Issued 2026-09-16 at $52.44 · now $52.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ROOT has typically landed between $35.62 and $78.95 — a range of −32.1% to +50.6% from the issuance price $52.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,455 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($52.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ROOT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $52.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $52.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $49.97 (-4.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $42.08–$57.87
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.62–$78.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,455 windows spanning 2020-10-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-08-05 | −56.2% | −56.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-08 | −55.5% | −55.9% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-04 | −53.0% | −53.0% | +4.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-02-15 | +548.4% | −4.9% | +548.4% |
| 2024-02-07 | +522.7% | +0.0% | +522.7% |
| 2024-02-14 | +506.5% | −0.6% | +506.5% |
1,455 overlapping windows · 2020-10-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+3.6%
n=6
Feb
33%
+43.5%
n=6
Mar
33%
+11.2%
n=6
Apr
50%
+3.3%
n=6
May
17%
−11.5%
n=6
Jun
67%
+16.1%
n=6
Jul
33%
−1.9%
n=6
Aug
33%
−15.7%
n=6
Sep
0%
−15.5%
n=6
Oct
40%
−2.3%
n=5
Nov
50%
+16.5%
n=6
Dec
17%
−16.9%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,606 @ $55.96 | $90K | −2.3% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,356 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,706 @ $55.74 | $95K | −2.4% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,962 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,706 @ $44.35 | $76K | −2.3% of holding | +12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 4,112 @ $42.33 | $174K | −5.3% of holding | +12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,990 @ $44.78 | $179K | −4.6% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,999 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,990 @ $45.00 | $180K | −4.4% of holding | +6.0% | −0.6% | 85,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,900 @ $43.61 | $170K | −4.2% of holding | −3.9% | +1.3% | 89,979 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,900 @ $44.97 | $175K | −4.0% of holding | +4.4% | +4.2% | 93,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Ulman Doug | director | Sale | 13,152 @ $45.11 | $593K | −32.7% of holding | +2.8% | +7.4% | 27,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,900 @ $48.05 | $187K | −3.8% of holding | −3.5% | +1.3% | 97,779 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 3,900 @ $47.88 | $187K | −3.7% of holding | −6.1% | +2.7% | 101,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Sale | 6,336 @ $83.00 | $526K | −4.0% of holding | −6.1% | −42.8% | 151,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Bonakdarpour Mahtiyar | officer | Sale | 5,750 @ $83.00 | $477K | −2.1% of holding | −6.1% | −42.8% | 266,807 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Sale | 6,711 @ $88.52 | $594K | −4.0% of holding | −5.5% | −52.8% | 161,492 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Bonakdarpour Mahtiyar | officer | Sale | 5,750 @ $89.74 | $516K | −2.1% of holding | −5.5% | −52.8% | 274,226 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Sale | 2,722 @ $89.43 | $243K | −1.7% of holding | −5.5% | −52.8% | 158,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Sale | 1,022 @ $90.22 | $92K | −0.6% of holding | −5.5% | −52.8% | 157,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Sale | 406 @ $87.89 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | −5.5% | −52.8% | 168,203 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $149.16 | $373K | −4.6% of holding | −17.2% | −57.8% | 52,150 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Szudarek Julie | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $155.00 | $233K | −11.3% of holding | −23.8% | −61.0% | 11,832 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Szudarek Julie | director | Sale | 2,790 @ $133.80 | $373K | −17.3% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 13,332 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | DEVARD JERRI | director | Sale | 1,895 @ $141.50 | $268K | −9.3% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 18,532 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 592 @ $140.48 | $83K | −3.9% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 14,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 589 @ $139.36 | $82K | −3.7% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 15,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 381 @ $138.34 | $53K | −2.3% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 15,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 341 @ $133.50 | $46K | −2.0% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 16,692 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 289 @ $141.51 | $41K | −2.0% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 14,375 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 158 @ $136.18 | $22K | −1.0% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 16,354 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 128 @ $137.55 | $18K | −0.8% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 16,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 129 @ $135.53 | $17K | −0.8% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 16,512 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 95 @ $142.21 | $14K | −0.7% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 14,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 99 @ $132.84 | $13K | −0.6% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 17,033 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Sale | 51 @ $134.68 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −16.0% | −57.5% | 16,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Sale | 5,430 @ $130.60 | $709K | −3.1% of holding | −15.2% | −58.5% | 171,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Bonakdarpour Mahtiyar | officer | Sale | 5,256 @ $130.60 | $686K | −1.8% of holding | −15.2% | −58.5% | 281,645 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Sale | 2,860 @ $130.60 | $374K | −1.7% of holding | −15.2% | −58.5% | 168,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Malka Meyer | director | Sale | 223,978 @ $135.80 | $30.4M | −30.7% of holding | −12.5% | −68.5% | 504,822 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-30 | Malka Meyer | director | Sale | 725 @ $139.26 | $101K | −0.1% of holding | −12.5% | −68.5% | 503,800 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-30 | Malka Meyer | director | Sale | 297 @ $137.16 | $41K | −0.1% of holding | −12.5% | −68.5% | 504,525 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-02 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Sale | 7,353 @ $124.78 | $918K | −4.0% of holding | +13.9% | −46.5% | 176,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | Bonakdarpour Mahtiyar | officer | Sale | 5,515 @ $124.78 | $688K | −1.9% of holding | +13.9% | −46.5% | 286,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Sale | 1,144 @ $134.01 | $153K | −0.7% of holding | +6.7% | −51.4% | 161,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-24 | Ulman Doug | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $175.00 | $350K | −24.4% of holding | −10.2% | −60.7% | 6,201 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Ulman Doug | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $138.53 | $554K | −39.2% of holding | −7.7% | −46.1% | 6,201 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
153 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | CARVANA GROUP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 305,112 | 305,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CARVANA GROUP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,491,907 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CARVANA GROUP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,435,820 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CARVANA GROUP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,452,587 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CARVANA GROUP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,503,428 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | CARVANA GROUP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,287,916 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Forish Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 88 | 24,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Binkley Megan | officer | Gift | 1,523 | 112,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Forish Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 294 | 24,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Forish Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 490 | 24,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ulman Doug | director | Award / grant | 2,864 | 3,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Szudarek Julie | director | Award / grant | 2,864 | 14,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Birnbaum Beth A | director | Award / grant | 2,864 | 17,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | DEVARD JERRI | director | Award / grant | 2,864 | 21,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Dorsey Donna | director | Award / grant | 2,864 | 12,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hilsheimer Lawrence A. | director | Award / grant | 2,864 | 43,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | KRAMER NANCY J | director | Award / grant | 2,864 | 20,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Forish Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 351 | 25,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Forish Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 82 | 25,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Withheld for tax | 28,557 | 275,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bonakdarpour Mahtiyar | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,198 | 372,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Withheld for tax | 14,965 | 244,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bonakdarpour Mahtiyar | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,882 | 348,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Binkley Megan | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,081 | 111,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,081 | 73,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,480 | 240,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,874 | 77,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Binkley Megan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,131 | 113,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bonakdarpour Mahtiyar | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,642 | 359,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,442 | 80,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Allison Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 6,442 | 8,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Option exercise | 62,969 | 303,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Timm Alexander E. | director | Option exercise | 62,969 | 83,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Binkley Megan | officer | Option exercise | 4,777 | 115,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Binkley Megan | officer | Option exercise | 4,777 | 6,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bonakdarpour Mahtiyar | officer | Option exercise | 43,043 | 391,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Bonakdarpour Mahtiyar | officer | Option exercise | 43,043 | 57,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Forish Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 294 | 25,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Forish Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 489 | 25,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Forish Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 6,620 | 26,316 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.