RPD · TickerCove

RPDRapid7, Inc.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.46 · now $12.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RPD has typically landed between $9.34 and $15.14 — a range of −25.0% to +21.5% from the issuance price $12.46.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,787 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$12.46 · 47% of range

$5.05 low$20.81 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.0%

typical move · IQR 17.7%

−25.0%worst (p90)+21.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where RPD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $12.46 (+0.0%)
typical $12.09 (-3.0%)
middle 50% $10.99–$13.2
90% range $9.34–$15.14

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,787 windows spanning 2015-07-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-01-22	−53.3%	−53.3%	+0.0%
2026-01-23	−51.8%	−51.8%	+1.9%
2026-01-26	−51.6%	−52.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-06-11	+81.9%	−11.1%	+81.9%
2026-06-17	+76.5%	−6.4%	+91.6%
2026-06-16	+76.0%	−8.5%	+87.2%

2,787 overlapping windows · 2015-07-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

+1.7%

n=11

Feb

64%

−2.4%

n=11

Mar

18%

−3.3%

n=11

Apr

64%

+1.8%

n=11

May

55%

+2.0%

n=11

Jun

45%

+1.2%

n=11

Jul

55%

+3.7%

n=11

Aug

58%

+8.8%

n=12

Sep

25%

−5.5%

n=12

Oct

64%

+0.5%

n=11

Nov

45%

−3.9%

n=11

Dec

36%

+1.6%

n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-22	Murphy Scott M	officer	Sale	827 @ $6.35	$5K	−2.0% of holding	+7.6%	not yet — horizon still open	40,201	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23	Murphy Scott M	officer	Sale	1,267 @ $6.51	$8K	−5.6% of holding	−2.7%	+86.7%	21,372	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-22	Murphy Scott M	officer	Sale	764 @ $12.70	$10K	−3.2% of holding	−52.3%	−35.4%	23,312	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-28	JANA Partners Management, LP	director	Purchase	41,545 @ $15.71	$653K	+0.6% of holding	−1.2%	−58.0%	6,760,149	Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-11-26	Schodorf Thomas E	director	Purchase	6,300 @ $15.70	$99K	+22.4% of holding	−2.1%	−55.9%	34,440	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25	JANA Partners Management, LP	director	Purchase	50,000 @ $15.01	$751K	+0.7% of holding	−2.1%	−58.0%	6,718,604	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25	Brown Marc Evan	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $15.21	$46K	+6.1% of holding	−2.1%	−58.0%	51,882	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24	JANA Partners Management, LP	director	Purchase	150,000 @ $14.13	$2.1M	+2.3% of holding	+4.4%	−61.1%	6,668,604	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24	Thomas Corey E.	director	Purchase	14,500 @ $13.82	$200K	+2.5% of holding	+4.4%	−61.1%	595,066	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24	Murphy Scott M	officer	Sale	1,370 @ $13.97	$19K	−5.3% of holding	+4.4%	−61.1%	24,482	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20	BURNS MIKE	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $13.80	$28K	+66.7% of holding	+7.5%	−63.4%	5,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-22	Murphy Scott M	officer	Sale	826 @ $19.10	$16K	−3.0% of holding	−26.0%	−76.5%	26,422	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22	Murphy Scott M	officer	Sale	1,370 @ $20.25	$28K	−4.7% of holding	−8.4%	−77.6%	27,592	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19	Murphy Scott M	officer	Sale	5,461 @ $21.29	$116K	−15.9% of holding	−8.1%	−74.1%	28,962	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13	JANA Partners Management, LP	director	Purchase	250,000 @ $21.26	$5.3M	+4.0% of holding	−10.2%	−73.0%	6,518,604	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-12	JANA Partners Management, LP	director	Purchase	163,456 @ $20.07	$3.3M	+2.7% of holding	−2.6%	−71.6%	6,268,604	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11	JANA Partners Management, LP	director	Purchase	358,738 @ $18.23	$6.5M	+6.2% of holding	+1.2%	−54.1%	6,105,148	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07	Luconi Christina	officer	Sale	9,982 @ $23.04	$230K	−14.1% of holding	−5.8%	−57.1%	60,734	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07	Luconi Christina	officer	Sale	2,569 @ $23.44	$60K	−4.2% of holding	−5.8%	−57.1%	58,165	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-07	Luconi Christina	officer	Sale	18,324 @ $28.59	$524K	−19.9% of holding	−8.3%	−42.9%	73,880	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07	Luconi Christina	officer	Sale	3,164 @ $29.19	$92K	−4.3% of holding	−8.3%	−42.9%	70,716	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-21	Thomas Corey E.	director	Sale	100,000 @ $39.38	$3.9M	−18.8% of holding	−18.6%	−48.0%	431,469	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-02	Thomas Corey E.	director	Sale	35,773 @ $39.60	$1.4M	−7.4% of holding	−4.4%	−44.8%	445,696	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-02	Thomas Corey E.	director	Sale	14,227 @ $40.77	$580K	−3.2% of holding	−4.4%	−44.8%	431,469	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Barrett Maria Bettina	director	Award / grant	34,909	34,909	Form 4
2026-08-15	Thomas Corey E.	director	Withheld for tax	7,726	643,274	Form 4
2026-08-15	Murphy Scott M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,060	37,738	Form 4
2026-07-15	Murphy Scott M	officer	Withheld for tax	344	38,798	Form 4
2026-06-15	MOHAMED WAEL	director	Award / grant	2,125,000	2,125,000	Form 4
2026-06-15	MOHAMED WAEL	director	Award / grant	841,515	857,315	Form 4
2026-06-09	MOHAMED WAEL	director	Withheld for tax	397	15,800	Form 4
2026-06-09	Galligan Kevin G.	director	Award / grant	15,208	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	BERRY MICHAEL J	director	Gift	8,420	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	BERRY MICHAEL J	director	Gift	8,420	26,170	Form 4
2026-06-09	BRUNER JUDY	director	Award / grant	15,208	69,820	Form 4
2026-06-09	BURNS MIKE	director	Award / grant	15,208	31,405	Form 4
2026-06-09	Brown Marc Evan	director	Award / grant	15,208	67,090	Form 4
2026-06-09	Holzman Benjamin	director	Award / grant	15,208	81,313	Form 4
2026-06-09	JANA Partners Management, LP	director	Other acquisition	15,208	6,775,357	Form 4
2026-06-09	Kalowski Jeffrey	director	Award / grant	57,390	57,390	Form 4
2026-06-09	Nye Benjamin	director	Award / grant	15,208	95,502	Form 4
2026-06-09	Schodorf Thomas E	director	Award / grant	15,208	49,648	Form 4
2026-06-09	Sondhi Reeny	director	Award / grant	15,208	37,425	Form 4
2026-05-15	Thomas Corey E.	director	Withheld for tax	5,357	651,000	Form 4
2026-05-15	Murphy Scott M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,059	39,142	Form 4
2026-04-15	Murphy Scott M	officer	Withheld for tax	344	21,028	Form 4
2026-03-31	Thomas Corey E.	director	Award / grant	1,125,000	1,125,000	Form 4
2026-03-31	Brown Rafeal E.	officer	Award / grant	275,000	275,000	Form 4
2026-02-17	Murphy Scott M	officer	Award / grant	20,000	41,028	Form 4
2026-02-15	Thomas Corey E.	director	Withheld for tax	22,328	655,084	Form 4
2026-02-15	Murphy Scott M	officer	Withheld for tax	673	22,639	Form 4
2026-02-15	Thomas Corey E.	director	Award / grant	64,667	677,412	Form 4
2026-01-15	Murphy Scott M	officer	Withheld for tax	406	24,076	Form 4
2025-12-18	Thomas Corey E.	director	Withheld for tax	182,321	612,745	Form 4
2025-12-18	Thomas Corey E.	director	Option exercise	200,000	795,066	Form 4
2025-12-18	Thomas Corey E.	director	Option exercise	200,000	0	Form 4
2025-12-01	Brown Rafeal E.	officer	Award / grant	466,999	466,999	Form 4
2025-11-15	Thomas Corey E.	director	Withheld for tax	12,969	580,566	Form 4
2025-11-15	Adams Timothy M	director	Withheld for tax	9,225	186,863	Form 4
2025-11-15	Murphy Scott M	officer	Withheld for tax	570	25,852	Form 4
2025-10-15	Murphy Scott M	officer	Withheld for tax	344	27,248	Form 4
2025-08-15	Thomas Corey E.	director	Withheld for tax	12,969	593,337	Form 4
2025-08-15	Adams Timothy M	director	Withheld for tax	9,225	196,088	Form 4
2025-08-15	Murphy Scott M	officer	Withheld for tax	570	34,423	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i