Issued 2026-09-16 at $219.80 · now $219.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RSG has typically landed between $204.39 and $237.33 — a range of −7.0% to +8.0% from the issuance price $219.80.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($219.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RSG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $219.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $219.8 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $222.69 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $215.08–$230.3
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $204.39–$237.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −40.6% | −40.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −36.6% | −36.6% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-09 | −35.4% | −35.4% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-01 | +34.4% | +0.0% | +34.4% |
| 2009-04-08 | +27.0% | +0.0% | +27.0% |
| 2009-04-03 | +26.8% | +0.0% | +26.8% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$66.7B
market cap
$6.97
EPS (TTM)
31.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$16.6B
'20'25
Net income$2.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr17.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.05
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$237.00
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$213.65
- Analyst target · range $223.00–$249.00$233.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$219.80
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.1%
n=19
Apr
79%
+3.1%
n=19
May
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
68%
+1.6%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.1%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.8%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.8%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.3%
n=18
Dec
67%
+0.6%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 176,547 @ $223.15 | $39.4M | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,053,259 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 135,482 @ $222.59 | $30.2M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,876,712 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,596 @ $221.52 | $1.7M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,741,230 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,185 @ $223.84 | $1.2M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 117,058,444 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 108,147 @ $221.57 | $24.0M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,585,781 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 97,992 @ $222.52 | $21.8M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,683,773 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 47,819 @ $223.44 | $10.7M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,731,592 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,042 @ $224.11 | $458K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,733,634 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 213,574 @ $221.13 | $47.2M | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,412,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 64,965 @ $222.38 | $14.4M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,477,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 32,765 @ $220.37 | $7.2M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,199,095 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 249,866 @ $221.82 | $55.4M | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,148,515 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 141,819 @ $220.77 | $31.3M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,898,649 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 17,815 @ $222.56 | $4.0M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 116,166,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 268,220 @ $222.92 | $59.8M | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,660,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 96,031 @ $223.81 | $21.5M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,756,042 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 788 @ $224.47 | $177K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,756,830 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 253,253 @ $224.90 | $57.0M | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,313,216 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 78,575 @ $225.35 | $17.7M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,391,791 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 22,720 @ $222.81 | $5.1M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,044,247 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,716 @ $223.58 | $3.5M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,059,963 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 144,179 @ $223.93 | $32.3M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 115,021,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 97,068 @ $223.35 | $21.7M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,877,348 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 63,286 @ $222.46 | $14.1M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,780,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 24,667 @ $221.19 | $5.5M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,716,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 105,105 @ $223.15 | $23.5M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,683,457 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 69,586 @ $222.22 | $15.5M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,578,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 21,239 @ $221.35 | $4.7M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,508,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,870 @ $223.83 | $2.0M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,692,327 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 155,944 @ $221.32 | $34.5M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,342,471 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 102,195 @ $222.30 | $22.7M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,444,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 41,687 @ $223.30 | $9.3M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,486,353 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,174 @ $224.02 | $263K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,487,527 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 124,008 @ $220.77 | $27.4M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,117,668 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 68,859 @ $222.12 | $15.3M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,186,527 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 58,533 @ $220.29 | $12.9M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,993,660 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 235,978 @ $219.41 | $51.8M | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,886,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 47,555 @ $220.05 | $10.5M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,934,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,067 @ $221.06 | $236K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,935,127 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 211,098 @ $221.43 | $46.7M | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,598,459 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 52,068 @ $222.18 | $11.6M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,650,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 12,334 @ $220.84 | $2.7M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,387,361 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 128,729 @ $222.04 | $28.6M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,335,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 101,653 @ $221.12 | $22.5M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,207,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 23,321 @ $223.04 | $5.2M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,359,253 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,774 @ $223.74 | $3.5M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,375,027 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 217,350 @ $222.84 | $48.4M | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,063,373 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 42,177 @ $223.73 | $9.4M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 113,105,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 42,112 @ $222.45 | $9.4M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,846,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 181,392 @ $220.38 | $40.0M | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,802,980 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,038 @ $219.59 | $2.0M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,621,588 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 931 @ $220.91 | $206K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,803,911 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 127,199 @ $219.92 | $28.0M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,530,824 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 78,026 @ $220.74 | $17.2M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,608,850 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,700 @ $221.78 | $821K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,612,550 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 68,569 @ $223.45 | $15.3M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,400,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 57,464 @ $222.66 | $12.8M | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,332,278 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 39,272 @ $221.41 | $8.7M | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,274,814 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,432 @ $220.82 | $979K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,235,542 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,778 @ $224.09 | $623K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,403,625 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
190 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Brummer Gregg | officer | Withheld for tax | 219 | 7,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Brummer Gregg | officer | Option exercise | 528 | 7,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Brummer Gregg | officer | Option exercise | 528 | 537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | Hodges Amanda | officer | Withheld for tax | 52 | 13,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | Hodges Amanda | officer | Option exercise | 124 | 13,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | Hodges Amanda | officer | Option exercise | 124 | 257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Reynolds Margaret | director | Option exercise | 680 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Reynolds Margaret | director | Option exercise | 680 | 717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bales Brian A | director | Award / grant | 194 | 67,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Vander Ark Jon | director | Award / grant | 130 | 45,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | LARSON MICHAEL | director | Award / grant | 116 | 40,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Kadre Manuel | director | Award / grant | 115 | 40,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bales Brian A | director | Award / grant | 114 | 39,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | DelGhiaccio Brian M | director | Award / grant | 91 | 31,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bales Brian A | director | Award / grant | 80 | 28,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | HANDLEY THOMAS W | director | Award / grant | 71 | 24,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Kirk Jennifer M | director | Award / grant | 71 | 24,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Volpe Sandra M | director | Award / grant | 66 | 23,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Ellingsen Catharine D | officer | Award / grant | 60 | 21,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Brummer Gregg | officer | Award / grant | 52 | 18,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Duffy Michael A | director | Award / grant | 29 | 10,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | DelGhiaccio Brian M | director | Award / grant | 24 | 8,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Ellingsen Catharine D | officer | Award / grant | 24 | 8,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Arambula Julia | officer | Award / grant | 22 | 7,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Richardson Larson | officer | Award / grant | 21 | 6,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Vaughn Kevin G. | officer | Award / grant | 17 | 5,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Rodriguez Courtney | officer | Award / grant | 13 | 4,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Hodges Amanda | officer | Award / grant | 13 | 4,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Reynolds Margaret | director | Award / grant | 13 | 4,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Weymouth Katharine | director | Award / grant | 11 | 3,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | LINEBARGER NORMAN THOMAS | director | Award / grant | 11 | 3,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | TYLER BRIAN S. | director | Award / grant | 11 | 3,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Snee James P | director | Award / grant | 11 | 3,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Arambula Julia | officer | Award / grant | 10 | 3,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bell Jennifer Lynn | officer | Award / grant | 6 | 2,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Richardson Larson | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 1,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Carlsen Elyse | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 1,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Craig Ian M. | director | Award / grant | 3 | 924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Richardson Larson | officer | Award / grant | 2 | 558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Carlsen Elyse | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 241 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $15–50K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2025-06-06 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-14 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.