4M | −100.0% of holding | −15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-29 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $27.44 | $1.4M | −100.0% of holding | −15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-29 | WIERBICKI PAUL | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $27.55 | $1.2M | −32.5% of holding | −15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,256 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-27 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $24.06 | $481K | −15.9% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,448 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | GOLD JUDITH | director | Sale | 48,286 @ $23.07 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 61,765 @ $22.60 | $1.4M | −14.2% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 374,036 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | WIERBICKI PAUL | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $23.00 | $345K | −9.8% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,256 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-08 | GOLD JUDITH | director | Sale | 1,714 @ $23.03 | $39K | −100.0% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Sauers Kyle | officer | Sale | 23,000 @ $22.62 | $520K | −3.3% of holding | +22.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 677,258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 90,482 @ $22.04 | $2.0M | −17.2% of holding | +19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 435,801 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $22.07 | $441K | −7.8% of holding | +19.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 237,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $22.02 | $440K | −13.8% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | WIERBICKI PAUL | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $22.00 | $330K | −8.9% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 153,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | WIERBICKI PAUL | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $21.05 | $316K | −8.2% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,256 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | YIH DANIEL W | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $20.14 | $1.0M | −27.5% of holding | +7.2% | +16.8% | 131,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 8,495 @ $20.22 | $172K | −100.0% of holding | +15.3% | +16.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 3,398 @ $20.22 | $69K | −1.3% of holding | +15.3% | +16.1% | 249,624 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 3,397 @ $20.22 | $69K | −2.3% of holding | +15.3% | +16.1% | 145,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Sauers Kyle | officer | Sale | 23,000 @ $19.46 | $448K | −3.5% of holding | +13.2% | +16.2% | 640,306 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 21,232 @ $20.07 | $426K | −71.4% of holding | +13.2% | +16.2% | 8,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 8,493 @ $20.07 | $170K | −3.2% of holding | +13.2% | +16.2% | 253,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 8,493 @ $20.07 | $170K | −5.4% of holding | +13.2% | +16.2% | 148,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 247,113 @ $19.83 | $4.9M | −35.2% of holding | +14.0% | +16.8% | 454,821 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 28,109 @ $19.88 | $559K | −9.7% of holding | +14.0% | +16.8% | 261,515 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 20,273 @ $20.01 | $406K | −40.5% of holding | +14.0% | +16.8% | 29,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 8,110 @ $20.01 | $162K | −4.9% of holding | +14.0% | +16.8% | 157,338 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 247,114 @ $16.82 | $4.2M | −26.0% of holding | +24.0% | +31.9% | 701,934 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 247,114 @ $17.61 | $4.4M | −20.7% of holding | +21.7% | +31.2% | 949,048 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $17.67 | $353K | −6.5% of holding | +15.4% | +47.2% | 289,624 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Sale | 55,556 @ $19.22 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | −9.5% | +65.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
184 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 55,555 | 55,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 47,222 | 5,089,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 55,555 | 426,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Disposition | 55,555 | 426,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 47,222 | 421,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Disposition | 47,222 | 5,089,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 55,556 | 481,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 47,222 | 421,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 55,556 | 55,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Disposition | 47,222 | 5,137,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Disposition | 55,556 | 481,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 47,222 | 5,137,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 55,556 | 55,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Disposition | 55,556 | 537,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 47,222 | 5,184,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 55,556 | 537,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Disposition | 47,222 | 5,184,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 47,222 | 421,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Sauers Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 46,728 | 675,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | WIERBICKI PAUL | director | Option exercise | 6,926 | 103,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | WIERBICKI PAUL | director | Option exercise | 3,074 | 96,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Sauers Kyle | officer | Gift | 2,460 | 628,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Sauers Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 46,728 | 146,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | WIERBICKI PAUL | director | Option exercise | 3,074 | 32,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | WIERBICKI PAUL | director | Option exercise | 6,926 | 13,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Markell Jack A. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,406 | 17,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Winter Thomas | director | Withheld for tax | 3,296 | 20,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 55,556 | 593,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 47,222 | 5,231,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Disposition | 55,556 | 593,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 55,556 | 55,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Disposition | 47,222 | 5,231,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 47,222 | 421,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Conversion | 11,175 | 764,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Disposition | 53,250 | 648,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 53,250 | 648,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | SCHWARTZ RICHARD TODD | director | Conversion | 53,250 | 53,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Conversion | 11,175 | 11,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Disposition | 11,175 | 764,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | STETZ MATTIAS | officer | Conversion | 11,175 | 249,049 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.