RPM · TickerCove

RPMRPM International Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $99.78 · now $99.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RPM has typically landed between $88.71 and $111.98 — a range of −11.1% to +12.2% from the issuance price $99.78.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($99.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$99.78 · 25% of range

$92.27 low$122.91 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.7%

typical move · IQR 10.8%

−11.1%worst (p90)+12.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RPM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $99.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $99.78 (+0.0%)
typical $100.51 (+0.7%)
middle 50% $95.1–$105.92
90% range $88.71–$111.98

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-26	−36.6%	−36.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−36.5%	−36.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−33.5%	−33.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06	+53.5%	+0.0%	+53.5%
2009-03-05	+52.6%	−0.3%	+52.8%
2009-03-09	+45.2%	+0.0%	+51.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−1.6%

n=20

Feb

45%

−0.7%

n=20

Mar

55%

+2.0%

n=20

Apr

65%

+1.6%

n=20

May

65%

+2.4%

n=20

Jun

45%

−0.2%

n=20

Jul

65%

+5.1%

n=20

Aug

45%

−0.5%

n=20

Sep

40%

−0.4%

n=20

Oct

55%

+1.0%

n=20

Nov

75%

+3.6%

n=20

Dec

70%

+2.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-01-21	Kinser Timothy R.	officer	Sale	3,441 @ $110.31	$380K	−13.9% of holding	+2.3%	−14.0%	21,248	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11	Nance Frederick R.	director	Sale	792 @ $107.98	$86K	−9.0% of holding	−1.2%	−17.7%	8,002	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-31	FAZZOLARI SALVATORE D	director	Sale	375 @ $107.67	$40K	−1.7% of holding	−3.5%	−14.8%	21,578	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-06	Nance Frederick R.	director	Sale	1,000 @ $119.36	$119K	−11.9% of holding	+3.4%	−10.7%	7,394	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

84 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-05	SULLIVAN FRANK C	director	Disposition	106,529	1,106,748	Form 4
2026-08-05	SULLIVAN FRANK C	director	Option exercise	200,000	1,213,277	Form 4
2026-08-05	SULLIVAN FRANK C	director	Withheld for tax	40,753	1,065,995	Form 4
2026-08-05	SULLIVAN FRANK C	director	Option exercise	200,000	1,031,300	Form 4
2026-07-19	SULLIVAN FRANK C	director	Withheld for tax	3,813	1,013,277	Form 4
2026-07-19	Dennsteadt David C.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,455	31,154	Form 4
2026-07-19	Kastner Janeen B.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,137	135,127	Form 4
2026-07-19	Gordon Russell L	officer	Withheld for tax	1,137	80,282	Form 4
2026-07-19	Ratajczak Matthew T	officer	Withheld for tax	670	23,456	Form 4
2026-07-19	Laroche Michael J.	officer	Withheld for tax	524	15,376	Form 4
2026-07-19	Polanco Andrew G.	officer	Withheld for tax	511	12,901	Form 4
2026-07-19	Crandall Tracy D.	officer	Withheld for tax	488	26,468	Form 4
2026-07-15	Kastner Janeen B.	officer	Award / grant	21,500	211,500	Form 4
2026-07-15	Laroche Michael J.	officer	Award / grant	1,005	14,700	Form 4
2026-07-15	Laroche Michael J.	officer	Award / grant	1,200	15,900	Form 4
2026-07-15	Laroche Michael J.	officer	Award / grant	4,700	4,700	Form 4
2026-07-15	Ratajczak Matthew T	officer	Award / grant	1,500	24,126	Form 4
2026-07-15	SULLIVAN FRANK C	director	Award / grant	7,160	1,017,090	Form 4
2026-07-15	SULLIVAN FRANK C	director	Award / grant	129,500	1,231,300	Form 4
2026-07-15	Ratajczak Matthew T	officer	Award / grant	221	22,626	Form 4
2026-07-15	Crandall Tracy D.	officer	Award / grant	1,344	26,101	Form 4
2026-07-15	Crandall Tracy D.	officer	Award / grant	850	26,956	Form 4
2026-07-15	Crandall Tracy D.	officer	Award / grant	17,600	37,900	Form 4
2026-07-15	Dennsteadt David C.	officer	Award / grant	1,717	31,139	Form 4
2026-07-15	Dennsteadt David C.	officer	Award / grant	1,470	32,609	Form 4
2026-07-15	Dennsteadt David C.	officer	Award / grant	48,300	215,600	Form 4
2026-07-15	Gordon Russell L	officer	Award / grant	959	79,949	Form 4
2026-07-15	Gordon Russell L	officer	Award / grant	1,470	81,419	Form 4
2026-07-15	Gordon Russell L	officer	Award / grant	26,400	219,800	Form 4
2026-07-15	Kastner Janeen B.	officer	Award / grant	1,107	135,063	Form 4
2026-07-15	Kastner Janeen B.	officer	Award / grant	1,200	136,264	Form 4
2026-05-31	Gordon Russell L	officer	Withheld for tax	925	78,990	Form 4
2026-05-31	Kastner Janeen B.	officer	Withheld for tax	748	133,956	Form 4
2026-05-31	SULLIVAN FRANK C	director	Withheld for tax	496	1,009,930	Form 4
2026-05-31	Ratajczak Matthew T	officer	Withheld for tax	224	22,405	Form 4
2026-05-31	Kinser Timothy R.	officer	Withheld for tax	208	21,040	Form 4
2026-04-28	Gordon Russell L	officer	Disposition	14,752	151,259	Form 4
2026-04-28	Gordon Russell L	officer	Option exercise	30,000	166,011	Form 4
2026-04-28	Gordon Russell L	officer	Withheld for tax	5,038	85,020	Form 4
2026-04-28	Gordon Russell L	officer	Option exercise	30,000	160,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i