RRBIRed River Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $101.75 · now $101.75 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RRBI has typically landed between $92.87 and $115.69 — a range of −8.7% to +13.7% from the issuance price $101.75.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,832 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($101.75) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RRBI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $101.75 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$92.87worst · -8.7%$115.69best · +13.7%
  • now $101.75 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $102.45 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $98.17–$106.72
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $92.87–$115.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,832 windows spanning 2019-05-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−45.5%−45.5%+0.1%
2020-03-03−32.9%−42.3%+0.0%
2020-02-28−32.1%−42.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-20+30.3%+0.0%+32.2%
2020-04-17+28.2%−3.0%+28.2%
2026-01-07+27.5%+0.0%+27.5%

1,832 overlapping windows · 2019-05-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
29%
−0.5%
n=7
Feb
43%
+1.8%
n=7
Mar
57%
−3.9%
n=7
Apr
57%
−0.9%
n=7
May
71%
+1.8%
n=7
Jun
75%
+2.2%
n=8
Jul
63%
+2.4%
n=8
Aug
25%
−1.1%
n=8
Sep
25%
−0.8%
n=8
Oct
100%
+4.4%
n=7
Nov
86%
+6.8%
n=7
Dec
57%
+1.8%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$103$612026-08-10: 3 insider purchases, $112K — Price Teddy Ray …2026-02-25: 1 insider purchase, $6K — Price Teddy Ray2026-02-04: 3 insider purchases, $67K — Price Teddy Ray …2025-11-06: 3 insider purchases, $69K — Price Teddy Ray …2025-08: 4 open-market purchases, $238K2025-11: 3 open-market purchases, $69K2026-02: 4 open-market purchases, $73K2026-08: 3 open-market purchases, $112K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Price Teddy Ray — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed same daydirector Price Teddy Ray — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed same daydirector Price Teddy Ray — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed same daydirector Price Teddy Ray — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed same daydirector Price Teddy Ray — Purchase on 2026-02-04, filed same daydirector Price Teddy Ray — Purchase on 2026-02-04, filed same daydirector Price Teddy Ray — Purchase on 2026-02-04, filed same daydirector Price Teddy Ray — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Price Teddy Ray — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Price Teddy Ray — Purchase on 2025-11-06, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase940 @ $99.89$94K+0.2% of holding+2.4%not yet — horizon still open377,872Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-10Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase164 @ $99.89$16K+0.2% of holding+2.4%not yet — horizon still open65,988Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-10Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase15 @ $101.31$2K+0.2% of holding+2.4%not yet — horizon still open6,139Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-25Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase64 @ $90.37$6K+0.0% of holding+7.2%+1.5%375,852Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-04Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase630 @ $90.39$57K+0.2% of holding−1.9%−0.4%375,788Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-04Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase107 @ $89.00$10K+0.2% of holding−1.9%−0.4%65,635Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-04Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase10 @ $85.32$853+0.2% of holding−1.9%−0.4%6,108Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase886 @ $65.79$58K+0.2% of holding+6.8%+25.8%374,960Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-06Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase147 @ $65.60$10K+0.2% of holding+6.8%+25.8%65,528Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-06Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase13 @ $65.77$855+0.2% of holding+6.8%+25.8%6,098Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase3,500 @ $60.43$212K+0.9% of holding+5.4%+39.1%374,074Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase300 @ $58.72$18K+0.1% of holding+5.4%+39.1%370,574Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase131 @ $59.20$8K+0.2% of holding+5.4%+39.1%65,381Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase12 @ $59.18$710+0.2% of holding+5.4%+39.1%6,085Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase779 @ $53.87$42K+0.2% of holding−4.0%−3.8%370,274Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase144 @ $53.88$8K+0.2% of holding−4.0%−3.8%65,250Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase3 @ $53.77$161+0.0% of holding−4.0%−3.8%6,073Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase549 @ $57.53$32K+0.1% of holding−2.9%−0.9%369,495Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase101 @ $57.61$6K+0.2% of holding−2.9%−0.9%65,106Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Price Teddy RaydirectorPurchase9 @ $57.67$519+0.1% of holding−2.9%−0.9%6,070Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

21 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-01Salazar Tammi R.officerAward / grant8004,800Form 4
2026-04-01Carriere Isabel V.officerAward / grant80044,559Form 4
2026-04-01Chatelain Ronald BlakedirectorAward / grant600163,096Form 4
2026-04-01Salazar Bryon C.officerAward / grant80043,070Form 4
2026-04-01Salazar Bryon C.officerAward / grant8004,800Form 4
2026-04-01Salazar Tammi R.officerAward / grant80043,070Form 4
2026-03-11Salazar Tammi R.officerGift25542,270Form 4
2026-03-11Salazar Bryon C.officerGift25542,270Form 4
2026-01-30Moreau Anna BrasherdirectorAward / grant1982,168Form 4
2026-01-30Price Teddy RaydirectorAward / grant198375,158Form 4
2026-01-30Ashbrook Michael ScottdirectorAward / grant18149,969Form 4
2025-04-01Salazar Bryon C.officerAward / grant1,0004,600Form 4
2025-04-01Carriere Isabel V.officerAward / grant1,00043,759Form 4
2025-04-01Chatelain Ronald BlakedirectorAward / grant500162,496Form 4
2025-04-01Salazar Bryon C.officerAward / grant1,00041,925Form 4
2025-04-01Salazar Tammi R.officerAward / grant1,00041,925Form 4
2025-04-01Salazar Tammi R.officerAward / grant1,0004,600Form 4
2025-01-31Moreau Anna BrasherdirectorAward / grant2691,970Form 4
2025-01-31Price Teddy RaydirectorAward / grant242368,946Form 4
2025-01-31Ashbrook Michael ScottdirectorAward / grant24249,788Form 4
2025-01-31BROWN MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant2413,241Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.