RRGB · TickerCove

RRGBRed Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.31 · now $7.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RRGB has typically landed between $5.14 and $10.13 — a range of −29.7% to +38.5% from the issuance price $7.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.31 · 59% of range

$2.59 low$10.59 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.0%

typical move · IQR 28.7%

−29.7%worst (p90)+38.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RRGB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.31 (+0.0%)
typical $7.16 (-2.0%)
middle 50% $6.11–$8.21
90% range $5.14–$10.13

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−85.3%	−85.3%	+5.6%
2020-02-14	−83.6%	−83.6%	+5.5%
2020-02-13	−83.0%	−83.0%	+4.7%
3 best
2025-05-06	+151.7%	+0.0%	+151.7%
2025-05-07	+135.3%	+0.0%	+143.4%
2020-03-18	+126.4%	+0.0%	+143.4%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

+2.5%

n=20

Feb

65%

+5.9%

n=20

Mar

60%

+3.0%

n=20

Apr

55%

+4.3%

n=20

May

45%

−1.0%

n=20

Jun

35%

+2.9%

n=20

Jul

45%

−2.2%

n=20

Aug

45%

−3.5%

n=20

Sep

55%

+0.8%

n=20

Oct

50%

−3.8%

n=20

Nov

40%

−0.5%

n=20

Dec

65%

+3.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-06	Griffith Jesse	officer	Sale	1,008 @ $3.03	$3K	−2.6% of holding	−0.9%	not yet — horizon still open	37,818	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-23	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Sale	2,913 @ $3.12	$9K	−2.7% of holding	+23.5%	not yet — horizon still open	106,888	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23	Griffith Jesse	officer	Sale	839 @ $3.12	$3K	−2.0% of holding	+23.5%	not yet — horizon still open	42,110	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Sale	4,037 @ $3.21	$13K	−3.5% of holding	+8.5%	+107.9%	109,801	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	Griffith Jesse	officer	Sale	1,402 @ $3.21	$5K	−3.2% of holding	+8.5%	+107.9%	42,949	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-09	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Sale	2,800 @ $3.88	$11K	−2.5% of holding	+0.6%	+10.5%	110,677	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17	Wilson Joshua Todd	officer	Sale	6,015 @ $4.15	$25K	−3.0% of holding	−1.4%	+1.5%	195,487	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22	Martin Christopher Ross	director	Purchase	34,649 @ $6.29	$218K	+2.1% of holding	+10.6%	−47.2%	1,667,906	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-21	Martin Christopher Ross	director	Purchase	18,351 @ $6.14	$113K	+1.1% of holding	+6.8%	−48.3%	1,633,257	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-20	Ackil Anthony S	director	Purchase	14,910 @ $5.03	$75K	+16.8% of holding	+32.6%	−32.1%	103,802	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-24	Hart Gerard Johan	director	Sale	8,627 @ $4.16	$36K	−1.5% of holding	−29.9%	+48.5%	556,225	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-24	Wilson Joshua Todd	officer	Sale	932 @ $4.16	$4K	−0.9% of holding	−29.9%	+48.5%	107,214	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-24	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Sale	919 @ $4.16	$4K	−1.6% of holding	−29.9%	+48.5%	55,934	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-21	Hart Gerard Johan	director	Sale	10,418 @ $4.16	$43K	−1.8% of holding	−27.5%	+53.1%	564,852	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-21	Wilson Joshua Todd	officer	Sale	1,125 @ $4.16	$5K	−1.0% of holding	−27.5%	+53.1%	108,146	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-21	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Sale	1,108 @ $4.16	$5K	−1.9% of holding	−27.5%	+53.1%	56,853	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-17	Hart Gerard Johan	director	Sale	11,467 @ $4.39	$50K	−2.0% of holding	−34.2%	+35.9%	575,270	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17	Wilson Joshua Todd	officer	Sale	1,714 @ $4.39	$8K	−1.5% of holding	−34.2%	+35.9%	109,271	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Sale	1,295 @ $4.39	$6K	−2.2% of holding	−34.2%	+35.9%	57,961	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17	Spuler Meghan	officer	Sale	777 @ $4.39	$3K	−4.0% of holding	−34.2%	+35.9%	18,706	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17	Arnell Brenden Robyn	officer	Sale	523 @ $4.39	$2K	−5.7% of holding	−34.2%	+35.9%	8,699	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-14	Hart Gerard Johan	director	Sale	11,997 @ $4.46	$54K	−2.0% of holding	−32.1%	+32.7%	586,737	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Wilson Joshua Todd	officer	Sale	1,793 @ $4.46	$8K	−1.6% of holding	−32.1%	+32.7%	110,985	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Sale	1,354 @ $4.46	$6K	−2.2% of holding	−32.1%	+32.7%	59,256	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Spuler Meghan	officer	Sale	812 @ $4.46	$4K	−4.0% of holding	−32.1%	+32.7%	19,483	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14	Arnell Brenden Robyn	officer	Sale	547 @ $4.46	$2K	−5.6% of holding	−32.1%	+32.7%	9,222	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Hudler Scott	officer	Award / grant	11,160	11,160	Form 4
2026-08-05	Kappitt Michael	director	Award / grant	13,295	13,295	Form 4
2026-05-15	Graff Mark E	officer	Award / grant	79,155	79,155	Form 4
2026-05-14	Regan Nicole Miller	director	Award / grant	31,662	96,779	Form 4
2026-05-14	Martin Christopher Ross	director	Award / grant	31,662	83,608	Form 4
2026-05-14	Pappas James C	director	Award / grant	31,662	83,608	Form 4
2026-05-14	Varnado Anddria	director	Award / grant	31,662	112,024	Form 4
2026-05-14	Ackil Anthony S	director	Award / grant	31,662	135,464	Form 4
2026-05-14	LUMPKIN STEVE	director	Award / grant	31,662	108,290	Form 4
2026-03-24	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Withheld for tax	8,391	98,497	Form 4
2026-03-24	Griffith Jesse	officer	Withheld for tax	3,284	38,826	Form 4
2026-03-23	Griffith Jesse	officer	Award / grant	38,636	38,636	Form 4
2026-03-23	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Award / grant	69,350	69,350	Form 4
2026-03-23	PACE DAVID	director	Award / grant	250,000	571,698	Form 4
2026-03-23	PACE DAVID	director	Award / grant	250,000	250,000	Form 4
2026-03-23	Kassem Humera	officer	Award / grant	34,090	34,090	Form 4
2026-02-19	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,023	113,838	Form 4
2026-02-19	Griffith Jesse	officer	Withheld for tax	1,027	44,351	Form 4
2026-02-17	Griffith Jesse	officer	Award / grant	2,038	45,378	Form 4
2026-02-17	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Award / grant	6,184	116,861	Form 4
2025-09-22	Kassem Humera	officer	Award / grant	7,680	7,680	Form 4
2025-09-22	Kassem Humera	officer	Award / grant	23,407	31,087	Form 4
2025-05-22	LUMPKIN STEVE	director	Award / grant	41,379	76,628	Form 4
2025-05-22	Ackil Anthony S	director	Award / grant	41,379	88,892	Form 4
2025-05-22	Conforti Thomas G.	director	Award / grant	41,379	90,385	Form 4
2025-05-22	Martin Christopher Ross	director	Award / grant	41,379	51,946	Form 4
2025-05-22	Regan Nicole Miller	director	Award / grant	41,379	65,117	Form 4
2025-05-22	Pappas James C	director	Award / grant	41,379	51,946	Form 4
2025-05-22	Varnado Anddria	director	Award / grant	41,379	80,362	Form 4
2025-05-22	Page Allison A.	director	Award / grant	41,379	94,526	Form 4
2025-04-24	PACE DAVID	director	Award / grant	250,000	321,698	Form 4
2025-03-24	Arnell Brenden Robyn	officer	Award / grant	23,275	31,974	Form 4
2025-03-24	Hart Gerard Johan	director	Award / grant	431,034	987,259	Form 4
2025-03-24	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Award / grant	57,543	113,477	Form 4
2025-03-24	Spuler Meghan	officer	Award / grant	28,286	46,992	Form 4
2025-03-24	Wilson Joshua Todd	officer	Award / grant	94,288	201,502	Form 4
2024-12-18	Spuler Meghan	officer	Disposition	402	20,295	Form 4
2024-12-10	Martin Christopher Ross	director	Award / grant	10,567	10,567	Form 4
2024-12-10	Pappas James C	director	Award / grant	10,567	10,567	Form 4
2024-12-08	Mussetter Sarah A.	officer	Disposition	1,824	60,610	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i