Issued 2026-09-16 at $375.82 · now $375.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ROP has typically landed between $337.21 and $409.05 — a range of −10.3% to +8.8% from the issuance price $375.82.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($375.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ROP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $375.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $375.82 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $376.68 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $363.75–$389.61
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $337.21–$409.05
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-25 | −36.3% | −36.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −34.3% | −34.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −33.3% | −34.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +23.5% | +0.0% | +26.8% |
| 2026-06-29 | +22.2% | +0.0% | +22.2% |
| 2026-07-22 | +21.9% | +0.0% | +21.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$1,121
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$735.67
- Analyst target · range $355.00–$550.00$440.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$375.82
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Stipancich John K | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $379.05 | $758K | −5.3% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,634 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-24 | WALLMAN RICHARD F | director | Sale | 6,434 @ $361.00 | $2.3M | −46.4% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,423 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Joyce Thomas Patrick JR | director | Purchase | 1,400 @ $358.46 | $502K | ownership Δ n/a | −0.4% | −0.5% | 1,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Conley Jason | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $445.56 | $2.7M | −16.0% of holding | −0.2% | −36.4% | 31,522 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $452.39 | $3.6M | +9.2% of holding | −1.8% | −38.0% | 95,311 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-12 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $451.57 | $903K | +2.1% of holding | −1.8% | −38.0% | 97,311 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-12 | BRINKLEY AMY WOODS | director | Purchase | 1,200 @ $450.71 | $541K | +7.1% of holding | −1.8% | −38.0% | 18,184 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-11 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Sale | 14,143 @ $442.96 | $6.3M | −12.2% of holding | −0.3% | −38.1% | 101,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Sale | 9,055 @ $443.68 | $4.0M | −8.9% of holding | −0.3% | −38.1% | 92,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Sale | 2,839 @ $444.75 | $1.3M | −3.1% of holding | −0.3% | −38.1% | 89,876 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Sale | 1,725 @ $445.57 | $769K | −1.9% of holding | −0.3% | −38.1% | 88,151 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Sale | 1,398 @ $441.97 | $618K | −1.2% of holding | −0.3% | −38.1% | 115,913 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Sale | 479 @ $446.61 | $214K | −0.5% of holding | −0.3% | −38.1% | 87,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Sale | 361 @ $448.40 | $162K | −0.4% of holding | −0.3% | −38.1% | 87,311 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | JOHNSON ROBERT D | director | Sale | 200 @ $529.15 | $106K | −4.3% of holding | −7.7% | −46.9% | 4,494 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | JOHNSON ROBERT D | director | Sale | 200 @ $521.64 | $104K | −4.1% of holding | −6.2% | −44.9% | 4,694 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Stipancich John K | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $564.17 | $846K | −3.7% of holding | −5.6% | −35.8% | 38,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | WALLMAN RICHARD F | director | Sale | 352 @ $556.25 | $196K | −1.7% of holding | −5.6% | −37.6% | 20,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | WRIGHT CHRISTOPHER | director | Sale | 350 @ $572.22 | $200K | −1.0% of holding | −6.3% | −43.2% | 34,284 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Conley Jason | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $588.19 | $1.8M | −8.7% of holding | +3.2% | −19.7% | 31,522 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Cross Brandon L | officer | Sale | 750 @ $577.83 | $433K | −36.1% of holding | +6.7% | −11.7% | 1,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | Conley Jason | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $578.05 | $1.7M | −8.7% of holding | +5.7% | −10.3% | 31,522 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | Stipancich John K | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $578.04 | $578K | −2.5% of holding | +5.7% | −10.3% | 38,932 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | WALLMAN RICHARD F | director | Sale | 351 @ $575.25 | $202K | −1.7% of holding | +5.7% | −10.3% | 20,187 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
61 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Stipancich John K | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Stipancich John K | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 37,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | WALLMAN RICHARD F | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 13,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | ARCHAMBEAU SHELLYE L | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 9,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Murphy John Francis | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 2,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | JOHNSON ROBERT D | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 5,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thatcher Laura G | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 22,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | BRINKLEY AMY WOODS | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 19,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | ESTEVES IRENE M | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 5,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Joyce Thomas Patrick JR | director | Award / grant | 1,191 | 5,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | WALLMAN RICHARD F | director | Award / grant | 92 | 12,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Joyce Thomas Patrick JR | director | Award / grant | 85 | 3,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | ARCHAMBEAU SHELLYE L | director | Award / grant | 92 | 8,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | ESTEVES IRENE M | director | Award / grant | 85 | 3,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Withheld for tax | 12,854 | 84,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Stipancich John K | director | Withheld for tax | 3,198 | 35,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Conley Jason | director | Withheld for tax | 3,065 | 28,457 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cross Brandon L | officer | Withheld for tax | 110 | 1,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cross Brandon L | officer | Award / grant | 972 | 2,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Stipancich John K | director | Award / grant | 24,494 | 24,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cross Brandon L | officer | Award / grant | 230 | 1,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Award / grant | 67,495 | 67,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Conley Jason | director | Award / grant | 26,535 | 26,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cross Brandon L | officer | Award / grant | 3,626 | 3,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | WALLMAN RICHARD F | director | Gift | 4,000 | 12,574 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Conley Jason | director | Option exercise | 6,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Conley Jason | director | Option exercise | 6,000 | 37,522 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-11 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 117,311 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-11 | HUNN LAURENCE NEIL | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | ESTEVES IRENE M | director | Award / grant | 59 | 3,775 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | ARCHAMBEAU SHELLYE L | director | Award / grant | 64 | 8,194 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Joyce Thomas Patrick JR | director | Award / grant | 59 | 3,775 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | WALLMAN RICHARD F | director | Award / grant | 64 | 16,574 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-24 | Stipancich John K | director | Gift | 100 | 38,832 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | Stipancich John K | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 40,432 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-23 | Stipancich John K | director | Option exercise | 1,500 | 2,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-22 | WALLMAN RICHARD F | director | Gift | 4,000 | 16,510 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | ESTEVES IRENE M | director | Award / grant | 675 | 3,716 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Thatcher Laura G | director | Award / grant | 675 | 20,924 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Murphy John Francis | director | Award / grant | 675 | 1,496 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-03-30 | 2026-02-27 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-03-30 | 2026-02-27 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2026-03-30 | 2026-02-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.