Issued 2026-09-17 at $11.87 · now $11.87 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, RPT has typically landed between $9.84 and $13.57 — a range of −17.1% to +14.3% from the issuance price $11.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,004 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($11.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RPT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $11.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.68 (-1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.99–$12.36
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.84–$13.57
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −73.1% | −73.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-23 | −72.2% | −72.2% | +0.4% |
| 2008-10-22 | −69.2% | −69.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-20 | +111.0% | +0.0% | +122.7% |
| 2009-03-11 | +107.0% | +0.0% | +107.0% |
| 2009-03-18 | +102.3% | −9.2% | +102.3% |
5,004 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-04 | Rithm Capital Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 400,000 @ $25.00 | $10.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −10.7% | −29.5% | 400,000 | Form 4 · filed 17 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
5 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Rithm Capital Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 137,383 | 427,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Rithm Capital Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 110,794 | 290,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Rithm Capital Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 105,687 | 179,317 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | Friedman Paul M | director | Award / grant | 7,708 | 53,914 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-04 | Rithm Capital Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 18,550 | 2,856,194 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.