Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.85 · now $38.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RRC has typically landed between $33.08 and $46.53 — a range of −14.8% to +19.8% from the issuance price $38.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RRC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $38.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.31 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.51–$42.11
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.08–$46.53
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2018-11-21 | −41.4% | −41.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-01-10 | −39.9% | −39.9% | +0.0% |
| 2018-11-19 | −39.1% | −39.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-01 | +167.0% | +0.0% | +170.6% |
| 2020-03-30 | +163.4% | −2.7% | +163.4% |
| 2020-03-27 | +159.1% | +0.0% | +159.1% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Spiller Reginal | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $40.00 | $140K | −20.7% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Cline Brenda A | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $44.40 | $311K | −19.6% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,668 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Degner Dennis | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $46.21 | $693K | −66.5% of holding | −19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,572 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | McDowell Erin W | officer | Sale | 8,250 @ $48.00 | $396K | −8.9% of holding | −22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,451 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | DORMAN MARGARET K | director | Sale | 2,680 @ $43.24 | $116K | −2.3% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | DORMAN MARGARET K | director | Sale | 9,820 @ $43.42 | $426K | −7.8% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 116,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Spiller Reginal | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $41.84 | $84K | −14.6% of holding | +4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,663 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Scucchi Mark | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $41.66 | $1.2M | −4.3% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 660,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Kavanaugh Ashley | officer | Sale | 18,540 @ $42.00 | $779K | −100.0% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Kavanaugh Ashley | officer | Sale | 836 @ $41.88 | $35K | −48.5% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 887 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Spiller Reginal | director | Sale | 4,200 @ $40.16 | $169K | −23.5% of holding | −0.8% | −17.2% | 13,663 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Degner Dennis | officer | Sale | 35,850 @ $40.42 | $1.4M | −38.0% of holding | +1.0% | −21.4% | 58,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Maxwell Greg G | director | Sale | 10,374 @ $40.62 | $421K | −58.2% of holding | −4.1% | −20.9% | 7,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | McDowell Erin W | officer | Sale | 9,568 @ $40.62 | $389K | −40.9% of holding | −4.1% | −20.9% | 13,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Kavanaugh Ashley | officer | Sale | 12,880 @ $39.00 | $502K | −88.2% of holding | −2.3% | −20.4% | 1,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | FUNK JAMES M | director | Sale | 13,582 @ $35.03 | $476K | −20.0% of holding | +0.6% | −15.3% | 54,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Scucchi Mark | officer | Sale | 59,994 @ $40.15 | $2.4M | −8.0% of holding | −10.2% | −32.3% | 690,094 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-20 | Scucchi Mark | officer | Sale | 45,142 @ $40.27 | $1.8M | −100.0% of holding | −10.2% | −32.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Degner Dennis | officer | Other acquisition | 7,572 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Degner Dennis | officer | Other acquisition | 7,572 | 843,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | McDowell Erin W | officer | Other acquisition | 1,484 | 85,935 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | McDowell Erin W | officer | Other acquisition | 1,484 | 4,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Maxwell Greg G | director | Other acquisition | 7,182 | 116,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Maxwell Greg G | director | Other acquisition | 7,182 | 6,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | DORMAN MARGARET K | director | Other acquisition | 5,258 | 4,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kendall Christian S | director | Other acquisition | 5,258 | 4,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kendall Christian S | director | Other acquisition | 5,258 | 31,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Griffie Charles G. | director | Other acquisition | 5,258 | 4,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Griffie Charles G. | director | Other acquisition | 5,258 | 16,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Spiller Reginal | director | Other acquisition | 5,258 | 4,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Spiller Reginal | director | Other acquisition | 5,258 | 16,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | DORMAN MARGARET K | director | Other acquisition | 5,258 | 119,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Cline Brenda A | director | Other acquisition | 5,258 | 4,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Cline Brenda A | director | Other acquisition | 5,258 | 33,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Maxwell Greg G | director | Award / grant | 6,784 | 13,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Kendall Christian S | director | Award / grant | 4,967 | 10,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Griffie Charles G. | director | Award / grant | 4,967 | 10,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Spiller Reginal | director | Award / grant | 4,967 | 10,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | DORMAN MARGARET K | director | Award / grant | 4,967 | 10,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cline Brenda A | director | Award / grant | 4,967 | 10,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Degner Dennis | officer | Award / grant | 76,334 | 835,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Scucchi Mark | officer | Award / grant | 50,563 | 731,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Degner Dennis | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,656 | 230,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scucchi Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,995 | 123,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | McDowell Erin W | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,295 | 81,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scucchi Mark | officer | Other acquisition | 26,194 | 681,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Degner Dennis | officer | Other acquisition | 39,543 | 190,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Degner Dennis | officer | Other acquisition | 39,543 | 759,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | McDowell Erin W | officer | Other acquisition | 13,376 | 68,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | McDowell Erin W | officer | Other acquisition | 13,376 | 92,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scucchi Mark | officer | Other acquisition | 26,194 | 97,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Degner Dennis | officer | Other acquisition | 39,543 | 190,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Degner Dennis | officer | Other acquisition | 39,543 | 759,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | McDowell Erin W | officer | Other acquisition | 13,376 | 68,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | McDowell Erin W | officer | Other acquisition | 13,376 | 92,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Scucchi Mark | officer | Gift | 5,000 | 655,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Kendall Christian S | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 26,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | McDowell Erin W | officer | Award / grant | 1,277 | 5,509 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Babin | House | sale | 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-07-22 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2023-11-16 | 2023-10-16 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | purchase | 2023-05-11 | 2023-04-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2020-05-13 | 2020-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2019-10-15 | 2019-08-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2018-11-09 | 2018-10-25 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2017-02-17 | 2017-02-06 | $50–100K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2017-02-17 | 2017-01-09 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2017-01-31 | 2016-12-02 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2017-01-31 | 2016-12-02 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2016-06-16 | 2016-06-06 | $100–250K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2016-06-16 | 2016-05-18 | $100–250K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.