RPAYRepay Holdings CorporationTechnology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.80 · now $3.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, RPAY has typically landed between $2.84 and $4.66 — a range of −25.3% to +22.7% from the issuance price $3.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,032 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-07-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where RPAY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.84worst · -25.3%$4.66best · +22.7%
  • now $3.8 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.7 (-2.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.32–$4.07
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.84–$4.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,032 windows spanning 2018-07-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−40.5%−40.5%+0.0%
2020-02-20−38.4%−38.4%+0.1%
2025-10-24−38.1%−41.1%+2.2%
3 best
2022-11-09+85.4%+0.0%+105.5%
2022-11-08+66.7%−11.2%+82.6%
2022-11-07+60.8%−13.8%+77.2%

2,032 overlapping windows · 2018-07-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
38%
+0.3%
n=8
Feb
38%
−3.2%
n=8
Mar
25%
−6.3%
n=8
Apr
38%
+2.3%
n=8
May
63%
+5.4%
n=8
Jun
88%
+7.0%
n=8
Jul
63%
+0.5%
n=8
Aug
56%
−0.6%
n=9
Sep
33%
−5.9%
n=9
Oct
25%
−8.4%
n=8
Nov
75%
+4.9%
n=8
Dec
75%
+5.0%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$22026-04-09: 1 insider purchase, $212K — Forager Fund, L.P.2026-04-08: 1 insider purchase, $1.2M — Forager Fund, L.P.2026-04-07: 1 insider purchase, $847K — Forager Fund, L.P.2026-04-02: 1 insider purchase, $1.2M — Forager Fund, L.P.2026-04-01: 1 insider purchase, $1.2M — Forager Fund, L.P.2026-03-27: 1 insider purchase, $552K — Forager Fund, L.P.2026-03-26: 1 insider purchase, $873K — Forager Fund, L.P.2026-03-25: 1 insider purchase, $510K — Forager Fund, L.P.2025-11-17: 1 insider sale, $16K — THORNBURGH RICHARD E2025-09-12: 1 insider sale, $155K — Moore Jacob Hamilton2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $155K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $16K2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $1.9M2026-04: 5 open-market purchases, $4.7M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Purchase on 2026-04-09, filed same daytenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Purchase on 2026-04-08, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Purchase on 2026-04-07, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Purchase on 2026-04-02, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Purchase on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Purchase on 2026-03-27, filed same daytenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Purchase on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector THORNBURGH RICHARD E — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Moore Jacob Hamilton — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-09Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase78,991 @ $2.68$212K−0.7% of holding+15.3%not yet — horizon still open11,106,648Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-08Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase484,720 @ $2.57$1.2M−4.2% of holding+20.1%not yet — horizon still open11,027,657Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-07Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase350,000 @ $2.42$847K−3.2% of holding+32.4%not yet — horizon still open10,542,937Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-02Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase461,609 @ $2.53$1.2M−4.3% of holding+45.6%not yet — horizon still open10,192,937Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-01Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase488,391 @ $2.54$1.2M−4.8% of holding+40.2%not yet — horizon still open9,731,328Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-27Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase180,858 @ $3.05$552K−1.9% of holding+20.4%not yet — horizon still open9,242,937Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-26Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase287,200 @ $3.04$873K−3.1% of holding+22.0%not yet — horizon still open9,062,079Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-25Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase174,779 @ $2.92$510K−2.0% of holding+10.1%not yet — horizon still open8,774,879Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17THORNBURGH RICHARD EdirectorSale4,500 @ $3.50$16K−3.3% of holding+13.1%−13.5%131,456Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-12Moore Jacob HamiltonofficerSale26,385 @ $5.89$155K−12.0% of holding−20.8%−57.2%193,532Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Alias ShalerdirectorPurchase118 @ $4.15$490+0.0% of holding+11.4%−26.7%264,990Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-15Morris John Andrew Sr.directorPurchase86,761 @ $3.89$338Kownership Δ n/a+18.8%−23.3%86,761Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15Alias ShalerdirectorPurchase15,378 @ $3.93$60K+6.2% of holding+18.8%−23.3%264,782Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14Alias ShalerdirectorPurchase174,404 @ $4.15$724K+232.5% of holding+12.5%−30.8%249,404Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14Morris John Andrew Sr.directorPurchase163,041 @ $4.20$685K+181.2% of holding+12.5%−30.8%253,041Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11Murphy Timothy JohnofficerSale57,000 @ $8.25$470K−11.2% of holding−6.4%−43.9%450,879Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

105 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Houser Robert ScottofficerWithheld for tax8,733303,171Form 4
2026-07-31Sadek Zachary FdirectorAward / grant42,50042,500Form 4
2026-06-10GOEBEL MARYANNdirectorAward / grant50,295165,151Form 4
2026-06-10KIGHT PETER JdirectorAward / grant73,9641,744,034Form 4
2026-06-10THORNBURGH RICHARD EdirectorAward / grant50,295181,751Form 4
2026-06-10Rios Emnet LegessedirectorAward / grant50,295147,398Form 4
2026-06-10GARCIA PAUL RdirectorAward / grant50,295230,951Form 4
2026-06-01Watkin Richard JasonofficerAward / grant833,333833,433Form 4
2026-05-31Guthrie David MofficerAward / grant1,000458,185Form 4
2026-05-31Guthrie David MofficerWithheld for tax79458,106Form 4
2026-05-12Morrow Matthew EdwardofficerAward / grant260,416260,416Form 4
2026-05-07Sullivan Thomas EugeneofficerWithheld for tax3,897244,664Form 4
2026-03-19Morris John Andrew Sr.directorWithheld for tax51,9052,204,370Form 4
2026-03-19Guthrie David MofficerWithheld for tax6,627457,185Form 4
2026-03-19Dempsey Tyler BofficerWithheld for tax5,723491,251Form 4
2026-03-19Sullivan Thomas EugeneofficerWithheld for tax4,670248,561Form 4
2026-03-19Barnett NaomiofficerWithheld for tax3,313293,909Form 4
2026-03-11Barnett NaomiofficerAward / grant128,961297,222Form 4
2026-03-11Morris John Andrew Sr.directorAward / grant968,3092,256,275Form 4
2026-03-11Dempsey Tyler BofficerAward / grant176,056496,974Form 4
2026-03-11Sullivan Thomas EugeneofficerAward / grant91,549253,231Form 4
2026-03-11Houser Robert ScottofficerAward / grant193,661311,904Form 4
2026-03-11Guthrie David MofficerAward / grant207,570463,812Form 4
2026-03-05Morris John Andrew Sr.directorWithheld for tax38,4021,287,966Form 4
2026-03-05Guthrie David MofficerWithheld for tax7,641256,242Form 4
2026-03-05Dempsey Tyler BofficerWithheld for tax6,776320,918Form 4
2026-03-05Barnett NaomiofficerWithheld for tax5,105168,261Form 4
2026-03-05Sullivan Thomas EugeneofficerWithheld for tax3,624161,682Form 4
2026-02-23Morris John Andrew Sr.directorWithheld for tax12,1401,326,368Form 4
2026-02-23Alias ShalerdirectorWithheld for tax2,524549,720Form 4
2026-02-23Dempsey Tyler BofficerWithheld for tax2,239327,694Form 4
2026-02-23Guthrie David MofficerWithheld for tax2,110263,883Form 4
2026-02-23Sullivan Thomas EugeneofficerWithheld for tax1,354165,306Form 4
2026-02-23Barnett NaomiofficerWithheld for tax1,297173,366Form 4
2026-02-19Morris John Andrew Sr.directorWithheld for tax32,1911,338,508Form 4
2026-02-19Guthrie David MofficerWithheld for tax6,451265,993Form 4
2026-02-19Alias ShalerdirectorWithheld for tax5,500552,244Form 4
2026-02-19Dempsey Tyler BofficerWithheld for tax5,471329,933Form 4
2026-02-19Barnett NaomiofficerWithheld for tax4,008174,663Form 4
2026-02-19Sullivan Thomas EugeneofficerWithheld for tax2,846166,660Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.