Issued 2026-09-16 at $58.47 · now $58.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RPRX has typically landed between $53.45 and $64.83 — a range of −8.6% to +10.9% from the issuance price $58.47.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,550 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($58.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where RPRX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $58.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $58.47 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $58.96 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $56.7–$61.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $53.45–$64.83
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,550 windows spanning 2020-06-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-06-25 | −17.1% | −19.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-06-24 | −16.6% | −16.6% | +3.7% |
| 2020-06-22 | −16.0% | −17.7% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-12-24 | +26.6% | +0.0% | +26.6% |
| 2024-12-19 | +26.1% | +0.0% | +27.5% |
| 2024-12-26 | +25.8% | −0.3% | +25.8% |
1,550 overlapping windows · 2020-06-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+4.4%
n=6
Feb
50%
+2.7%
n=6
Mar
50%
−1.7%
n=6
Apr
67%
+1.5%
n=6
May
33%
−0.9%
n=6
Jun
67%
+0.8%
n=6
Jul
71%
+0.1%
n=7
Aug
43%
−0.4%
n=7
Sep
14%
−3.8%
n=7
Oct
50%
+0.5%
n=6
Nov
83%
+5.0%
n=6
Dec
50%
+0.6%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Hite Christopher | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $59.97 | $6.0M | −21.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 370,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 9,230 @ $58.59 | $541K | −83.9% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,772 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 1,772 @ $59.14 | $105K | −100.0% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 9,099 @ $55.88 | $508K | −100.0% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Hite Christopher | director | Sale | 97,446 @ $56.50 | $5.5M | −17.4% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,953 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Hite Christopher | director | Sale | 29,400 @ $56.44 | $1.7M | −42.0% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Hite Christopher | director | Sale | 2,554 @ $57.10 | $146K | −0.6% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 459,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Hite Christopher | director | Sale | 600 @ $57.09 | $34K | −1.5% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 9,098 @ $55.18 | $502K | −50.0% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,099 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Hite Christopher | director | Sale | 117,592 @ $54.47 | $6.4M | −17.4% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 559,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Hite Christopher | director | Sale | 32,408 @ $54.11 | $1.8M | −4.6% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 676,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 64,399 @ $53.98 | $3.5M | −100.0% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 13,684 @ $52.75 | $722K | −42.9% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,197 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 13,684 @ $53.06 | $726K | −30.0% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,881 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Norden Gregory | director | Sale | 3,045 @ $53.00 | $161K | −1.6% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 32,916 @ $49.78 | $1.6M | −100.0% of holding | +4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 1,875 @ $49.78 | $93K | −4.5% of holding | +4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 32,916 @ $48.33 | $1.6M | −50.0% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,916 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 1,875 @ $48.33 | $91K | −4.3% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 32,916 @ $45.53 | $1.5M | −33.3% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 1,875 @ $45.53 | $85K | −4.1% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 22,487 @ $46.67 | $1.0M | −17.1% of holding | +6.0% | +17.6% | 109,177 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 10,429 @ $47.01 | $490K | −9.6% of holding | +6.0% | +17.6% | 98,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 1,292 @ $46.67 | $60K | −2.7% of holding | +6.0% | +17.6% | 46,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 583 @ $47.01 | $27K | −1.3% of holding | +6.0% | +17.6% | 45,761 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 32,916 @ $45.32 | $1.5M | −20.0% of holding | +4.2% | +23.0% | 131,664 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 1,875 @ $45.32 | $85K | −3.8% of holding | +4.2% | +23.0% | 47,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 19,076 @ $43.29 | $826K | −10.4% of holding | +6.5% | +19.8% | 164,580 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 1,087 @ $43.29 | $47K | −4.5% of holding | +6.5% | +19.8% | 22,885 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 108,759 @ $42.84 | $4.7M | −37.2% of holding | +8.1% | +23.5% | 183,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 6,195 @ $42.84 | $265K | −20.5% of holding | +8.1% | +23.5% | 23,972 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 102,581 @ $42.08 | $4.3M | −26.0% of holding | +14.0% | +25.5% | 292,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 5,843 @ $42.08 | $246K | −16.2% of holding | +14.0% | +25.5% | 30,167 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $41.09 | $822K | −100.0% of holding | +16.2% | +28.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $40.26 | $805K | −50.0% of holding | +13.2% | +39.0% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 65,832 @ $39.35 | $2.6M | −14.3% of holding | +14.4% | +40.8% | 394,996 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 3,750 @ $39.35 | $148K | −9.4% of holding | +14.4% | +40.8% | 36,010 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $39.52 | $790K | −33.3% of holding | +15.4% | +40.4% | 40,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $40.78 | $816K | −25.0% of holding | +10.3% | +31.0% | 60,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 65,832 @ $38.42 | $2.5M | −12.5% of holding | +9.6% | +40.1% | 460,828 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $38.48 | $770K | −20.0% of holding | +9.6% | +40.1% | 80,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 3,750 @ $38.42 | $144K | −8.6% of holding | +9.6% | +40.1% | 39,760 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $39.32 | $786K | −16.7% of holding | +2.3% | +35.6% | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $38.38 | $768K | −14.3% of holding | +2.7% | +33.7% | 120,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Lloyd George W. | officer | Sale | 30,654 @ $38.50 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | +1.7% | +36.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Lloyd George W. | officer | Sale | 79,346 @ $38.57 | $3.1M | −72.1% of holding | +0.8% | +29.4% | 30,654 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $38.32 | $766K | −12.5% of holding | +0.9% | +28.4% | 140,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 65,832 @ $38.36 | $2.5M | −11.1% of holding | +1.1% | +31.3% | 526,660 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 3,750 @ $38.36 | $144K | −7.9% of holding | +1.1% | +31.3% | 43,510 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 23,334 @ $39.15 | $914K | −12.7% of holding | +3.3% | +33.3% | 160,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 18,242 @ $39.15 | $714K | −71.1% of holding | +3.3% | +33.3% | 7,398 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Lloyd George W. | officer | Sale | 110,000 @ $39.77 | $4.4M | −50.0% of holding | −0.7% | +34.0% | 110,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 65,832 @ $39.87 | $2.6M | −10.0% of holding | −3.7% | +27.6% | 592,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 23,333 @ $39.93 | $932K | −11.3% of holding | −3.7% | +27.6% | 183,334 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Urist Marshall | officer | Sale | 18,242 @ $39.90 | $728K | −41.6% of holding | −3.7% | +27.6% | 25,640 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 3,750 @ $39.87 | $149K | −7.4% of holding | −3.7% | +27.6% | 47,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 55,146 @ $38.67 | $2.1M | −7.6% of holding | −4.8% | +24.9% | 669,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 10,686 @ $37.96 | $406K | −1.6% of holding | −4.8% | +24.9% | 658,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 3,126 @ $38.67 | $121K | −5.7% of holding | −4.8% | +24.9% | 51,634 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Sale | 624 @ $37.96 | $24K | −1.2% of holding | −4.8% | +24.9% | 51,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Hite Christopher | director | Gift | 16,800 | 23,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Legorreta Pablo G. | director | Gift | 30,000 | 662,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Gift | 18,500 | 1,788,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Urist Marshall | officer | Gift | 3,000 | 244,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Legorreta Pablo G. | director | Award / grant | 65,216 | 1,307,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Award / grant | 11,002 | 11,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Urist Marshall | officer | Award / grant | 8,252 | 8,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Hite Christopher | director | Award / grant | 11,002 | 470,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Bassler Bonnie L | director | Award / grant | 689 | 79,181 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bassler Bonnie L | director | Award / grant | 4,545 | 78,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Coric Vlad | director | Award / grant | 4,545 | 15,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Engelbert Catherine M. | director | Award / grant | 4,545 | 55,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | HODGSON DAVID C | director | Award / grant | 4,545 | 37,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Ho Carole | director | Award / grant | 4,545 | 4,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | LOVE TED W | director | Award / grant | 4,545 | 58,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Norden Gregory | director | Award / grant | 4,545 | 196,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | WEATHERMAN ELIZABETH H | director | Award / grant | 4,545 | 13,103 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Urist Marshall | officer | Award / grant | 18,197 | 45,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Legorreta Pablo G. | director | Award / grant | 143,821 | 1,242,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Hite Christopher | director | Award / grant | 24,263 | 709,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Award / grant | 24,263 | 64,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bassler Bonnie L | director | Award / grant | 815 | 73,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Hite Christopher | director | Award / grant | 26,626 | 685,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Legorreta Pablo G. | director | Award / grant | 157,828 | 1,098,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Urist Marshall | officer | Award / grant | 19,970 | 27,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Award / grant | 26,626 | 49,511 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Bassler Bonnie L | director | Award / grant | 967 | 73,132 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Urist Marshall | officer | Conversion | 160,000 | 206,667 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Urist Marshall | officer | Conversion | 16,000 | 247,412 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Urist Marshall | officer | Award / grant | 4,626 | 43,882 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Award / grant | 6,168 | 58,510 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Lloyd George W. | officer | Award / grant | 6,168 | 58,510 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Hite Christopher | director | Award / grant | 6,168 | 658,510 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Legorreta Pablo G. | director | Award / grant | 36,559 | 940,955 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Bassler Bonnie L | director | Award / grant | 1,047 | 72,165 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-08 | Urist Marshall | officer | Gift | 3,000 | 263,412 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-08 | Lloyd George W. | officer | Gift | 8,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-08 | Coyne Terrance P. | officer | Gift | 1,000 | 43,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-08 | Legorreta Pablo G. | director | Gift | 60,000 | 692,701 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-08 | Norden Gregory | director | Conversion | 144,660 | 228,348 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.