RS · TickerCove

RSReliance Steel & Aluminum Co.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $394.30 · now $394.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RS has typically landed between $356.57 and $449.66 — a range of −9.6% to +14.0% from the issuance price $394.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($394.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$394.3 · 79% of range

$262.77 low$428.49 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.1%

typical move · IQR 10.8%

−9.6%worst (p90)+14.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

2 buys · 12 sells · 3 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $394.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $394.3 (+0.0%)
typical $402.54 (+2.1%)
middle 50% $381.33–$423.74
90% range $356.57–$449.66

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-26	−60.0%	−60.0%	+0.0%
2008-09-25	−55.9%	−55.9%	+0.0%
2008-09-24	−54.4%	−54.4%	+1.4%
3 best
2009-03-20	+59.1%	+0.0%	+59.1%
2009-03-17	+58.9%	+0.0%	+58.9%
2009-03-18	+55.9%	−0.9%	+55.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

61%

+2.1%

n=18

Feb

84%

+6.3%

n=19

Mar

68%

+3.5%

n=19

Apr

58%

+2.9%

n=19

May

58%

+0.3%

n=19

Jun

42%

−0.3%

n=19

Jul

68%

+0.8%

n=19

Aug

32%

−1.9%

n=19

Sep

42%

−2.2%

n=19

Oct

61%

+1.3%

n=18

Nov

78%

+4.1%

n=18

Dec

56%

+1.0%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-26	Colonias Karen Winifred	director	Sale	1,542 @ $390.13	$602K	−16.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	7,772	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-31	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Sale	2,200 @ $410.11	$902K	−13.1% of holding	+0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	14,640	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-28	Smith William A II	officer	Sale	1,391 @ $414.42	$576K	−6.7% of holding	+0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	19,394	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28	Smith William A II	officer	Sale	962 @ $413.90	$398K	−4.4% of holding	+0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	20,785	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-27	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Sale	1,822 @ $357.61	$652K	−9.0% of holding	+0.3%	not yet — horizon still open	18,518	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-27	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Sale	1,604 @ $358.64	$575K	−8.7% of holding	+0.3%	not yet — horizon still open	16,914	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-27	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Sale	74 @ $359.18	$27K	−0.4% of holding	+0.3%	not yet — horizon still open	16,840	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09	Smith William A II	officer	Sale	4,908 @ $297.23	$1.5M	−18.4% of holding	+5.9%	not yet — horizon still open	21,747	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09	Smith William A II	officer	Sale	1,707 @ $302.59	$517K	−6.0% of holding	+5.9%	not yet — horizon still open	26,655	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Sale	13,888 @ $321.39	$4.5M	−36.5% of holding	−2.6%	+10.9%	24,193	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Sale	10,132 @ $321.94	$3.3M	−41.9% of holding	−2.6%	+10.9%	14,061	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Sale	40 @ $322.80	$13K	−0.3% of holding	−2.6%	+10.9%	14,021	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01	Lewis Karla R	director	Sale	3,775 @ $283.29	$1.1M	−4.2% of holding	+1.6%	+28.9%	86,455	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01	Lewis Karla R	director	Sale	2,034 @ $283.88	$577K	−2.4% of holding	+1.6%	+28.9%	84,421	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Sale	1,695 @ $283.26	$480K	−9.9% of holding	+1.6%	+28.9%	15,392	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Sale	1,291 @ $283.84	$366K	−8.4% of holding	+1.6%	+28.9%	14,101	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Sale	80 @ $285.32	$23K	−0.6% of holding	+1.6%	+28.9%	14,021	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Lewis Karla R	director	Sale	12,114 @ $299.26	$3.6M	−10.0% of holding	+1.8%	−8.6%	109,252	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Lewis Karla R	director	Sale	11,317 @ $300.00	$3.4M	−10.4% of holding	+1.8%	−8.6%	97,935	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Lewis Karla R	director	Sale	4,790 @ $303.65	$1.5M	−5.0% of holding	+1.8%	−8.6%	91,200	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Lewis Karla R	director	Sale	1,135 @ $301.44	$342K	−1.2% of holding	+1.8%	−8.6%	96,800	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Lewis Karla R	director	Sale	970 @ $304.40	$295K	−1.1% of holding	+1.8%	−8.6%	90,230	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Lewis Karla R	director	Sale	810 @ $302.32	$245K	−0.8% of holding	+1.8%	−8.6%	95,990	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-20	Sznewajs John G	director	Award / grant	469	469	Form 4
2026-05-20	Stotlar Douglas	director	Award / grant	469	469	Form 4
2026-05-20	Baldwin Lisa	director	Award / grant	469	5,128	Form 4
2026-05-20	Kamsickas James Kevin	director	Award / grant	469	1,036	Form 4
2026-05-20	Seeger David W	director	Award / grant	469	2,924	Form 4
2026-05-20	Colonias Karen Winifred	director	Award / grant	469	469	Form 4
2026-05-20	DELLAQUILA FRANK J	director	Award / grant	469	2,924	Form 4
2026-05-20	McEvoy Robert Ambrose	director	Award / grant	469	23,283	Form 4
2026-03-05	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Award / grant	1,261	20,340	Form 4
2026-03-05	Smith William A II	officer	Award / grant	1,324	28,362	Form 4
2026-03-05	Lewis Karla R	director	Award / grant	4,539	111,354	Form 4
2026-03-05	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Award / grant	2,522	16,543	Form 4
2026-02-23	Smith William A II	officer	Award / grant	8,864	31,549	Form 4
2026-02-23	Smith William A II	officer	Withheld for tax	4,511	27,038	Form 4
2026-02-23	Lewis Karla R	director	Award / grant	45,591	130,012	Form 4
2026-02-23	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Award / grant	8,864	23,590	Form 4
2026-02-23	Lewis Karla R	director	Withheld for tax	23,197	106,815	Form 4
2026-02-23	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Withheld for tax	4,511	19,079	Form 4
2026-02-23	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Award / grant	24,060	38,081	Form 4
2025-12-01	Smith William A II	officer	Withheld for tax	574	22,685	Form 4
2025-12-01	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Withheld for tax	574	14,726	Form 4
2025-05-21	Seeger David W	director	Award / grant	567	2,455	Form 4
2025-05-21	Stotlar Douglas	director	Award / grant	567	9,314	Form 4
2025-05-21	Baldwin Lisa	director	Award / grant	567	4,659	Form 4
2025-05-21	DELLAQUILA FRANK J	director	Award / grant	567	2,455	Form 4
2025-05-21	Colonias Karen Winifred	director	Award / grant	567	567	Form 4
2025-05-21	Kamsickas James Kevin	director	Award / grant	567	567	Form 4
2025-05-21	McEvoy Robert Ambrose	director	Award / grant	567	22,814	Form 4
2025-02-24	Smith William A II	officer	Withheld for tax	5,826	23,259	Form 4
2025-02-24	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Withheld for tax	5,826	15,300	Form 4
2025-02-24	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	5,702	17,087	Form 4
2025-02-24	Smith William A II	officer	Award / grant	1,491	29,085	Form 4
2025-02-24	Smith William A II	officer	Award / grant	11,472	27,594	Form 4
2025-02-24	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Award / grant	2,840	22,789	Form 4
2025-02-24	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Award / grant	1,136	9,654	Form 4
2025-02-24	Lewis Karla R	director	Award / grant	5,113	121,366	Form 4
2025-02-24	Koch Stephen Paul	officer	Award / grant	13,110	19,949	Form 4
2025-02-24	Lewis Karla R	director	Award / grant	31,136	116,253	Form 4
2025-02-24	Ajemyan Arthur	officer	Award / grant	11,472	21,126	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Lisa Mcclain	House	sale	2025-10-22	2025-09-25	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	purchase	2025-09-12	2025-08-04	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	purchase	2025-08-13	2025-06-17	$1–15K
Julie Johnson	House	sale	2025-05-14	2025-04-07	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-06-14	2022-05-23	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-06-14	2022-05-24	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-06-14	2022-05-23	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-06-14	2022-05-20	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-06-14	2022-05-24	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-06-14	2022-05-20	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-05-25	2022-04-01	$50–100K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-05-25	2022-04-01	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-03-17	2022-02-23	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2022-03-17	2022-02-23	$100–250K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i