ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $224.80 · now $224.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ROST has typically landed between $201.79 and $254.19 — a range of −10.2% to +13.1% from the issuance price $224.80.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($224.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ROST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $224.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$201.79worst · -10.2%$254.19best · +13.1%
  • now $224.8 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $229.29 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $216.79–$241.79
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $201.79–$254.19
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−50.9%−50.9%+1.1%
2020-02-21−48.8%−51.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−48.2%−51.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+53.0%+0.0%+53.0%
2020-03-23+33.3%+0.0%+45.8%
2020-03-19+33.1%−3.2%+41.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$76.6B
market cap
$7.16
EPS (TTM)
33.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-20
next earnings
Revenue$22.8B
'20'25
Net income$2.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr9.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr34.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.84
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $224.80$109.17$303.39
  • DCF (intrinsic)$122.56
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$170.56
  • Analyst target · range $230.00–$290.00$260.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$224.80

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+0.8%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Mar
47%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
74%
+3.3%
n=19
May
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Jun
42%
−1.5%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.9%
n=19
Aug
68%
+2.7%
n=19
Sep
63%
+1.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.9%
n=18
Nov
67%
+5.8%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$255$1442026-09-14: 2 insider sales, $12.8M — Conroy James Grant, Brinkley Stephen C2026-03-26: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Sheehan William W II2026-03-25: 2 insider sales, $4.6M — Hartshorn Michael J., Sykes Karen2026-03-24: 3 insider sales, $3.7M — Fleming Karen, Hartshorn Michael J., Brinkley Stephen C2026-03-10: 2 insider sales, $948K — Sykes Karen, Mueller Patricia H2025-10-08: 1 insider sale, $972K — Brinkley Stephen C2025-09-25: 1 insider sale, $437K — Fleming Karen2025-09-24: 1 insider sale, $5.7M — Conroy James Grant2025-09-04: 1 insider sale, $607K — Sykes Karen2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $151K — Fleming Karen2025-09: 4 open-market sales, $6.9M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $972K2026-03: 8 open-market sales, $10.3M2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $12.8M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Conroy James Grant — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brinkley Stephen C — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sheehan William W II — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hartshorn Michael J. — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sykes Karen — Sale on 2026-03-25, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Fleming Karen — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hartshorn Michael J. — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Brinkley Stephen C — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sykes Karen — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Mueller Patricia H — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Brinkley Stephen C — Sale on 2025-10-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Fleming Karen — Sale on 2025-09-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Conroy James Grant — Sale on 2025-09-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sykes Karen — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Fleming Karen — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Conroy James GrantdirectorSale49,205 @ $229.48$11.3M−26.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open134,349Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14Brinkley Stephen CofficerSale6,424 @ $229.66$1.5M−11.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open51,665Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-26Sheehan William W IIofficerSale4,883 @ $216.95$1.1M−13.5% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open31,339Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-25Hartshorn Michael J.directorSale15,813 @ $214.91$3.4M−12.0% of holding−3.9%not yet — horizon still open116,028Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-25Sykes KarenofficerSale5,506 @ $213.40$1.2M−5.0% of holding−3.9%not yet — horizon still open104,648Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-24Fleming KarenofficerSale7,000 @ $212.75$1.5M−7.1% of holding−3.3%not yet — horizon still open91,407Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-24Hartshorn Michael J.directorSale6,061 @ $214.52$1.3M−4.4% of holding−3.3%not yet — horizon still open131,841Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-24Brinkley Stephen CofficerSale4,154 @ $212.91$884K−6.0% of holding−3.3%not yet — horizon still open64,743Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Sykes KarenofficerSale2,556 @ $213.91$547K−2.4% of holding+5.2%−7.0%103,945Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Mueller Patricia HdirectorSale1,881 @ $213.13$401K−46.6% of holding+5.2%−7.0%2,159Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-08Brinkley Stephen CofficerSale6,437 @ $150.97$972K−10.1% of holding+5.8%+44.6%57,012Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-25Fleming KarenofficerSale2,932 @ $149.09$437K−3.2% of holding+2.0%+45.4%88,335Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-24Conroy James GrantdirectorSale39,351 @ $146.00$5.7M−20.0% of holding+3.2%+45.9%157,153Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-04Sykes KarenofficerSale4,000 @ $151.76$607K−3.6% of holding−3.2%+35.1%106,413Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-03Fleming KarenofficerSale1,000 @ $151.06$151K−1.1% of holding−0.4%+36.8%92,174Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-02BALMUTH MICHAELdirectorSale11,261 @ $131.60$1.5M−15.8% of holding+5.7%−0.6%59,790Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-02Sykes KarenofficerSale5,036 @ $130.48$657K−4.4% of holding+5.7%−0.6%110,365Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-31Fleming KarenofficerSale5,270 @ $127.70$673K−5.4% of holding+9.6%+0.1%93,126Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-25Hartshorn Michael J.directorSale10,258 @ $129.10$1.3M−7.4% of holding+14.2%+1.7%128,833Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-24Hartshorn Michael J.directorSale7,492 @ $127.69$957K−5.1% of holding+13.7%−2.8%139,091Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Fleming KarenofficerSale5,339 @ $125.73$671K−5.4% of holding+17.6%+0.6%94,063Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Conroy James GrantdirectorWithheld for tax41,372183,554Form 4
2026-09-11Brinkley Stephen CofficerWithheld for tax6,65458,089Form 4
2026-09-11Fleming KarenofficerWithheld for tax90790,562Form 4
2026-05-29GARRETT SHARON DdirectorGift1,354215,059Form 4
2026-05-29Mueller Patricia HdirectorGift1,3543,513Form 4
2026-05-29GARRETT SHARON DdirectorGift1,3542,113Form 4
2026-05-29Mueller Patricia HdirectorGift1,3542,113Form 4
2026-05-21MILLIGAN STEPHEN DdirectorAward / grant89622,888Form 4
2026-05-21BJORKLUND GUNNAR KdirectorAward / grant89623,838Form 4
2026-05-21BJORKLUND GUNNAR KdirectorAward / grant64324,481Form 4
2026-05-21BUSH MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant89637,554Form 4
2026-05-21Cannizzaro Edward GdirectorAward / grant8968,273Form 4
2026-05-21GARRETT SHARON DdirectorAward / grant8963,467Form 4
2026-05-21Mueller Patricia HdirectorAward / grant8963,467Form 4
2026-05-21Sutton DonieldirectorAward / grant8968,917Form 4
2026-03-27Burrill Jeffrey PofficerGift56534,926Form 4
2026-03-20Hartshorn Michael J.directorWithheld for tax22,654137,902Form 4
2026-03-20Fleming KarenofficerWithheld for tax9,93198,407Form 4
2026-03-20Sykes KarenofficerWithheld for tax8,947110,154Form 4
2026-03-20Conroy James GrantdirectorWithheld for tax8,268224,926Form 4
2026-03-20Sheehan William W IIofficerWithheld for tax4,61736,222Form 4
2026-03-20Burrill Jeffrey PofficerWithheld for tax2,97035,491Form 4
2026-03-20Brinkley Stephen CofficerWithheld for tax2,80268,897Form 4
2026-03-20Sykes KarenofficerAward / grant8,579119,101Form 4
2026-03-20Hartshorn Michael J.directorAward / grant23,163160,556Form 4
2026-03-20Brinkley Stephen CofficerAward / grant8,57971,699Form 4
2026-03-20Conroy James GrantdirectorAward / grant54,901233,194Form 4
2026-03-20Sheehan William W IIofficerAward / grant2,57440,839Form 4
2026-03-20Burrill Jeffrey PofficerAward / grant1,71638,461Form 4
2026-03-20Fleming KarenofficerAward / grant12,868108,338Form 4
2026-03-16Fleming KarenofficerAward / grant7,04795,470Form 4
2026-03-11Brinkley Stephen CofficerAward / grant6,10863,120Form 4
2026-03-11Sheehan William W IIofficerAward / grant5,63838,265Form 4
2026-03-11Burrill Jeffrey PofficerAward / grant1,88036,745Form 4
2026-03-11Conroy James GrantdirectorAward / grant21,140178,293Form 4
2026-03-11Sykes KarenofficerAward / grant6,577110,522Form 4
2026-03-11Hartshorn Michael J.directorAward / grant8,456137,393Form 4
2026-03-10BUSH MICHAEL JdirectorGift1,00036,658Form 4
2025-10-09BALMUTH MICHAELdirectorGift38359,503Form 4
2025-10-01Burrill Jeffrey PofficerAward / grant4,57034,825Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2025-09-172025-08-18$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.